REDMK6GLI Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 the ao forecasts are backing off going negative and look neutral at best...I'd look for more of what we got in the first part of December with colder temperatures and Atlantic...we could see a storm with an inch and a half of precipitation with 8-10" of snow with ice on top...that would be the tops for NYC in a plus ao scenario...The -AO was always in question anyways and the NAO is far from going negative as well. Dont see lots of things going right at this point that would be more than a SECS for the tristate area. Until there will be more concrete evidence that indices will turn favorable across the board dont expect a BIG east coast storm, simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The Euro is frigid in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The Euro is frigid in the long range.-40C 850s showing up over Quebec at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 and they stay in quebec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 and they stay in quebec... Were not that "far" off from getting the real cold in our area but teleconnectors have got to start showing more of a pronouced change. Otherwise this will be seasonably cold arctic air and nothing more i think, enough to bring some snow certainly but nothing thats screaming epic record cold or the pattern being a ticking time bomb for a huge snowstorm on the EC. Its quite feasible we may not even cash in on the good snow opportunities and ive seen that happen before. Just LOTS of variables still to iron out as we head towards jan. 1st 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 That's only slightly cooler than today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 and they stay in quebec... That's only slightly cooler than today Peas in a pod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 The Euro ensembles have about a -13 daily departure around the New Year which translates to 26/15 for NYC. EDH100-168.gif That really isnt severe frigid cold so to speak, ive experienced alot colder than that and 26/15 in my opinion is just below normal cold. However, not having us deep in the ice box may help us in not being in suppression city with being in the heart of the cold. Sometimes cant have the best of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 That's only slightly cooler than today That's only slightly cooler than today Right which is about 10 below normal. If u want a zero reading go move to burlington vt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Both the 12z Euro OP and the GFS are much colder than the Euro Ensembles for Jan 2 and 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 That's only slightly cooler than todayAre you that ADK weather guy buy any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I don't want severe cold. I want snow. That's it. If it's cold enough to snow, even at 33F, Ill take it. Too cold usually snow in the Carolina's. Not what I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I thought most were looking for snow? If that's the case then you don't want severe cold. You want severe cold if you want the LI sound to freeze over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 I thought most were looking for snow? If that's the case then you don't want severe cold. You want severe cold if you want the LI sound to freeze over Most are but some think the severe cold will give a better chance of no mixing with storms. What they dont realize are they're were storms that were teens/low 20's to start and still changed to rain. Very rarely will you have a 96' where it will be very cold and still pour snow. Think best chances for snow will be during reloading scenarios or periods where the heart of the cold will not be overly oppressive. We want to see some STJ mixed with the northern jet at the right timing for the good storms, cold air and tons of moisture=snow bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Easy error to pick out here at D 13 , you can see it sends the trough back into the WEST .That's likely WRONG the Euro loves to lift air and send W over the Rockies , Future runs to see more Trough in the East . PNA is still pos , theres some blocking in the NA and now blocking is showing up over the top . Don't take the Ensembles as Gospel this morning , they should trend colder in future runs during this time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Easy error to pick out here at D 13 , you can see it sends the trough back into the WEST .That's likely WRONG the Euro loves to lift air and send W over the Rockies , Future runs to see more Trough in the East . PNA is still pos , theres some blocking in the NA and now blocking is showing up over the top . Don't take the Ensembles as Gospel this morning , they should trend colder in future runs during this time . We need the blocking to do two things lock in the cold air and also help the storm track become favorable along the east coast. I see what your saying here though with the ECMWF run its wrong and will correct in future runs. Having signs of blocking showing up on the models is encouraging though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Easy error to pick out here at D 13 , you can see it sends the trough back into the WEST .That's likely WRONG the Euro loves to lift air and send W over the Rockies , Future runs to see more Trough in the East . PNA is still pos , theres some blocking in the NA and now blocking is showing up over the top . Don't take the Ensembles as Gospel this morning , they should trend colder in future runs during this time . The 6z GEFS in the 11-15 day have also went to this look, but by 16-30, slide the trough east. Could be a quick relaxation in the time period mentioned. Wouldn't say the Euro is exactly wrong in this scenario, especially if a strong canadian maritime low pulls the PV back north for a few days. The models are stil adamant about some higher heights building over Greenland in this time period, so maybe we'll see some signs of that happening as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Has been all over the place, but looks better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Has been all over the place, but looks better than yesterday Past around day 7-8 it usually has a spread representing all the different ensemble members. They should probably just add a line showing the mean down the middle of the spread. The Euro ensembles are showing an east based weak block developing toward the end of the 6-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ...i have a feeling that this upcoming cold period is going to UNDER perform.. no meteorological backing...just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I really think this is going to turn out to be a good pattern, nice -EPO reload after the New Year, PNA is generally positive, I think the AO will be at least somewhat negative, and the NAO will probably stay positive. So what does that mean? I don't think we'll have to worry about suppression as much as some think we do. Just look at the 29th-30th storm. The gfs had it well out to sea a couple of days ago and now shows a coastal hugger. I know it's a rainstorm but it shows that suppression will probably not be an issue heading forward. By January, we'll have much colder air in place and we'll likely have clippers and SW/S lows that could produce at least moderate events up here. This is not the year of the big coastal it seems because you do need a strong blocking pattern for that, but it's not a snow free pattern either like 2011-2012. I think we will all do well by the end of January so I'm not worried if a gfs run shows cold and dry because I know it'll keep changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ECMWF and GFS stratospheric forecasts show some splitting of the PV at 70hpa, late next week. Even with temps remain cold around the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Past around day 7-8 it usually has a spread representing all the different ensemble members. They should probably just add a line showing the mean down the middle of the spread. The Euro ensembles are showing an east based weak block developing toward the end of the 6-10 day. I'll throw this out there for some comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ...i have a feeling that this upcoming cold period is going to UNDER perform.. no meteorological backing...just a gut feeling. if you are talking snow, you have a good chance of being right. you can search high and wide in the Kocin books....you will find NOT ONE h5 depiction that has the dcm lines as compressed as they will be during the cold intervals....and then heights rise and we warm/rain....rinse/wash/repeat.....circa 1980-1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I'll throw this out there for some comparison Probably not a major KU snow signal for us, but a small to moderate event is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 if you are talking snow, you have a good chance of being right. you can search high and wide in the Kocin books....you will find NOT ONE h5 depiction that has the dcm lines as compressed as they will be during the cold intervals....and then heights rise and we warm/rain....rinse/wash/repeat.....circa 1980-1991 Right on, this year thus far showing no pattern that would yeild more than a moderate snow storm at best for the tri-state area. It is very possible the cold snap were headed for will be for nothing and rain will still find its way to our area. Not very promising at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Probably not a major KU snow signal for us, but a small to moderate event is possible. Agree. Hopefully the atlantic will offer some cooperation moving forward (beyond mid month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Agree. Hopefully the atlantic will offer some cooperation moving forward (beyond mid month) If that cold air retreats into siberia as bluewave said we may not have the strong cold air we need to work with some of the systems that may form along the east coast even if the blocking does show up. Catch 22 right there, as of right now the pattern is not ripe for big storms in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 if you are talking snow, you have a good chance of being right. you can search high and wide in the Kocin books....you will find NOT ONE h5 depiction that has the dcm lines as compressed as they will be during the cold intervals....and then heights rise and we warm/rain....rinse/wash/repeat.....circa 1980-1991 What's wrong with light to moderate events? Nothing wrong with them at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 What's wrong with light to moderate events? Nothing wrong with them at all. Some LI peeps haven't gotten in on too much of those either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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