bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z operational GFS is in line with the earlier run of the ensembles (12z isn't finished yet), showing 1-2 standard deviation cold on January 22. That implies the possibility of a high temperature below 20° (approximately 1.7σ below the average 1/21-23 high) and another low temperature in the single digits (approximately 1.5σ below the average 1/21-23 low). To date, NYC has had 4 single-digit lows (most since 2004-05 when there were 8) and 2 high temperatures below 20° (most since 2003-04 when there were 4). Don, the interesting thing about this January is how the first Arctic outbreak was within the first ten days of the month...middle ten days mild thaw...followed by return to Arctic cold last ten. I don't think there have been many Januarys with such a sharply defined cold- warm -cold patten. It seems like there have been plenty of cold all month long Januarys and warm to cold and cold to warm with the traditional thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 WOOF! The system between the 26 th and 28th really has my full attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Apparently the Canadian went bonkers for next week's storm. Has anyone seen it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 and don't forget the Rangers are playing at Yankee stadium on both 1/26 and 1/29!!! ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Don, the interesting thing about this January is how the first Arctic outbreak was within the first ten days of the month...middle ten days mild thaw...followed by return to Arctic cold last ten. I don't think there have been many Januarys with such a sharply defined cold- warm -cold patten. It seems like there have been plenty of cold all month long Januarys and warm to cold and cold to warm with the traditional thaw. I agree. It will be fun to see how all this plays out, both in terms of cold and also potential snowfall, especially if some blocking can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree. It will be fun to see how all this plays out, both in terms of cold and also potential snowfall, especially if some blocking can develop. Don , the CFS V2 and the Euro Ensembles day 15 looks blocky over the top look to get you to feb 10 ish , can you see it longer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Here is the ggem for mid week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Here is the ggem for mid week.. Mmm that is a tasty SECS Though i dont think that is our storm. However once past next week our chances really ramp up for something bigger/widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Mmm that is a tasty SECS Though i dont think that is our storm. However once past next week our chances really ramp up for something bigger/widespread I wouldn't dismiss this threat as the Euro still had it as of last night (we'll find out soon if it still does). We might not see a foot from it but could still be a decent accumulating event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 17 MB drop in 6 hours would feature a blizzard from Philly to Boston and prob thunder snow in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 WOOF! The system between the 26 th and 28th really has my full attention! as I have mentioned a few times in the last 2 days that is the one that keeps appearing on the GFS - its time to get down to business here and concentrate on legit threats and dates - January 26 -28th is the most legit threat right now that has potential to be significant. Jan 21st - 22nd has possibilities also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jesus what a turnaround of events as far as legit threats compared to the last two weeks. Buckle up going to be a big time emotional roller coaster to close out winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 17 MB drop in 6 hours would feature a blizzard from Philly to Boston and prob thunder snow in NE That is one POTENT storm but im not sold on it being anything more than an accumulating snowfall due to the pattern not yet being condusive enough to allow for that much digging in a still progressive pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jesus what a turnaround of events as far as legit threats compared to the last two weeks. Buckle up going to be a big time emotional roller coaster to close out winter Close out winter? We have 2 months to go at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 There`s a 12z GFS CONUS snow cover map up in the NEW ENGLAND thread . Worth taking a peek for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Close out winter? We have 2 months to go at least It was a joking statement that really wasnt suppose to be taken literally we are half way to febraury as well and when march gets here i dont want to hear about any snow just warm weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro continues pattern of having too much eye candy past 72 hrs like yesterdays run. Kickerfest 2014 is kicking around the Euro pretty good lately. I can't remember the last time the Euro had so many wiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z Euro has the inverted trough signal for Saturday morning. Then it looks nothing like the GGEM for next week. The Euro looks more like the GFS for that time period with development much further offshore. The Euro then has the energy diving down the east side of the ridge the middle of next week in nearly the same spot as the 12z GFS. The end of next week looks to have a few days with highs in the teens at the coast and single digits inland. A reinforcing shot of arctic air comes into International Falls next Thursday with -20 F surface temps up that way, and -30 F not far away into Canada. Meanwhile our storm system in the long range is dropping down through the Rockies and it's over the TX Panhandle by hour 168. About the same so far as the 00z run. A huge PNA ridge extends a long the west coast all the way up into Alaska and the amplification of this ridge resembles a bullet about to fired out of a gun. At hour 192 a surface reflection now exists over the deep south with precip breaking out over Arkansas and northern Louisiana. At hour 198 high pressure is centered over this area, temperatures have begun to moderate but we're still seeing highs below freezing. Meanwhile precip is now breaking out in earnest over the deep south. By hour 204 snow is knocking on our doorstep. 850mb temps are in the -10 C range. The 850mb freezing line is south of Atlanta. Hour 210 light snow is overspreading the region from west to east. One low pressure system is over the Ohio Valley and a second low is over the Carolinas. Apps getting hammered. Hour 216 the area is getting crushed by a developing CCB. The surface low passes tucked in right off the NJ coast, but the 850mb freezing line is over 100 miles offshore. This is an epic snow bomb for the whole northeast. Hour 222 the surface low is over Cape Cod sub 992mb. Some wrap around moisture for us. QPF totals are 0.50-0.75", all snow. Snow maps show 6-8"+ areawide. The cold into the mid-west at day ten is epic on the Euro, huge area of -40C 850mb temps or colder. It's off the charts which only go down to -40C on my maps. Surface temps of -35 to -40F in northern Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z Euro has the inverted trough signal for Saturday morning. Then it looks nothing like the GGEM for next week. The Euro looks more like the GFS for that time period with development much further offshore. The Euro then has the energy diving down the east side of the ridge the middle of next week in nearly the same spot as the 12z GFS. The end of next week looks to have a few days with highs in the teens at the coast and single digits inland. A reinforcing shot of arctic air comes into International Falls next Thursday with -20 F surface temps up that way, and -30 F not far away into Canada. Meanwhile our storm system in the long range is dropping down through the Rockies and it's over the TX Panhandle by hour 168. About the same so far as the 00z run. A huge PNA ridge extends a long the west coast all the way up into Alaska and the amplification of this ridge resembles a bullet about to fired out of a gun. At hour 192 a surface reflection now exists over the deep south with precip breaking out over Arkansas and northern Louisiana. At hour 198 high pressure is centered over this area, temperatures have begun to moderate but we're still seeing highs below freezing. Meanwhile precip is now breaking out in earnest over the deep south. By hour 204 snow is knocking on our doorstep. 850mb temps are in the -10 C range. The 850mb freezing line is south of Atlanta. Hour 210 light snow is overspreading the region from west to east. One low pressure system is over the Ohio Valley and a second low is over the Carolinas. Apps getting hammered. Hour 216 the area is getting crushed by a developing CCB. The surface low passes tucked in right off the NJ coast, but the 850mb freezing line is over 100 miles offshore. This is an epic snow bomb for the whole northeast. Amazing Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z Euro has the inverted trough signal for Saturday morning. Then it looks nothing like the GGEM for next week. The Euro looks more like the GFS for that time period with development much further offshore. The Euro then has the energy diving down the east side of the ridge the middle of next week in nearly the same spot as the 12z GFS. The end of next week looks to have a few days with highs in the teens at the coast and single digits inland. A reinforcing shot of arctic air comes into International Falls next Thursday with -20 F surface temps up that way, and -30 F not far away into Canada. Meanwhile our storm system in the long range is dropping down through the Rockies and it's over the TX Panhandle by hour 168. About the same so far as the 00z run. A huge PNA ridge extends a long the west coast all the way up into Alaska and the amplification of this ridge resembles a bullet about to fired out of a gun. At hour 192 a surface reflection now exists over the deep south with precip breaking out over Arkansas and northern Louisiana. At hour 198 high pressure is centered over this area, temperatures have begun to moderate but we're still seeing highs below freezing. Meanwhile precip is now breaking out in earnest over the deep south. By hour 204 snow is knocking on our doorstep. 850mb temps are in the -10 C range. The 850mb freezing line is south of Atlanta. Hour 210 light snow is overspreading the region from west to east. One low pressure system is over the Ohio Valley and a second low is over the Carolinas. Apps getting hammered. Hour 216 the area is getting crushed by a developing CCB. The surface low passes tucked in right off the NJ coast, but the 850mb freezing line is over 100 miles offshore. This is an epic snow bomb for the whole northeast. MECS possibility at about D9 range, nice. If it shows this solution by monday ill start getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Too bad the euro hasn't been that good lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro continues pattern of having too much eye candy past 72 hrs like yesterdays run. Kickerfest 2014 is kicking around the Euro pretty good lately. I can't remember the last time the Euro had so many wiffs. Might be a case where the Euro is slowing down the pattern too much. Until I see signs of a developing favorable NAO, I woulsn't be that excited about significant or major events (significant is over 6"). Clippers however are another story-I could see us getting lucky with a redeveloper or quick shot of snow through the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Too bad the euro hasn't been that good lately. The longer range model runs past day 5 just shows the pattern is going to be active - does not mean we are going to see any significant storms - in fact without a negative NAO to slow this pattern down and the polar vortex coming too far south southern stream storms are more favored to miss us south and east ......think this will be a good pattern for storms for the southern mid atlantic especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Winter part 2 starts this weekend , 2 small shots of snow as it turns colder and all eyes turns to midweek . Relax , Breathe ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Winter part 2 starts this weekend , 2 small shots of snow as it turns colder and all eyes turns to midweek . Relax , Breath ........... Yep. Can't believe more people aren't posting just to discuss the upcoming pattern. Both the GFS and Euro look fantastic in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yep. Can't believe more people aren't posting just to discuss the upcoming pattern. Both the GFS and Euro look fantastic in the LR. I think people are being cautious. They look great now but things can change. Its hard to be positive sometimes with regards to long range outlooks and snow chances. I've learned to try not too look beyond 7 days. That goes for when people are touting a major thaw or torch too. Often times the closer we get the more muted they become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think people are being cautious. They look great now but things can change. Its hard to be positive sometimes with regards to long range outlooks and snow chances. I've learned to try not too look beyond 7 days. That goes for when people are touting a major thaw or torch too. Often times the closer we get the more muted they become. I guess. And cautious is a good thing to be. Doesn't mean we can't discuss the potential more. The potential after the 22nd is as good as any since 2010 probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I guess. And cautious is a good thing to be. Doesn't mean we can't discuss the potential more. The potential after the 22nd is as good as any since 2010 probably. I'll wait til the 21st to discuss it ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'll wait til the 21st to discuss it ;-) Might be a good idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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