doncat Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Come on guys...one run of the gfs op post 240 hrs and you're freaking out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's evident it's another post 192 hour truncation disaster by the GFS it totally loses the western ridge out of the blue right after the truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I doubt JB will get much sleep tonight... I doubt he cares honestly. 1 run of a model 200+ hours out? C'mon now. That could completely change next run, as a matter or fact it will change. Also FWIW it's the only model that shows that. All out panic mode is setting in now as people are freaking out I over 1 op model run for 200+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 And at 18z it snowed for 7 days straight. Euro ensembles ,JMA ,Canadian ensembles, CFSV2 and its own 12z ensembles all Cold I wrote at 630 I didn't believe 7 days of snow and 6 hours later there's no reason to believe in 50 degrees for the Week I'm simply stating what it shows. 6Z could very well have three HEC's between 240 and 384 but what concerns me is the ridge begins to breakdown pre truncation. Now sure, post truncation could very well be over doing that and probably is. We'll find out what the good Dr has to say in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the ECM tonight has three chances at a light snowfall over the next 10 days , otherwise it is cold and dry...1st snowfall is overnight tonight the AM hrs.2nd chance is 23-24th of January 3rd chance is 25th -26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah GFS tonight looks terrible! No snow during the cold pattern, and then a warmup in the long range. Would be terrible if we get nothing from this pattern that so many people are optimistic about. I'd honestly rather have a warm pattern like this than a bone dry frigid pattern. Nothing's worse than bare ground and extreme cold. Some people might like that but I'm not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the ECM tonight has three chances at a light snowfall over the next 10 days , otherwise it is cold and dry... 1st snowfall is overnight tonight the AM hrs. 2nd chance is 23-24th of January 3rd chance is 25th -26th We need heights to increase over Greenland and Baffin Bay, or the best we can hope for will be clippers. What organized storms come our way will be crushed and suppressed, and when the pattern relaxes we go back to cutters. Progressive patterns like these need blocking especially. The best we can hope for is maybe a system like right around 12/20, with the minor clipper exiting and entraining Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Hrs 132-156 look interesting on the Euro. Verbatim it's an accumulating snow. I expect our threats or lack there of to change run to run for at least the next 5 daysm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Storm develops to late, eastern li get crushed if thats all snow, wb snow maps show 13" on the east end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The Euro is frigid at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 By day 11 the euro ensembles split the ridge in Alaska and we would lose the cross polar flow for a few days before it attempts to recconnect by day 15. Will see if future runs continue this look. If thats right it's 10 days of cold not 15 , but the LR always has variance in it . Hopefully we can pull something off by the middle of next week . The euro ensembles and its control are deeper than its operational with Our system at day 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Digging a little further into the day 6 system as per Euro. The operational precip is lighter for most of the area except onto Long Island as the SW exits the CNJ coast and heads east The ensembles have a much more classic look as it exits the SW off the Delmarva and sends it to the BM If that's right that's a more significant snow event area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 So the euro looked kinda like the 0z gfs in that it changes us to a warm pattern after day ten is this correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Anybody here of model inconsistency? It happens during pattern changes, as usual though par for the course they're is already people pretty much saying its not going to happen or not looking good LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 So the euro looked kinda like the 0z gfs in that it changes us to a warm pattern after day ten is this correct??? We break day from the real cold 11 thru 15 as per euro ensembles. The GFS ensembles are colder than its 0z operational But looks like we break for a bit. That gets you into Feb , by day 15 the ridge looks to rebuild to some degree But too far out to see if that's right. Hard to get weeks and weeks of continuous cold. We always break even in the best of winters So lets see if we can pull something off like the euro ensembles think we do . The 6z GFS keeps the trough in the east thru day 15. Just lessens the cold but is not warm and looks Like its 0z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 We break day from the real cold 11 thru 15 as per euro ensembles. The GFS ensembles are colder than its 0z operational But looks like we break for a bit. That gets you into Feb , by day 15 the ridge looks to rebuild to some degree But too far out to see if that's right. Hard to get weeks and weeks of continuous cold. We always break even in the best of winters So lets see if we can pull something off like the euro ensembles think we do . The 6z GFS keeps the trough in the east thru day 15. Just lessens the cold but is not warm and looks Like its 0z ensembles Yeah you can see the -EPO reloading. Hard for it not to, given the SST anomaly in the Northern Pacific. We are going to have snow potential right through the end of met winter IMO. No winter cancel posts this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Anybody here of model inconsistency? It happens during pattern changes, as usual though par for the course they're is already people pretty much saying its not going to happen or not looking good LOL Many of the same comments, almost word for word right before the snow earlier this very same month. Speaking of model inconsistency, a good example of this is in the new england thread on todays event which looked like nothing there, until last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 We break day from the real cold 11 thru 15 as per euro ensembles. The GFS ensembles are colder than its 0z operational But looks like we break for a bit. That gets you into Feb , by day 15 the ridge looks to rebuild to some degree But too far out to see if that's right. Hard to get weeks and weeks of continuous cold. We always break even in the best of winters So lets see if we can pull something off like the euro ensembles think we do . The 6z GFS keeps the trough in the east thru day 15. Just lessens the cold but is not warm and looks Like its 0z ensembles The JMA retrogrades the EPO ridge a little further west in February allowing more of a gradient pattern with the coldest anomalies over the Upper Midwest to Western Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 MJO looks to be in Phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Many of the same comments, almost word for word right before the snow earlier this very same month. Speaking of model inconsistency, a good example of this is in the new england thread on todays event which looked like nothing there, until last night Models are going to be struggling the next couple of weeks for sure -6Z GFS has only 0.25 total precip for 16 days through 2/2 with a few systems going south of us then developing too late offshore http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS still chasing its own tail when it comes to snow---always a week away---now it is bare ground here till 1/26, when there will be enough for a metro to leave his footprint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS still chasing its own tail when it comes to snow---always a week away---now it is bare ground here till 1/26, when there will be enough for a metro to leave his footprint. The Euro has been the same way with backing off from storms when we get under 96 hrs. The moral of this story is the the models can't handle individual storm details beyond 84 hrs when there are some many kickers in the flow. So the end result is that you get numerous smaller storms rather than one really amped up one. So we'll have to wait until the models have a decent hit within 72hrs to get really excited about our prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Storm develops to late, eastern li get crushed if thats all snow, wb snow maps show 13" on the east end.. Didn't I say this was a likelihood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The Euro has been the same way with backing off from storms when we get under 96 hrs. The moral of this story is the the models can't handle individual storm details beyond 84 hrs when there are some many kickers in the flow. So the end result is that you get numerous smaller storms rather than one really amped up one. So we'll have to wait until the models have a decent hit within 72hrs to get really excited about our prospects. The euro control and its ensembles hav a snowstorm thrs into Friday. I will not look at the op outside day 4 It's been horrible ths year . Pretty good agreement on the ensembles. So lets see how that looks by Monday. If the piece comes off the Delmarva it's ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The JMA retrogrades the EPO ridge a little further west in February allowing more of a gradient pattern with the coldest anomalies over the Upper Midwest to Western Lakes. Y201401.D1100_gl0.png Y201401.D1100_gl2.png Bring me a gradient pattern in feb anytime. Let's say feb is 1 below like dec was until we had that 70 degree day 1 below in early to mid feb is colder than 1 below in early to mid dec Just has to be cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Indicies forecast does not support a prolonged cold spell here AO forecasted to go positive - NAO remain positive and PNA forecasted to go negative again http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Indicies forecast does not support a prolonged cold spell here AO forecasted to go positive - NAO remain positive and PNA forecasted to go negative again http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Can you explain why the models show cold then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The JMA retrogrades the EPO ridge a little further west in February allowing more of a gradient pattern with the coldest anomalies over the Upper Midwest to Western Lakes. Y201401.D1100_gl0.png Y201401.D1100_gl2.png I like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Bring me a gradient pattern in feb anytime. Let's say feb is 1 below like dec was until we had that 70 degree day 1 below in early to mid feb is colder than 1 below in early to mid dec Just has to be cold enough to snow. The pattern just has to be timed perfectly so the shortwave kicking out has some high pressure to the north over the Lakes for a least a front end thump. But enough of a southeast ridge at times can allow a more amplified system to hug or even cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The pattern just has to be timed perfectly so the shortwave kicking out has some high pressure to the north over the Lakes for a least a front end thump. But enough of a southeast ridge at times can allow a more amplified system to hug or even cut. You prob get more swfe Anything on the coast comes inside the BM But I'm talking about a system from Amarillo to AC. Stuff like that Saw that in 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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