Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Slp is in canada so I don't buy it...looks more like a fropa to me when looped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Slp is in canada so I don't buy it...looks more like a fropa to me when looped. We get snow and warm into the 30s but the arctic air returns next Monday..basically a 40 degree turnaround from what the gfs showed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Slp is in canada so I don't buy it...looks more like a fropa to me when looped. We get snow and warm into the 30s but the arctic air returns next Monday..basically a 40 degree turnaround from what the gfs showed yesterday arctic air retirns vua the fropa...I have the flu sorry if I am repeating myself. I suppose it can be looked at as a northern displaced clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 arctic air retirns vua the fropa...I have the flu sorry if I am repeating myself. I suppose it can be looked at as a northern displaced clipper.No the snow is 2 days before the fropa.Ahh there are 2 chances...snow again on Tuesday with the fropa..I was talking about Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 That's true, but the effects will be fleeting after the end of January if we go COD again. The Pacific retrogression will drop the PNA and allow the SE ridge to potentially become a player like the JMA is showing for February. The blocking is more polar like the Euro, but we can get lucky if a piece of the ridge migrates over closer to the Davis Strait at least briefly sometime in February. The current forecast of below normal temperatures through February 2-3 is in line with the MJO forecast. ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif post-564-0-14465800-1389876898.png I found the ECMWF too weak as well. That JMA forecast should be treated with skepticism. Since the JMA ensemble show more MJO progression into phase 8: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/FebruaryPhase7500mb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Anyone following the wind/rainstorm (980mb. but to our west)showing up for the SuperBowl. This could easily adjust to a snowstorm. Super cold air is injested and sucked in to this system as it leaves--- near 0 again for 2/3,4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Anyone following the wind/rainstorm (980mb. but to our west)showing up for the SuperBowl. This could easily adjust to a snowstorm. Super cold air is injested and sucked in to this system as it leaves--- near 0 again for 2/3,4? Too far off at this point. The gfs has been clueless in the 7-10 day range..forget 14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I found the ECMWF too weak as well. That JMA forecast should be treated with skepticism. Since the JMA ensemble show more MJO progression into phase 8: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/FebruaryPhase7500mb.gif That's not the same JMA used in monthly forecasts which has been on a roll since it nailed the trough progression back in November. November 17th Dec and Jan forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 That's not the same JMA used in monthly forecasts which has been on a roll since it nailed the pattern progression back in November. November 17th Dec and Jan forecast: Screen shot 2014-01-19 at 12.56.56 PM.png How do you know it's not the same? Where do you get these forecasts from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 How do you know it's not the same? Where do you get these forecasts from? I am using the monthly forecast system which is different from the 10 day ENS forecast that you posted. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs has a couple snow chances.. First next weekend and more significant on the 28th-29th with no warmup until after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Beautiful GFS run. Cold most of the way through with several chances of significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Beautiful GFS run. Cold most of the way through with several chances of significant snowYeah no warmup whatsoever now. Slight moderation yes but cold air comes right back in. Not to mention its showing a borderline SECS during the super bowl lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Beautiful GFS run. Cold most of the way through with several chances of significant snow Yeah no warmup whatsoever now. Slight moderation yes but cold air comes right back in. I think during the relaxing of the cold is when we may get a monster storm...maybe early february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think during the relaxing of the cold is when we may get a monster storm...maybe early february It has a super bowl snowstorm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS and Euro are cold in the long range. Once the cold gets here, it is here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The GFS operational s LR pattern is very similar to what the Euro ensembles look like which matches the look of FEB 500 MB JMA monthly. There's blocking accross from the NPAC thru Alaska over the pole and into W Greenland .This will Keep you're source region air from the arctic and is not polar pacific air . Also there is a SE ridge Which was a great pattern in Feb 94 , this look could create a nice baroclinic zone . So you may start to see systems hopefully run out from from Amarillo to AC ( ala the wx maps for the SB ) . Gone is the torch for next week , and like I've been saying for a week now this is a pattern with multiple events Its not 1 and done and neither is the cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The GFS operational s LR pattern is very similar to what the Euro ensembles look like which matches the look of FEB 500 MB JMA monthly. There's blocking accross from the NPAC thru Alaska over the pole and into W Greenland .This will Keep you're source region air from the arctic and is not polar pacific air . Also there is a SE ridge Which was a great pattern in Feb 94 , this look could create a nice baroclinic zone . So you may start to see systems hopefully run out from from Amarillo to AC ( ala the wx maps for the SB ) . Gone is the torch for next week , and like I've been saying for a week now this is a pattern with multiple events Its not 1 and done and neither is the cold . We should transition to more of a gradient pattern after February 2-4 . But since we don't have cold of 94, we'll run a little warmer maybe settling into a back and forth pattern finishing the month 0 to +1.5. We'll need weaker storms to get front end thumps as stronger storms will cut once the retrograde in the Pacific and the PNA goes neutral to negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We should transition to more of a gradient pattern after February 2nd. But since we don't have cold of 94, we'll run a little warmer maybe settling into a back and forth pattern finishing the month 0 to +1.5. We'll need weaker storms to get front end thumps as stronger storms will cut once the retrograde in the Pacific drops the PNA. I like what Dec did and we were really 1 below until that 2 day torch. , 1 below in Feb is just cold enough for me , with a NEG EPO and those higher heights over the top I'm just hopping we can push enough low level cold air into W to E systems . You will open the jet underneath and the SE ridge flexes If the baroclinic zone is in AC we are in business . North and we are not happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I like what Dec did and we were really 1 below until that 2 day torch. , 1 below in Feb is just cold enough for me , with a NEG EPO and those higher heights over the top I'm just hopping we can push enough low level cold air into W to E systems . You will open the jet underneath and the SE ridge flexes If the baroclinic zone is in AC we are in business . North and we are not happy The timing reminds me of 2011 where we had snow and cold the end of January with the pattern shift occurring with the Groundhog Day storm. The strongest MJO wave of that winter like this one was right around this week before we went COD for February. Notice how the greatest amplitude was also in Phase 7 like now. Obviously, we are missing the epic Atlantic blocking from November into January that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With the coming cold, will probobly be running a -3.5 degree or so departure by the end of the week. With more cold coming after that ,could be an impressively cold month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With the coming cold, will probobly be running a -3.5 degree or so departure by the end of the week. With more cold coming after that ,could be an impressively cold month. It looks like NYC will finish January in the upper 20's with the new average being 32.6 for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is now showing a snow event for next Monday with cold conditions continuing in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just have to say, enjoy the "warm" weather today because it's done for a long time. We're talking some major ice and snow build up for some time to come, which could eventually lead to major ice jams. We may not touch freezing for a very long time, 10 or so days if not more (maybe briefly this weekend). Can't wait for most people to start complaining about how much cold and snow there is lol though I can't deny that it could cause several major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Anyone see ACE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Anyone see ACE ? I think most of us knew that everyone relying on GFS surface maps touting cold and dry would eventually end up in trouble. Earthlight has been deadly this winter, kudos to him. On a separate note, I'm going to the Rangers outdoor games at Yankee Stadium. Both nights look bone chilling. Would be crazy to have it snow on one or both games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think most of us knew that everyone relying on GFS surface maps touting cold and dry would eventually end up in trouble. Earthlight has been deadly this winter, kudos to him. On a separate note, I'm going to the Rangers outdoor games at Yankee Stadium. Both nights look bone chilling. Would be crazy to have it snow on one or both games! I tried to warn him . But it was all in good fun . Have a shot at one at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yea I'm going to the Islander/Ranger one. Gonna be cooold! And ps Ace gracefully admitted defeat on the other board. No need to poke the bear lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yea I'm going to the Islander/Ranger one. Gonna be cooold! And ps Ace gracefully admitted defeat on the other board. No need to poke the bear lol. Love ACE , he gave his reasoning , it was sound , could have easily broke his . Models caught this in 36 hours , no one was on this a week ago . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yea I'm going to the Islander/Ranger one. Gonna be cooold! And ps Ace gracefully admitted defeat on the other board. No need to poke the bear lol. Ya I'll be at that one…and it's a night game . Looks like we'll be dealing with a departing clipper. wrt to ace…i was out of line. Sometimes the boards get the best of us. When it comes down to it, it's just weather and it's what brings us all together…so if ur reading this, sorry ace… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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