IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hour 156 is a nice little snowstorm for New England as the low passes near the benchmark. 850mb temps are around -18C for our region at that hour. Could be some good ratios depending on snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hour 156 is a nice little snowstorm for New England as the low passes near the benchmark. 850mb temps are around -18C for our region at that hour. Could be some good ratios depending on snow growth. This one has legs because of the ridge out west. I'd expect this could be a classic Miller B snowstorm for Philly to NE if it comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The thursday event has good ensemble support from the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Some of the GFS ensembles show an absolute epic storm Day 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 By Friday morning the intensifying low pressure system is now up into the Canadian Maritimes close to the 50/50 position. The western atlantic ridge is amplified and blocking is now in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 the split of the pv really helps here for the first storm and the threat for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Meanwhile back at the ranch, low pressure is organizing in the western gulf region by next weekend. The western ridge is amplified and stretches up to near Alaska. Another piece of the PV is dropping south through central Canada and energy is diving down the back side of the ridge. Low pressure is near Denver which is a pretty classic spot for miller A initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 At last at hour 198 low pressure is coming together over northern GA. The southern stream seemed to sit around forever waiting for the energy to drop in from the north. Things might come together just a bit too late this run, we'll see. Normally I would say this has a risk of slipping OTS but that Atlantic ridge looks locked in thanks to some blocking. The PV ends up winning out this run and keeps it weak. Give me this setup 100 times and it's going to produce 80 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We get an arctic front passage as the southern stream low passes well offshore. The clipper redevelops bringing yet another shot at light snow and something more significant for northern New England. -30C temps into the northern plains by Sunday night. This steady stream of clippers is going to help reinforce the blocking over Greenland. If you build it, they will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hopefully we can squueze out a 1-3, 3-5 event during the Polar Vortex 2. The cold looks to be the main story over the next 10 days. Any snow will be benefical to aid the possible historic cold period with record low temps. Interesting times if you enjoy cold weather. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Cautiously optimistic that in about a week we may start to drum up some real events. However as we've seen this year when we get into middle range, guidance can completely lose a system, so well see. Pond skating for all regardless though, that's a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This weekend is the start of a Wintry pattern as we have transition away from the milder weather. Ths looks to b a 2 to 3 week period of below normal temps throughout the area with a few chances at snow. As the trough axis is pulled back and the blocking Starts to take effect by week 2 there will b plenty of chances for snow. Next Friday mayb the first chance but the models hint that we go Into superbowl week should See this pay off. Snow is never a guarantee and it's never Gona show up wire to wire on the models. So patience us required and by the time the pattern breaks I think u all get ur snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Might be a dumb question but with these possible storms does the coast have to worry about changing to rain like we did with every storm in December??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Might be a dumb question but with these possible storms does the coast have to worry about changing to rain like we did with every storm in December??? Think that's always an option on the coastal plain No matter good the pattern looks from a distance just cross that bridge if ur lucky to come to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful looks cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful Cross polar flow, true this does look cold and dry but we will have to watch for redeveloping cliippers, Miller B's (the GFS ensembles have a good signal for a storm next weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks PB was afraid the answer was Yes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Day 10 OP . Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks PB was afraid the answer was Yes. . Dude don't worry . We get home , Patience . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful Potentially beautiful looks cold and dry That snapshot does, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dry all of next week http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yes, the pattern over the next 7-10 days is going to be cold and dry, but with multiple chances at cashing in on redeveloping clippers. The 12z GGEM ensemble mean has a low south of Long Island Thursday night. Looks juiced too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful Still appears to be a strong +NAO here-notice the ridging near the Azores and trough near Iceland, with a very fast Atlantic jet. We need more blocking and buckling of the flow over NE Canada. That would be good for maybe a 1-3" clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just beautiful Yes, the pattern over the next 7-10 days is going to be cold and dry, but with multiple chances at cashing in on redeveloping clippers. The 12z GGEM ensemble mean has a low south of Long Island Thursday night. Looks juiced too. can't rely on just one model by itself - especially the Canadian - that model always likes to spit out solutions no other model agrees with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 can't rely on just one model by itself - especially the Canadian - that model always likes to spit out solutions no other model agrees with I thought it was already understood that the GFS and Euro ops both had it. Especially the Euro. The 12z Euro verbatim is a SECS. A few of the 12z GEFS individual members were major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That bit of energy off the S CA coast is what we need to start juicing up. We need the southern stream to beef up a bit to save the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That bit of energy off the S CA coast is what we need to start juicing up. We need the southern stream to beef up a bit to save the pattern. MJO is forecasted to be in Phase 7 for an active STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's obviously going to take time and patience is already running thin, but I'll be shocked if we don't get at least one significant snow event by the time the pattern breaks. January 25th-February 15th is the period to watch as some mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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