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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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i dont need you to spend $500....plus Feb 10 is basically 4 weeks. Do the odds favor you even in a bad pattern? I am referring to the ogling of the euro and gfs ensembles through month end

Was all in good fun. The ogling is always present and will continue to be until one hits

Just think it will

Dont confuse the upcoming pattern with the last 7 days The pattern through month end is cold

Theres nothing that doesnt support that As far as snow , well its just a guess at best

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Was all in good fun. The ogling is always present and will continue to be until one hits

Just think it will

Dont confuse the upcoming pattern with the last 7 days The pattern through month end is cold

Theres nothing that doesnt support that As far as snow , well its just a guess at best

that cold word is what scares me....

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Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big

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Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big

 

I'm not doubting that one bit. I have noticed a trend in the two KU events. If you look at the thread posted about the two KU events, you'll notice that the Heaviest Snowfall Axis has dropped about at least 100 miles south on January's KU event Vs. December's KU event. 

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Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big

The problem is that even though the cold is a LOCK  you`re best chance of snow will be in week 2 . So this week prob turns out DRY.

I know no one likes to hear that , but snow is never a LOCK . So we  may all need patience and in the end there are  still no guarantees .

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Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big

December 2010 not exactly same set up, but from the start of the month it was evident the pattern was in place. Had to wait , but it happened.

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December 2010 not exactly same set up, but from the start of the month it was evident the pattern was in place. Had to wait , but it happened.

To a point however as that month featured a pretty anamolous west based -NAO, something that is not guaranteed currently as we head closer and into february

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The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was fairly optimistic about light snow chances for early Saturday morning.

 

The 00z ECMWF op run lost the late period storm. That energy coming into the Pacific northwest is going to play a key roll over the next few days.

 

Earthlight please check your PM's. Thanks.

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The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was fairly optimistic about light snow chances for early Saturday morning.

The 00z ECMWF op run lost the late period storm. That energy coming into the Pacific northwest is going to play a key roll over the next few days.

Earthlight please check your PM's. Thanks.

Guessing that energy coming into the pacific NW has ramifications for the storm next weekend that some of the models were hinting at?

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12z GFS

 

The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate.

 

Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run.

 

The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change.

 

Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game.

 

The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation.

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12z GFS

 

The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate.

 

Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run.

 

The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change.

 

Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game.

 

The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation.

Went back to its 0z Coast to Coast  COLD f384.gif

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12z GFS

 

The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate.

 

Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run.

 

The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change.

 

Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game.

 

The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation.

The first window of opportunity for another snow event in the metro is Jan 24th - 28th - when the pattern starts to relax or begins to reload is the best opportunity as opposed to when the PV is blasting us with extreme low temps - Jan 22nd is still on the table also

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12z GFS

The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate.

Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run.

The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change.

Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game.

The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation.

Great analysis and once again reinforces the theme that once the PV retreats/ reloads that Miller A may come to fruition and deliver the goods. Patience is key right now

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That is the system that currently has my full attention! Plenty of energy pouring south and reloading of the PV will spell a secs or perhaps mecs between the 26th and 28th.

Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again?

 

The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours.

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That is the system that currently has my full attention! Plenty of energy pouring south and reloading of the PV will spell a secs or perhaps mecs between the 26th and 28th.

Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again?

 

The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours.

Thanks for the pbp please keep us posted on the gfs ens.

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12z GFS

 

The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate.

 

Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run.

 

The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change.

 

Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game.

 

The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation.

 

Not trying to crush snow dreams, but a reality check is needed.

With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern.

When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm.

The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently.

 

 

Best.

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Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again?

 

The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours.

The tracking IS the fun man. The actual event is sweet, but it's the journey that makes the experience. And not just with snow. The pursuing of dreams.

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Not trying to crush snow dreams, but a reality check is needed.

With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern.

When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm.

The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently.

 

 

Best.

With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern.

  - Of course. No one is saying otherwise. The stormy pattern comes after the PV split/relaxes, which is around the 1/25 as per the models

When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm.

  - That's all anyone is saying.

The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently.

  - That's because sometimes, and usually, it takes 2-3 weeks for a pattern to fully settle in. See December 2010 as an example. 

 

All, just read Earthlights posts, sit back and enjoy the ride. We went through a very similar progression in December 2010. Models kept showing big storms, only to take them away, including immediately before Boxing Day . This was all happening as the pattern was setting up. It took a week or two longer than expected, but eventually it produced. Frankly, the longer it takes the better, for KU chances. Models have been hinting at a -NAO, perhaps sustained even, setting up by the end of the month. If the progged pattern comes to fruition, it will snow.  

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12z ECMWF op run

 

Through hour 120, the cold is delayed but not denied, although nowhere near the extreme of what the 12z run had yesterday. The PV is further east and it's putting a negative tilt on the western ridge. Still, energy is diving down the back side of the PV and a weak low is over the deep south.

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The PV is in a less favorable position through the mid-period for amplification. The ridge out west still looks nice but the PV is completely shearing out all the southern stream energy. Yet another strong clipper is swinging through the mid-west and this one might have implications on our area. The 12z GGEM has this feature bringing the area some snow and some of the 12z GEFS members had it as well.

 

At hour 144 the clipper is transferring and redeveloping over the mid-atlantic. Light snow beginning to break out. Hour 150 light snow over the region as the redeveloping low passes off the NJ coast. Would be a nice 1-3 or 2-4 type deal. More east. Meanwhile a 1040mb high is located over the northern plains.

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