January Forecast Discussion

[kevbo81]

Great piece John . Think by Monday we will have multiple threats being followed inside 7 days.

fantastic write-up John!!

 

Let the games begin

[MJO812]

Light snow on the GGEM for the area on Saturday

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[earthlight]

Not sure if this is even worth a single grain of salt, but here is the ARW showing the inverted trough going crazy.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f63.gif

[MJO812]

The Ukie is also showing the inverted trough signal from NYC north.

[eduggs]

Not sure if this is even worth a single grain of salt, but here is the ARW showing the inverted trough going crazy.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f63.gif

I guess it bears watching with nothing else to really watch.  But several ARW members did the same thing with the current wave/weak coastal 2.5 days ago (~60hrs out).  Some of the hi-res models bite too strong with mesoscale features and the globals give weak hints in the 3-4 day time period.  But wave after wave looks basically the same to me... weak and disorganized with no focused mechanism for generating precip.

[Rjay]

The ARW is out to lunch more often than not. And the ARW members usually skew the SREF mean often

[Rjay]

Other models are showing this too but the ARW seems to over do it.

[Absolute Humidity]

Nice weenie 2 - 3" band over N central NJ to NYC, from Nassau west into PA on GGEM from norlun.

[wolfie09]

Euro still has a snow event for us on jan 21/22, nothing overly impressive, 2"-4" type deal verbatim..

[PB GFI]

The 0z Euro has a really nice look as far as SLP placement and its slow movement  . I`m not worries about  precip amounts 5 days out

its the hardest piece of the equation  the model sees sometimes .

 

Another similarity to early Jan its once again painting the scenario of a cold snow solution  at hr 150 its 22 at KNYC and dropping

during the height .

[PB GFI]

There`s you`re MECS at Day 9 on the Euro .  LR always a dice roll , must admit just nice to see that modeled

[atownwxwatcher]

Bigger storm at the end of the run but temperatures look warm long Island and coastal SNJ. Low goes right over top of LI.

[bluewave]

Notice with all the kickers and progressive flow and no Atlantic blocking how all the 

bigger threats past day 3-4 on Euro get smaller as we get closer. But if a piece

of EPO block can slip east like earlier in the month, we'll do better than a nickel

or dime event. The Euro really is struggling but it's in good agreement with the

GFS for another 10 degree or lower Arctic shot here next week.

[REDMK6GLI]

Notice with all the kickers and progressive flow with no Atlantic blocking how all the

bigger threats past day 3-4 on Euro get smaller as we get closer.

Delayed but not denied. If the blocking does indeed develop for febraury we may be under the gun for some possible KU action. Think about it the cold just has a fetish for the NE this winter, the PNA will be cooperating and blocking may actually develop with some legs. IMO im taking a break this month until 7 days before february because i think that is when mother nature will deliver the goods

[bluewave]

Delayed but not denied. If the blocking does indeed develop for febraury we may be under the gun for some possible KU action. Think about it the cold just has a fetish for the NE this winter, the PNA will be cooperating and blocking may actually develop with some legs. IMO im taking a break this month until 7 days before february because i think that is when mother nature will deliver the goods

 

Well...the older posters remember what happened here in early February 1995 in a Pacific dominated cold pattern.

We had a few storms slip off the cost in a progressive flow, but the event on the 4th finally clicked here as a brief

Davis Strait block went to work for us.The number 1 analog is showing the more progressive date, but we

would have to wait an see if the models go more Davis Strait in later runs for something good.

 

CPC 8-14 day analog composite

 

950208/0700

070202/0700

810203/0700

090115/0700

940131/0700

060212/0700

800123/0700

070128/0700

090121/0700

760202/0700

[bluewave]

The JMA retrogrades the Pacific(EPO) ridge in February, so the coldest temperatures in 

February will probably near the start of the month at tail end of the late Jan cold pattern.

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

The JMA retrogrades the Pacific(EPO) ridge in February, so the coldest temperatures in

February will probably near the start of the month at tail end of the late Jan cold pattern.

Y201401.D1100.png

In response to your previous reply, as far as ideal setup for a major snowstorm we're going to have to wait for some established blocking and not a well times davis strait transient block, although that "could" do the trick timed correctly. We're really walking a tight rope though if your looking for a pattern to produce a widespread 12"+ event however, in the end i think we'll be able to muster 3-6/4-8" events multiple times which is the way i feel NYC will be able to make a run at a 40" winter again by way of not getting a KU event

[Animal]

Maybe I am being pessimistic reading all these post about possible storms pending in the future.

The cold looks a lock.

We have had 3 storms on the radar that have all trended less favorable as we made the approach.

Recently the following are noted:

1) Storm yesterday today - I picked up 0.5 inches. A few days back it looked favorable

2) Storm Saturday - Talk of possibly 1-2 inches . A few days back it looked favorable

3) Storm Wednesday 22nd - Possibly 1-4 inches. A few day back looked more favorable.

 

Best.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Maybe I am being pessimistic reading all these post about possible storms pending in the future.

The cold looks a lock.

We have had 3 storms on the radar that have all trended less favorable as we made the approach.

Recently the following are noted:

1) Storm yesterday today - I picked up 0.5 inches. A few days back it looked favorable

2) Storm Saturday - Talk of possibly 1-2 inches . A few days back it looked favorable

3) Storm Wednesday 22nd - Possibly 1-4 inches. A few day back looked more favorable.

 

Best.

Pattern progression takes time and we will need to be patient. Beginning next week, the chances go up for bigger snows. The 22nd system, frankly, might miss us and hit SNE as the flow might still be a wee bit too progressive for us here. Between the 23rd and the end of the month, I think we see two legit threats and it will be hard to not get some good snows during this period.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

In response to your previous reply, as far as ideal setup for a major snowstorm we're going to have to wait for some established blocking and not a well times davis strait transient block, although that "could" do the trick timed correctly. We're really walking a tight rope though if your looking for a pattern to produce a widespread 12"+ event however, in the end i think we'll be able to muster 3-6/4-8" events multiple times which is the way i feel NYC will be able to make a run at a 40" winter again by way of not getting a KU event

Honestly, man, I think you're slightly overplaying the importance of the established block. Yes, that increases the odds...but with so many other indices favorable, and transient blocking showing on all models, we can pull off a more widespread storm in the upcoming pattern, no doubt. Also, look at the mid level maps in the LR. All have some form of a block, some weaker than others. Look at the GFS lol.

 

[REDMK6GLI]

Honestly, man, I think you're slightly overplaying the importance of the established block. Yes, that increases the odds...but with so many other indices favorable, and transient blocking showing on all models, we can pull off a more widespread storm in the upcoming pattern, no doubt. Also, look at the mid level maps in the LR. All have some form of a block, some weaker than others. Look at the GFS lol.

You are correct sir, but there is no real doubting that for someone who expects more than a MECS an established west based -NAO would be ideal. Yes, your correct in that transient blocks varying in intensity and longevity can also sway the outcome of an east coast snowstorm as saw with the 1/2-1/3 storm but with an established -NAO that was west based but not overwhelming that storm likely would've been one for the books. So yes i did slightly over emphasize the importance of established blocking but it is VERY important to have on your side for the big dogs IMO

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

You are correct sir, but there is no real doubting that for someone who expects more than a MECS an established west based -NAO would be ideal. Yes, your correct in that transient blocks varying in intensity and longevity can also sway the outcome of an east coast snowstorm as saw with the 1/2-1/3 storm but with an established -NAO that was west based but not overwhelming that storm likely would've been one for the books. So yes i did slightly over emphasize the importance of established blocking but it is VERY important to have on your side for the big dogs IMO

Cheers, and yes, a HECS is likely off the table without an established block. I define a HECS, these days, as anything over 20". I do think any amount under that is attainable should the modeled pattern actually come to fruition. And, since my area got shafted on 1/3, I'll happily take anything over the 5-6" I got from that one.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Not to mention there are signs of a split flow in the LR as well. This would also argue for more widespread snow potential. When I say widespread, I'm talking mid level NESIS events or greater.

[REDMK6GLI]

Cheers, and yes, a HECS is likely off the table without an established block. I define a HECS, these days, as anything over 20". I do think any amount under that is attainable should the modeled pattern actually come to fruition. And, since my area got shafted on 1/3, I'll happily take anything over the 5-6" I got from that one.

Furthermore like john said yesterday. With the bombing lows as they head into the atlantic/ canada should serve a purpose as well whether they do some good work towards the blocking or not. Looking at the setup we are not too far off from getting the chance at a HECS if blocking does indeed come close to fruition towards february in tandem with the -EPO/+PNA and the split flow pattern as your eluded to in the LR. The possibilities of having something of MECS or greater are there in the next 3-4 weeks, patience will have to be excersized however to achieve that idea setup to deliver the goods area wide with a big storm

[IsentropicLift]

The 4k NAM shows a quick burst of snow between 09 and 12z Saturday mainly over NNJ. It would likely be enough to drop a quick coating to possibly an inch.

 

The NAM then blows up a low pressure system well offshore on Sunday.

 

Earthlight, can you please check your PM's. Thanks.

[earthlight]

The best we can hope for the next two weeks is a transient Davis Strait block giving us a brief window for another

early January style event. A Davis Strait block locking long enough for another 40" winter looks like a long shot right

now. If I had to make an early guess, Central Park finishes this season between 25"-30". The -AO hasn't

been able to lock in here since the flip after last March. 

 

The current warming event in the stratosphere is continuing to strengthen. So if we continue to see favorable downwelling I think we can split the PV by the beginning of February. At that point we may begin to look at the potential for sustained high latitude blocking.

[PB GFI]

The best we can hope for the next two weeks is a transient Davis Strait block giving us a brief window for another

early January style event. A Davis Strait block locking long enough for another 40" winter looks like a long shot right

now. If I had to make an early guess, Central Park finishes this season between 25"-30". The -AO hasn't

been able to lock in here since the flip after last March. 

With Close to 20 inches already  in a lot of places , if we walk away from this pattern with only 5 to 10 I  will be shocked .

I am a buyer of 40 inches around when we total it up

[PB GFI]

I am talking Central Park proper which is sitting at 15". Outlying areas often beat the city.

ah ok , I like 40 for CN , and I  still thnk KNYC isn`t far behind

[PB GFI]

 

Even last year with much better Atlantic blocking, NYC still finished below 30". But we saw how much

better outlying areas did.

2012-13  0    0    0    0  4.7    0.4   1.5  12.2   7.3    0    0    0    26.1

This is one of the better 20 day periods I can remember setting up . It gets better as we get deeper into the period .

Eventually the trough axis is going to line up and I think they are multiple events .

Think when the 3 week period is over , we gona look back and say , how didnt we assume this was a gona happen  . IMO

[SnoSki14]

At the very least the cold air is gathering steam

and days with single digits is almost a lock.