January Forecast Discussion

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Today's euro shows two snow threats with another building at the end of the run. Last nights gfs should two snow threats. Today another. The CMC has a snow bomb on a run last night. We have a raging -EPO returning, the arctic flood gates reopening, the AO going negative, an active northern stream, the MJO moving into a more favorable phase for cyclogenesis, AND an active STJ showing on LR guidance. The pattern coming up looks undeniably cold and active. If you disagree you're not reading the indices correctly.

18z GFS continues to show the threat of at least a SECS in the 1/3-1/4 timeframe. The Euro Ens and LR GFS backed off a bit on the extreme cold today. Let's hope this is just a blip.

[Hailstorm]

18z GFS continues to show the threat of at least a SECS in the 1/3-1/4 timeframe. The Euro Ens and LR GFS backed off a bit on the extreme cold today. Let's hope this is just a blip.

I may have the reason for this latest development:

 

 

The Control run has it as well  , but its a clipper that deepens near AC then takes it to the BM . LR always just a dice roll .

 

 

Look at that unmitigated epic torch spreading eastward on westerly winds after 1/4. Massive +NAO rebuilding and the Alaskan vortex of death returns.

[NaoPos]

I may have the reason for this latest development:

Look at that unmitigated epic torch spreading eastward on westerly winds after 1/4. Massive +NAO rebuilding and the Alaskan vortex of death returns.

It's the euro control run. Wouldn't put too much stock into it.

[PB GFI]

I may have the reason for this latest development:

 

 

Look at that unmitigated epic torch spreading eastward on westerly winds after 1/4. Massive +NAO rebuilding and the Alaskan vortex of death returns.

LOL. That's a high pressure area that just dropped out of Canada and heads east.

[PB GFI]

I may have the reason for this latest development:

 

 9

Look at that unmitigated epic torch spreading eastward on westerly winds after 1/4. Massive +NAO rebuilding and the Alaskan vortex of death returns.

The whole vortex collapses back in the red u see off the east coast locks the trough in. There is zero torch. mean zero coming in the upcoming 2 weeks

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Here is the dry look of the 18z GFS:

 

 

 

 

With dynamics at play, this is a snow to wet snow/sleet to high ratio snow bomb.

[SnoSki14]

Dryness isn't the problem, an inland cutter is still a problem as the 18z gfs shows with the highs slipping east. Of course I'm not going to speculate on a gfs run beyond 200+ hrs. The 18z gfs looks a little better with that Day 5 scenario. It's worth monitoring as the NAO starts heading downward and I anticipate SE ridge resistance, which could force the low closer to the coast than currently depicted. 

[atownwxwatcher]

Here is the dry look of the 18z GFS:

 

 

 

 

With dynamics at play, this is a snow to wet snow/sleet to high ratio snow bomb.

And here is your ensembles for 240 hours... from 18 Z GFS 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs now much colder with 2 smaller snow events between the 3rd and 6th

[Storm At Sea]

I think most nwp will play catch up the next few days with a possible n/s stream phase as opposed to the secs n stream event on tonight's gfs

Gfs now much colder with 2 smaller snow events between the 3rd and 6th

[PB GFI]

GFS advertising snow through minus 20 air at day 9 for system 1 . They are northern stream systems and they are either snow or no.

No precip type issues on that run. That's a cold NON DRY run.

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS the last few runs looks very 03-04/04-05ish to me, great pattern for the immediate NE and MA and possibly even SE but not so great once past Day 8-10 or so for the Midwest/Plains as it looks as if it may want to put the ridge axis more towards the Rockies and hence only the far East Coast really gets in on the cold...if the GFS is onto that being an eventual shift most of the nation would actually average above normal.

[MJO812]

GFS has a clipper exploding off the coast on January 3rd. This would feature high ratio snows if this came true.

 

[EasternLI]

Here's what the euro wants to do

[REDMK6GLI]

The Euro shoukd come east with its d9 system

Its known bias for being TOO over amped maybe?

[PB GFI]

The euro should come east with its day 9 system . The Euro is dumping too much trough in the west day 7 and it's kicking the ridge up ahead of it so it deepens the system inland. I can't say it's snow for sure but a slp should be off Hatteras

[Allsnow]

the cold at the end of the 00z euro op is just insane lol drops the pv over the lakes 

[green tube]

the cold at the end of the 00z euro op is just insane lol drops the pv over the lakes 

 

we are so overdue to get our butts kicked.  it's my impression much of the northern hemisphere of the planet has experienced extreme cold in recent years, but it has always managed to avoid us.  i remember some time in the 80s... standing outside one morning and it was 13 below zero here in east brunswick..

 

update: i found the date... january 23, 1984

 

new jersey lows:

newton 24 below.

charlottsburg 24 below

east millstone 19 below

salem 14 below

new brunswick 13 below

[PB GFI]

Congrads on your engagement .

[jm1220]

we are so overdue to get our butts kicked.  it's my impression much of the northern hemisphere of the planet has experienced extreme cold in recent years, but it has always managed to avoid us.  i remember some time in the 80s... standing outside one morning and it was 13 below zero here in east brunswick... and that morning it was 24 below zero in morristown.

It's exceptionally rare to have the PV so close to us. It could happen but I'd wager it's further north near Hudson Bay as the ensembles show. And that would mean a cold but probably dry pattern. So at this point that's what I would expect, but we could luck out with a redeveloping clipper or maybe a quick hitting miller B. I'd say 2-4" or 3-5" is what we can max out with near the coast in this type of pattern which is still nice, but this isn't a pattern for major threats yet.

[REDMK6GLI]

Congrads on your engagement .

FRIGID AIR! im just hoping that we can get the cold to line up with some nice snowstorms as well, not KU material everytime but a nice blanket of snow kind of storm

[uncle W]

we are so overdue to get our butts kicked.  it's my impression much of the northern hemisphere of the planet has experienced extreme cold in recent years, but it has always managed to avoid us.  i remember some time in the 80s... standing outside one morning and it was 13 below zero here in east brunswick..

 

update: i found the date... january 23, 1984

 

new jersey lows:

newton 24 below.

charlottsburg 24 below

east millstone 19 below

salem 14 below

new brunswick 13 below

 

we are so overdue to get our butts kicked.  it's my impression much of the northern hemisphere of the planet has experienced extreme cold in recent years, but it has always managed to avoid us.  i remember some time in the 80s... standing outside one morning and it was 13 below zero here in east brunswick..

 

update: i found the date... january 23, 1984

 

new jersey lows:

newton 24 below.

charlottsburg 24 below

east millstone 19 below

salem 14 below

new brunswick 13 below

the 1980's had more cold waves than snowstorms...since 1960 Newark got down to below zero...

-2...2/2/1961

-2...2/8/1963

-1...1/23/1976

-2...1/17/1977

-1...1/18/1977

-1...2/11/1979

-1...2/12/1979

-1...2/18/1979

-1...12/26/1980

-1...1/12/1981

-2...1/11/1982

-7...1/17/1982

-7...1/18/1982

-1...1/22/1984

-3...1/20/1985

-8...1/21/1985

-2...1/19/1994

-2...1/27/1994

[PB GFI]

FRIGID AIR! im just hoping that we can get the cold to line up with some nice snowstorms as well, not KU material everytime but a nice blanket of snow kind of storm

Probably somewhat  overdone . Its the 2nd run that  the Euro has shown this , But even though we ended up in the teens this AM  it backed off the Xmas AM  0 it has from 10 days ago , So this extreme  makes me cautious .

The Ensembles keep the PV just N enough not to do this , but im happy if this doesn't happen , chances are better

for some snow , this would shunt everything .

[PB GFI]

The GFS and Canadian , still like deepening Clipper idea for the 4th  .

[PB GFI]

Lows that close off in TX love to go up west of the MTNS  lucky its  D10 gives us plenty of wiggle room  .

So much cold air in front of this,  lets hope its just deepening the system too far west like it sometimes does .

[NEG NAO]

the AO index forecast doesn't look as negative at the end of the month into January - NAO looks to be close to neutral with a slightly positive PNA and neg EPO

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[REDMK6GLI]

Lows that close off in TX love to go up west of the MTNS lucky its D10 gives us plenty of wiggle room .

So much cold air in front of this, lets hope its just deepening the system too far west like it sometimes does .

All that cold air would go to waste and we would flood with warm air in the NE, a grinch storm redux. Being 10 days away gives me "some" hope

[Storm At Sea]

Forecasts for the various indices have been all over the place.

the AO index forecast doesn't look as negative at the end of the month into January - NAO looks to be close to neutral with a slightly positive PNA and neg EPO

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[PB GFI]

Highs are in the Teens on  Fri Jan 3 and Sat  Jan  4 around here , Cold enough if that verifies

[uncle W]

the ao forecasts are backing off going negative and look neutral at best...I'd look for more of what we got in the first part of December with colder temperatures and Atlantic...we could see a storm with an inch and a half of precipitation with 8-10" of snow with ice on top...that would be the tops for NYC in a plus ao scenario...