nzucker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Even last year with much better Atlantic blocking, NYC still finished below 30". But we saw how much better outlying areas did. 2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1 13.png I had 52" in southern Westchester last year... I still think Central Park gets 35-40" this year combining the end of January moderate snowstorm potential and a bigger chance in February with a -NAO due to the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like Saturday morning and Saturday night we stand a chance of a solid coating to inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like Saturday morning and Saturday night we stand a chance of a solid coating to inch It is a start my friend and something to get us excited for the upcoming pattern that is not a matter of it but when something big will occur for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like Saturday morning and Saturday night we stand a chance of a solid coating to inch It is a start my friend and something to get us excited for the upcoming pattern that is not a matter of it but when something big will occur for us Not all great patterns produce, though I have been woofing in the philly forum about something in the january 26-28 range. Looks like we get a transient block and should have ample energy to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The midweek system looks to be a cold system again , looks to be snowing in the teens again at some point . Now its a matter of how much moisture can be drawn in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Not all great patterns produce, though I have been woofing in the philly forum about something in the january 26-28 range. Looks like we get a transient block and should have ample energy to work with.Each one of the threats from that time period on have a legit shot of being something more than signifigant for our area. Just as you said lining it up with the right transient blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I broke down the 31 10" snowfalls we got since 1956 and this is what it shows... 11 storms had a -AO+PNA-NAO...3/20/58...12/11/60...2/6/78...2/11/83...1/8/96...12/30/00...1/25/04...12/19/09...2/9/10...2/25/10...1/26/11... ..5 storms had a +AO+PNA-NAO..3/18/56...2/3/61...1/12/64...12/5/03...1/25/05... ..4 storms had a +AO+PNA+NAO 12/21/59...2/6/67...2/4/95...2/16/03... ..4 storms had a -AO+PNA+NAO. 1/19/61...1/19/78...2/11/06...2/9/13... ..4 storms had a -AO-PNA+NAO.. 3/3/60...2/9/69...2/19/79...2/11/94... ..2 storms had a +AO-PNA+NAO. 3/13/93...2/16/96... ..1 storms had a -AO-PNA-NAO.. 12/26/10... ..0 storms had a +AO-PNA-NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Whats the GFS showing on the Midweek storm at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm really liking the MLK storm even though the gfs shows it generally OTS with limited moisture right now. I wouldn't want a bullseye in that range anyway, just the potential. With cold temps and higher than normal ratios, I think the best case would be a 4-6" snowfall, if not slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I broke down the 31 10" snowfalls we got since 1956 and this is what it shows... 11 storms had a -AO+PNA-NAO...3/20/58...12/11/60...2/6/78...2/11/83...1/8/96...12/30/00...1/25/04...12/19/09...2/9/10...2/25/10...1/26/11... ..5 storms had a +AO+PNA-NAO..3/18/56...2/3/61...1/12/64...12/5/03...1/25/05... ..4 storms had a +AO+PNA+NAO 12/21/59...2/6/67...2/4/95...2/16/03... ..4 storms had a -AO+PNA+NAO. 1/19/61...1/19/78...2/11/06...2/9/13... ..4 storms had a -AO-PNA+NAO.. 3/3/60...2/9/69...2/19/79...2/11/94... ..2 storms had a +AO-PNA+NAO. 3/13/93...2/16/96... ..1 storms had a -AO-PNA-NAO.. 12/26/10... ..0 storms had a +AO-PNA-NAO... Quite a few pos nao in there like we have now fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Whats the GFS showing on the Midweek storm at 12z? Right now nothing...a coating on Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Quite a few pos nao in there like we have now fwiw it's not exactly positive... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Quite a few pos nao in there like we have now fwiw it's not exactly positive... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html I meant where we are headed...saw quite a few posts stating we are trending pos nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I meant where we are headed...saw quite a few posts stating we are trending pos nao I'm not so sure about a positive nao coming up...the forecasts are for a drop before going positive...the main factor will be the PNA and if it stays positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I meant where we are headed...saw quite a few posts stating we are trending pos nao I'm not so sure about a positive nao coming up...the forecasts are for a drop before going positive...the main factor will be the PNA and if it stays positive... With the neg epo raging I don't see why we can't get a pos pna ridge to link up. My biggest concern is this cold snap / coming pattern will be north stream dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z GFS is very exciting. It trended a bit better with snow chances this weekend. Early next week is a near miss with a late redeveloping clipper. Perhaps some light snow or snow showers. Then the PV drops in and we have a few days with 850 temps of -20 to -24C centered over the region. It's not quite as cold as the 00z run which was even colder. Then the real fun begins day 9-10 as a piece of the polar vortex drops southward from central Canada and phases in and produces a blockbuster event from the deep south all the way up into New England. This is the same time period/energy that the 00z Euro was focusing in on. Obviously a lot can change and the details will need to be ironed out further, but the end of January looks very exciting from a weather enthusiast view point. And for those interested, the 12z GFS has a huge miller A sitting over the mid-atlantic at 00z 2/1, just in time for the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is one of the better 20 day periods I can remember setting up . It gets better as we get deeper into the period . Eventually the trough axis is going to line up and I think they are multiple events . Think when the 3 week period is over , we gona look back and say , how didnt we assume this was a gona happen . IMO The next two weeks look great for cold so January will finish solidly below normal for temperatures. With all this cold in place there will be multiple chances for snow. But hopefully at least one storm can breakout above nickle and dime status like the early January event did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z GFS is very exciting. It trended a bit better with snow chances this weekend. Early next week is a near miss with a late redeveloping clipper. Perhaps some light snow or snow showers. Then the PV drops in and we have a few days with 850 temps of -20 to -24C centered over the region. It's not quite as cold as the 00z run which was even colder. Then the real fun begins day 9-10 as a piece of the polar vortex drops southward from central Canada and phases in and produces a blockbuster event from the deep south all the way up into New England. This is the same time period/energy that the 00z Euro was focusing in on. Obviously a lot can change and the details will need to be ironed out further, but the end of January looks very exciting from a weather enthusiast view point. And for those interested, the 12z GFS has a huge miller A sitting over the mid-atlantic at 00z 2/1, just in time for the Super Bowl. The time period between the 25th onto super bowl time period must be watched for something big to happen out of the gulf of mexico and come up the eastern seaboard. Like PB GFI said we'll look back on this time period as surprising and in a good way whether it be the consistent cold or cold coupled with lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 A northeast blizzard on or around Superbowl Sunday would quite possibly be the most awesome thing of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The end few frames of the GFS scream MECS or better potential. WOW. Can't believe more people aren't discussing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The end few frames of the GFS scream MECS or better potential. WOW. Can't believe more people aren't discussing this. No pun intended, but how many times have seen this in fantasy range. Most models can't get a storm right in under 3 days and we are discussing the long range GFS for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 A northeast blizzard on or around Superbowl Sunday would quite possibly be the most awesome thing of all time. The problem is that they would postpone the game till the next day, which would s*ck. Would have to hope the snow arrives after halftime. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The end few frames of the GFS scream MECS or better potential. WOW. Can't believe more people aren't discussing this. See the bolded. The models are subject to enormous volatility once you get to that range (the atmosphere being non-linear and all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 No pun intended, but how many times have seen this in fantasy range. Most models can't get a storm right in under 3 days and we are discussing the long range GFS for storms Where's the pun? But yes I agree, anything beyond 7 days is pure fantasy on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 No pun intended, but how many times have seen this in fantasy range. Most models can't get a storm right in under 3 days and we are discussing the long range GFS for storms Yea.. But this time, re GFS Superbowl event, we have the almighty Farmers Almanac in its corner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 12z operational GFS is in line with the earlier run of the ensembles (12z isn't finished yet), showing 1-2 standard deviation cold on January 22. That implies the possibility of a high temperature below 20° (approximately 1.7σ below the average 1/21-23 high) and another low temperature in the single digits (approximately 1.5σ below the average 1/21-23 low). To date, NYC has had 4 single-digit lows (most since 2004-05 when there were 8) and 2 high temperatures below 20° (most since 2003-04 when there were 4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The end few frames of the GFS scream MECS or better potential. WOW. Can't believe more people aren't discussing this. It's always been a possibility. We just need a single storm to survive the under 120 hr test to see if holds or goes poof like the recent threats. But all the cold hanging around until around Superbowl time suggests that it wouldn't take much for another 6"+ event. Just would like to see it locked in within 72 hrs to officially pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's always been a possibility. We just need a single storm to survive the under 120 hr test to see if holds or goes poof like the recent threats. But all the cold hanging around until around Superbowl time suggests that it wouldn't take much for another 6"+ event. Just would like to see it locked in within 72 hrs to officially pull the trigger. The media attention would be outstanding . The way we see footage from 46 years ago\ of the ICE BOWL , and you witness THE SNOW BOWL . How great would that be to see footage in 30 years and think back to when u tracked it with a bunch of weather nuts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The media attention would be outstanding . The way we see footage from 46 years ago\ of the ICE BOWL , and you witness THE SNOW BOWL . How great would that be to see footage in 30 years and think back to when u tracked it with a bunch of weather nuts . In another week its going to get crazy anyway. If there's any shot at snow and cold it will be the top story. If there's a legit threat? I can't even imagine the media coverage the 5-7 days leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The media attention would be outstanding . The way we see footage from 46 years ago\ of the ICE BOWL , and you witness THE SNOW BOWL . How great would that be to see footage in 30 years and think back to when u tracked it with a bunch of weather nuts . Yeah, and don't forget the world famous Long Beach polar bear swim. http://www.longbeachpolarbears.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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