PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The GFS has a tendency to go through stretches where it wants to break persistent patterns down beyond Day 10, remember last winter and in 11-12 it kept trying to go cold at times and it never happened...I do think we will eventually snap this long wave pattern in the next 8 weeks or so but just do not know when, it may not be til nearly the end of March, the -EPO pattern is extremely hard to bust as evidenced in the springs of 94 and 03...we stayed in them relatively long and by far this winter is probably the most persistent -EPO we've seen the last 20 years along with 93-94 and 02-03. Hey man good to see u checking in. Bluewave and I were thinking the JMA had a nice Feb gradient pattern look to it ala 94 It's a hard year to look too because it seemed the baroclinic zone set up at the Mason Dixon line and everything worked Not sure how it shakes our but having a neg EPO will allow low level cold air to push Next 10 days doesn't make or break winter but it would b nice for something to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 0 GFS through day 5 is dry and very chilly. terrible if you enjoy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Through 141 hours, no significant snow anywhere except the upper Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 0 GFS through day 5 is dry and very chilly. terrible if you enjoy snow. I suspect February will be a much snowier month. This month is all about the cold. February, on average, tends to be snowier, at least for my region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 We go from cold and dry to warm with rain late month....probably flipping back to cold by February, when we hopefully get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I suspect February will be a much snowier month. This month is all about the cold. February, on average, tends to be snowier, at least for my region. 0 GFS signals no snow though day 10+ No storms crashing into Cali. Looking at the pattern, we need hope and change. After day 10, we pop warm period(40 plus) I truly hope this is wrong, but the signal is the following Very cold through day 5 or 6. temps moderate with no cali storms day 6 to 10 Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah, it just simply looks bad. We need a big change to this to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah, it just simply looks bad. We need a big change to this to get snow Plenty of opportunity. The idea of a historic pattern are lost. Strange how I have to post about it, but I was never sold on it. What we have going imop. 5-7 days of cold If what the GFS shows at 8-10 days out a true is a warm up, Pattern can/will produce an over running event with snow imop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Plenty of opportunity. The idea of a historic pattern are lost. Strange how I have to post about it, but I was never sold on it. What we have going imop. 5-7 days of cold If what the GFS shows at 8-10 days out a true is a warm up, Pattern can/will produce an over running event with snow imop. The idea of a historic pattern is not lost and the weather over this period has not occurred yet, so anything can still happen. Also, we are going into an extremely cold period, I would for now, forget about the warm-up advertised by the GFS, as that may or may not ever happen. It's just that this pattern so far, show a minimal amount of moisture affiliated with it, little or no active STJ, the only way to get significant moisture here is off the Atlantic, and to do that, things have to slow down. In order for that to happen, we need either high latitude blocking or a rapidly intensifying storm to create its own environment. And in the fast progressive flow with the PNA ridge too far east, we are not seeing that. But there's still time for this to change. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The idea of a historic pattern is not lost and the weather over this period has not occurred yet, so anything can still happen. Also, we are going into an extremely cold period, I would for now, forget about the warm-up advertised by the GFS, as that may or may not ever happen. It's just that this pattern so far, show a minimal amount of moisture affiliated with it, little or no active STJ, the only way to get significant moisture here is off the Atlantic, and to do that, things have to slow down. In order for that to happen, we need either high latitude blocking or a rapidly intensifying storm to create its own environment. And in the fast progressive flow with the PNA ridge too far east, we are not seeing that. But there's still time for this to change. WX/PT Wxoutlooks, I respect you to the best. I don't have the years of experience as you regarding daily forecasting. My main issue is that I have the ability to view the following weather computer models. GFS, EURO etc. Sure call me a modelogist, but I can and do understand math and basic science. All computer models that forecasters use crapped the bed for the opportunity that it showed for so called good pattern. The word great was used in conversation in this portal over 2 to 4 days. Imop when we get good patterns, they just happen! You get in the moment and reflect a month or years later. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I have to agree with wintersGrasp It definitely looks like cold and dry followed by a warm up and rain.. I want snow just as bad as everyone else but imo it just doesn't look like that's going to happen. I also don't see this awesome pattern that everyone was talking about at least it doesn't look that that way when I look at my nws forecast for the next 7 days...... I hope I turn out to be wrong in everything I wrote but that's what I think right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Its tough being patient. Just because the long range operational runs look like crap it doesn't mean the pattern won't improve. GEFS does look a lot better than the OP. The first step in any winter scenario is getting the cold in place, established after a fairly long warmup. Give the operational guidance a few runs to catch on now that we have the cold in place. Even then, with so much energy, so many little vorts, guidance is going to be poor until 36 - 48h out. What looks like crap now could very well turn into something decent. Just now the Euro shows some light snows over the region for Tuesday, something it hasn't shown for days. Give this thing, this pattern some time before calling it a bust and be patient. I guarantee everyone on this board will have 30+" by Feb 20th. It will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro has light snow on Tuesday and then light snow again on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 IMHO that is a strong guarantee as right now their is no mechanism in place to slow down the flow and the position of the PV screams suppression. So you have these weak little moisture starved clippers move thru which redevelop to far off the coast to have any real effect on the sensible weather. For instance the 23rd-24th on the ECM is less then an inch of snow in most locales.... The example for tuesday is less then a 10 inch liquid equivalent... We absolutely need something to slow the flow down or we could go thru this period as most guidance suggests cold and dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 IMHO that is a strong guarantee as right now their is no mechanism in place to slow down the flow and the position of the PV screams suppression. So you have these weak little moisture starved clippers move thru which redevelop to far off the coast to have any real effect on the sensible weather. For instance the 23rd-24th on the ECM is less then an inch of snow in most locales.... The example for tuesday is less then a 10 inch liquid equivalent... We absolutely need something to slow the flow down or we could go thru this period as most guidance suggests cold and dry.. Don't worry about the snow totals at this moment. We will figure that out as we get closer. The euro still has a storm signal for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 IMHO that is a strong guarantee as right now their is no mechanism in place to slow down the flow and the position of the PV screams suppression. So you have these weak little moisture starved clippers move thru which redevelop to far off the coast to have any real effect on the sensible weather. For instance the 23rd-24th on the ECM is less then an inch of snow in most locales.... The example for tuesday is less then a 10 inch liquid equivalent... We absolutely need something to slow the flow down or we could go thru this period as most guidance suggests cold and dry.. I agree my man it's just not there. The GFS day 10 thru 15 20 member ensemble temp mean in the east is cold Not even close to the operational So we may get the 15 days of cold but there's some light snow tues and friday as per euro and the Canadian is a little Deeper for Friday . Just gona have to wait to see if a bigger system comes at the end of the period . Can't win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You see the same thing at 162 hrs... You have less then a tenth of an inch and once the system is past the heaviest moisture is over the ocean.. Blame this on the progressiveness of the pattern and the lack of blocking to slow down the flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You see the same thing at 162 hrs... You have less then a tenth of an inch and once the system is past the heaviest moisture is over the ocean.. Blame this on the progressiveness of the pattern and the lack of blocking to slow down the flow.. If the PV is causing suppression so would a neg NAO IMO in this pattern What I see is a trough axis thats too far East because the ridge axis in the west is too far east and the flow is under and out You may not need a neg NAO as much as u need a retrogression PV so u have room to amplify along the EC These spokes of energy rotate right through downslope and dry out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If the PV is causing suppression so would a neg NAO IMO in this pattern What I see is a trough axis thats too far East because the ridge axis in the west is too far east and the flow is under and out You may not need a neg NAO as much as u need a retrogression PV so u have room to amplify along the EC These spokes of energy rotate right through downslope and dry out . Probably correct on that.. I think we would have a much better chance with any systems with a - PNA with the EPO being negative because the - EPO would bring down the cold while the - PNA would place a SE ridge in place to bring some systems up the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I know this alone kinda bites it for people but day 10 on the euro is still cold Kinda like the bun without the meat. Happens I still think Tuesday has a shot for a couple of inches. Maybe even some mood flakes tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I know this alone kinda bites it for people but day 10 on the euro is still cold Kinda like the bun without the meat. Happens However...at day ten (yes i know its day 10) you can see the cold relaxing somewhat and the ridging knocked down somewhat and a system forming in the GOM region. A low pressure moves into the PNW which knocks the ridge down.. Is it correct is the thing since it is a day 10 prog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to this fill in with accumulating snow as we get closer. 4K NAM 60h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to this fill in with accumulating snow as we get closer. 4K NAM 60h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Mt Holly giving props to the snow Capitol of NJ. NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW TO PASS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND UKMET REMAIN MOST MUTED. WHILE THE CAN GGEM, NOGAPS AND JMA ARE MOST BULLISH. THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING MORE TOWARD TUE AND SLIGHTLY LESS TOWARD THU. IT WILL BE COLD ON THU SO WHATEVER SNOW FALLS WILL STICK EASILY. THERE IS A NORLUN CLUSTERING AROUND MONMOUTH COUNTY IN OUR CWA. LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS ONE CANT GO WRONG EXPECTING A SNOW MAX IN MONMOUTH COUNTY. OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE NORTH VS SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Mt Holly giving props to the snow Capitol of NJ. NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW TO PASS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND UKMET REMAIN MOST MUTED. WHILE THE CAN GGEM, NOGAPS AND JMA ARE MOST BULLISH. THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING MORE TOWARD TUE AND SLIGHTLY LESS TOWARD THU. IT WILL BE COLD ON THU SO WHATEVER SNOW FALLS WILL STICK EASILY. THERE IS A NORLUN CLUSTERING AROUND MONMOUTH COUNTY IN OUR CWA. LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS ONE CANT GO WRONG EXPECTING A SNOW MAX IN MONMOUTH COUNTY. OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE NORTH VS SOUTH. 6z GFS hr 66 850s minus 10 Light snow hr 72 850s minus 15. Light snow . Temps r in the teens and falling And the models now printing out .10 plus , looks sharper on the GFS Would love to see if we could drop .25 inch here with that look . The models are hopefully on there way to playing catch up the way they did with yesterday's system from westchester to New England from 3 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Here are 6z ens hr72, if H5 comes through a hair sharper than modeled this could be a nice little event. Not sure why its being dismissed, well not all are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 We are just going to have to be happy with nickel and dime smaller events as there are just too many kickers in this progressive flow for one big storm to occur here. The other main problem once we start February is we loose the +PNA and -AO pattern as the EPO ridge retrogrades and the PV exits Hudson Bay for Greenland. The JMA advertised gradient pattern will allow the SE ridge to flex its muscles without any Atlantic blocking to keep it in check. The -PNA/+AO pattern setting up around the beginning of February is not a snowlovers pattern. pna.sprd2.gif ao.sprd2.gif If that is true NYC south is in big trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If that is true NYC south is in big trouble!serious question. Why does every post you make have a sentence that says NYC south is in big trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If that is true NYC south is in big trouble! If we don't get any help for the Atlantic, we and up with a -EPO/-PNA/Neutral to positive AO which can yield below normal snowfall for February and above normal temps along the lines of February 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If we don't get any help for the Atlantic, we and up with a -EPO/-PNA/Neutral to positive AO which can yield below normal snowfall for February and above normal temps along the lines of February 1989. Looks like dec again to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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