IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 MJO looks to be in Phase 7 That's an EB -NAO. Not what we want for a snowstorm. This pattern will favor New England more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Indicies forecast does not support a prolonged cold spell here AO forecasted to go positive - NAO remain positive and PNA forecasted to go negative again http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif If the pattern busts then it busts, there's nothing we could do about it. EPO will still be negative though so I expect it to overrule the negative indices like it did in December and it'll eventually lead to at least a couple of decent snow events. Wall to wall cold is becoming more unlikely but really how often do we get wall to wall cold anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the pattern busts then it busts, there's nothing we could do about it. EPO will still be negative though so I expect it to overrule the negative indices like it did in December and it'll eventually lead to at least a couple of decent snow events. Wall to wall cold is becoming more unlikely but really how often do we get wall to wall cold anyway. This. It's interesting how so many people I talk to are worn out by the cold and, yet, really, this month has been nowhere near as severe as the Januaries of 1977,1978,1979,1981,1982,1984 and 1994, at least here in Toronto. I think Canadians have lost their legendary resilience to the cold. In January 1977, for example, as well as February 1979, this city apparently experienced week after week of severe cold, not the two or three day shots of cold that this month has provided. One thing is for sure, I don't think the cost of this cold shot is going to equal that of a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS 12z trended slightly NW from 6z, a more NW shift could get a 1-3" type deal for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the pattern busts then it busts, there's nothing we could do about it. EPO will still be negative though so I expect it to overrule the negative indices like it did in December and it'll eventually lead to at least a couple of decent snow events. Wall to wall cold is becoming more unlikely but really how often do we get wall to wall cold anyway. we don't want extreme cold here - extreme cold limits the chances of significant snowstorms we want the PV to stay further north in a more favorable position for snow events around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS 12z trended slightly NW from 6z Was just about to post. Don't be surprised from the jersey coast onto Long Island if you snow Tues nite into Wednesday. Sometimes these arctic fronts like to snow right on the coast You can see at 84 hours slp is just east of hatteras. With minus 15 air just need a little jog NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS 12z trended slightly NW from 6z, a more NW shift could get a 1-3" type deal for coast Look at today... Models mishandling how strong this disturbance is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Look at today... Models mishandling how strong this disturbance is... The gfs had .1" qpf or so its past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I have liked the MLK threat for a while and there are no other shortwaves/disturbances screwing things up so things could still happen. Models are going to struggle immensely with this pattern without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS squashes the late week clipper. Nothing like the Euro/ Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The GFS look at 12 z for the day 6 system is not that bad. It's digs the SW and ejects east of the Delmarva The euro ensembles like this system so that's the one I would keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 You prob get more swfe Anything on the coast comes inside the BM But I'm talking about a system from Amarillo to AC. Stuff like that Saw that in 94 The weaker the better so it doesn't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS squashes the late week clipper. Nothing like the Euro/ Euro ensemble mean. Good spot for the GFS. The last 2 runs were off the CNJ coast , could miss , but when u see the GFS south and east 5 to 6 days out , you would think it could trend towards the euro ensembles. Nothing set in stone. Models see em and lose everyday. But keep an eye on that. The trough axis looks better at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The weaker the better so it doesn't cut. Agree. Just a nice moisture gulf laden long duration wave that rides the baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the pattern busts then it busts, there's nothing we could do about it. EPO will still be negative though so I expect it to overrule the negative indices like it did in December and it'll eventually lead to at least a couple of decent snow events. Wall to wall cold is becoming more unlikely but really how often do we get wall to wall cold anyway. Our pattern of cold here has been coming in relatively short bursts compared to the longer duration stuff of days old. Notice how the middle of the month warmed up so the early and late month Arctic shots were separated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The GFS look at 12 z for the day 6 system is not that bad. It's digs the SW and ejects east of the Delmarva The euro ensembles like this system so that's the one I would keep an eye on Weren't the euro ensembles just 1-3" anyway though with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Weren't the euro ensembles just 1-3" anyway though with this system? Weren't the euro ensembles just 1-3" anyway though with this system? The control was 3 to 6 and the ensemble mean was deeper and had a tighter track. Didn't see the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I suggest not looking at the gfs past the 28th..forget easing of the cold..its downright balmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 10 days of below then we go zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I suggest not looking at the gfs past the 28th..forget easing of the cold..its downright balmy gee that kind of matches the new indicies forecasts today - neg PNA positive AO and Positive NAO in this + TNH patttern when the PV heads back north the southeast ridge takes over and it gets balmy around here ..........we have experienced this twice this winter already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 At the very least, I would think this simply won't be an epic snowy period....probably not an epic cold period either. Hopefully something changes, but with no significant storm threats showing up, as well as frigid cold that doesn't seem to want to last too much longer than 1 week....it's safer to just not expect much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I fully expect the winter cancel and weenie suicide posts to begin at 18z if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Upon further review Canada stays cold. So ths looks like it wants to transitions into what the Jma sees a gradient look. It happened in Feb 94 and what happens is u open up the pac for systems to come east through the CONUs and they ride the baroclinic zone. If it sets up over the Mason Dixon line ur in biz if it's over the Merritt then it's not good. But non of ths happening before 10 days of cold. 5 days of transition and then may a gradient as per Jma. Winter Far from over. Careful with the indicies. As long as the waters are warmer south of Alaska u will continue to build pressure there and Canada doesn't torch. So the cold may never b far away in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 10 days of below then we go zonal. so much for JB's "damage equal to that of a hurricane hit on the US coast" What a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 so much for JB's "damage equal to that of a hurricane hit on the US coast" What a joke Everyone disagreed with analogy. He nailed the period then blew it with that comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 We are probably better off with a gradient type pattern anyway. I would rather that and take the chance that the storm may be rain then watching all the storms slide well off shore in a cold and dry pattern. The indicies are never perfect for us and we always have to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Upon further review Canada stays cold. So ths looks like it wants to transitions into what the Jma sees a gradient look. It happened in Feb 94 and what happens is u open up the pac for systems to come east through the CONUs and they ride the baroclinic zone. If it sets up over the Mason Dixon line ur in biz if it's over the Merritt then it's not good. But non of ths happening before 10 days of cold. 5 days of transition and then may a gradient as per Jma. Winter Far from over. Careful with the indicies. As long as the waters are warmer south of Alaska u will continue to build pressure there and Canada doesn't torch. So the cold may never b far away in Feb Example: by looking at this 500mb map you would think a SE ridge and 564dm and a low pressure vorticity SW of us, you would think rain, but the low level cold air is winning in this situation preventing torch in NYC, 2/11/94 was an underrated snowstorm. The point im trying to make is the GFS losing all the cold after 192 hrs, the GFS is notoriously volatile after this time period and either drops a PV full into the CONUS or has a raging SE ridge, my gut feeling in the beginning of Feb is a gradient pattern with low level cold air sticking around (verbatim the GFS has -20C at 850mb for 36 hours in NYC, that is very dense arctic air and will be very tough to get rid of) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 I fully expect the winter cancel and weenie suicide posts to begin at 18z if not sooner. Its like when the reputable members post " models are going to be flipping and not forecasting accurately because of the pattern change " it magically is forgotten and winter cancel posts start poppin up lol. Apparantely december 2010 pattern isnt ideal if it produces when the cold relaxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Example: by looking at this 500mb map you would think a SE ridge and a low pressure vorticity SW of us, you would think rain, but the low level air is winning in this situation preventing torch in NYC, 2/11/94 was an underrated snowstorm. The point im trying to make is the GFS losing all the cold after 192 hrs, the GFS is notoriously volatile after this time period and either drops a PV full into the CONUS or has a raging SE ridge, my gut feeling in the beginning of Feb is a gradient pattern with low level cold air sticking around (verbatim the GFS has -20C at 850mb for 36 hours in NYC, that is very dense arctic air and will be very tough to get rid of) As long as the EPO is neg u are going to feed low level cold air into the bottom of the trough. But u can see the ridge coming back. So there's Def resistance there to the cold press. It's 15 days out so will sort detes then. 10 days of cold and SW s. Let's see if 1 can stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 As long as the EPO is neg u are going to feed low level cold air into the bottom of the trough. But u can see the ridge coming back. So there's Def resistance there to the cold press. It's 15 days out so will sort detes then. 10 days of cold and SW s. Let's see if 1 can stick. I honestly would be suprised if we didnt get one widespread SECS in this pattern, It is ripe once the PV reloads. We just have to get used to the cold/dry and yes the winter cancel posts as well before we start trackin legit threats in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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