Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Everyone disagreed with analogy. He nailed the period then blew it with that comment depends...if it truly warms up after the 28th-29th, I think he blew it--he went cold through the SB and was showing maps showing a foot of snow on the ground in the NYC around this date...if it's snowless and 45-50 going into Feb, I think he blew it. He would have had the cold too long and too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Why would you get worried about a SE ridge? You should be only be concerned if you are south of the maxon-dixon line, and in Dec it aided us in snowfall, As long as the cold air source in Canada is there assisted by warm SSTs in N Pac This is pertaining to the 12z GFS showing a SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I fully expect the winter cancel and weenie suicide posts to begin at 18z if not sooner. Come on now Ralph. We have plenty of opportunity for snow through the end of January into early April. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I honestly would be suprised if we didnt get one widespread SECS in this pattern, It is ripe once the PV reloads. We just have to get used to the cold/dry and yes the winter cancel posts as well before we start trackin legit threats in our region We will see. We are hoping for the same thing. Could doesn't always equal snow so u will knw soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I fully expect the winter cancel and weenie suicide posts to begin at 18z if not sooner. Come on now Ralph. We have plenty of opportunity for snow through the end of January into early April. Best. Oh I completely agree. I'm not jumping off a bridge. Just expect the posts tonight from some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I suggest not looking at the gfs past the 28th..forget easing of the cold..its downright balI It's not that reliable at that range...better to check the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To tone down weenie suicides the 12z NAVGEM has a very dynamic clipper moving from the GL (1/23/05 like) and moves east and redevelops off the NJ coast at 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Canadian sees the fri SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I think, as some are saying, that we generally always do have better chances at snow when a cold period relaxes anyway. It is common to get cold shots that push through, but very unusual to get a big snowstorm right in the middle of a prolonged cold outbreak. Usually these periods end up dry and cold. If I had to guess, I'd say February 2nd through the 15th is our best shot at a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To tone down weenie suicides the 12z NAVGEM has a very dynamic clipper moving from the GL (1/23/05 like) and moves east and redevelops off the NJ coast at 132 hrs I honestly think in my best opinion, this could put down a low warning end snowfall on Thursday w/ 4-7 inch entire NYC / LI and inland vicinity areawide. Like the dynamics of this system w/ 510-516 1000-500 thickness with near blizzard 4-6 hour event. An arctic wave/clipper that produces more than many think until Tuesday night models start showing it better. I bet the ECMWF sniffs it out on the upcoming run. Ear plugs, gas, stabilizer and snowblower on low end staandby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jeez. Page 1 of ths disco came up in my phone. So my bad fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To tone down weenie suicides the 12z NAVGEM has a very dynamic clipper moving from the GL (1/23/05 like) and moves east and redevelops off the NJ coast at 132 hrs http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 To tone down weenie suicides the 12z NAVGEM has a very dynamic clipper moving from the GL (1/23/05 like) and moves east and redevelops off the NJ coast at 132 hrsThe NAVGEM needs a compass to know north from south and a gyroscope to know up from down. It would have a hard time beating the future predictions of a bad economist even it was having a good day. I hope you are right but I never liked that model. GFS has the 50's by month's end now with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm still interested in this hr90 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I always laugh when people in the Coastal Plain (NJ, NYC, LI) worry about cold and dry suppression, blah, blah, blah. 8/10 times that doesn't happen. I actually love hearing it because it means it is going to snow. You get an occasional suppressed pattern (even then when it lifts we usually get some snow), but thus ain't VT, we need a significantly below normal patent to get snow chances. Embrace it, getting the cold is the hard part at 40N near the ocean. Once you get it you are in the ballgame. If we get a week or two of significantly below normal cold I think we'll lay down snow. I would bet on at least a moderate event with a better than normal chance of a significant event. Worry more about the cold pattern being a mirage and short-lived. If it comes to fruition I bet we get snow, keep talking cold and supressed, it's a Coastal Plain dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 12z Euro shows the redeveloping clipper at 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Let's think about building that potential powder snowman. That would be very hard to make. Too cold to build snowmen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Let's think about building that potential snowman. Way too cold for that next week. Snow will be too powdery. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Way too cold for that next week. Snow will be too powdery. Hahaha That is almost too good of a problem to have around here. The vortex talk will be back again. We all have a vortex in our homes --- > the toity one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 That is almost too good of a problem to have around here. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro is further north with clipper for Thursday which leads to a light event and is a brush for Tuesday event the gfs has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro would likely be a 2-4 event next week. Decent clipper with redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wxbell maps show less then an inch except southern eastern long island 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Looks like OP GFS is a warm outlier at day 10 as the ensembles and the Euro have a clipper followed by more cold a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I lov all the " it's dry" comments but totally ignore the day 10 coast to coast cold Pos Pna intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Looks like OP GFS is a warm outlier at day 10 as the ensembles and the Euro have a clipper followed by more cold a few days later. Not surprising...euro has been steady in the longer range with the cold while the gfs changes greatly from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not surprising...euro has been steady in the longer range with the cold while the gfs changes greatly from run to run. It would be nice if the SW vort on the Euro day 8-10 can kick out and come out more phased instead of suppressed of the Southeast Coast. But the strong PV and clipper may kick it a little too far east and we get two separate lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I lov all the " it's dry" comments but totally ignore the day 10 coast to coast cold Pos Pna intact Cold without snow is useless. I much rather have warmer weather then just cold temperatures and dry weather. IMHO ECM has not been stellar this year and is subject to its fallacies .. So at this point i would think the GFS has as much chance of verifying as the ECM does. GFS has the forecasted indices on its side for the end of the month... ECM not as much.... Battle of the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I lov all the " it's dry" comments but totally ignore the day 10 coast to coast cold Pos Pna intact Yeah alot of people seem to be interested in snow and not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Cold without snow is useless. I much rather have warmer weather then just cold temperatures and dry weather. IMHO ECM has not been stellar this year and is subject to its fallacies .. So at this point i would think the GFS has as much chance of verifying as the ECM does. GFS has the forecasted indices on its side for the end of the month... ECM not as much.... Battle of the models! The GFS ensembles 14 of its 20 members from day 10 thru 15 are below normal. Cold alone stinks. No argument here. Thinks the GFS OP too warm too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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