EasternLI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Awesome outlines of upcoming pattern, much appreciated by all I would imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Awesome read Earthlight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 John, great job explaining the setup. Shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm giddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Good reads today guys thx =) ...Lets Goo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great post earthlight! Very nice explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Very good post earthlight. I look forward to the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i creamed in my briefs, and learned something in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i creamed in my briefs, and learned something in the process.Deeply disturbing, although I'll echo what everyone's said about John's post, one of the most informative posts you'll ever see on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great discussion! Only issue I have with getting excited for big snow storms in this pattern is the lack of true blocking over the N Atl to Greenland. Heights rise over N Greenland but we're maintaining this N Atl ridge pattern. So we drop this anomalous trough into the eastern US, up against the ridge, and upper level winds are screaming from the S/SW. Certainly a baroclinic environment, and the monster ridge in the west favors amplifying disturbances, so east coast cyclogenesis potential looks great. But without more of a block to the NE, looks like a pattern that'll have 980mb lows zipping by with 6 hours of snow. Granted that can easily be a 10" storm, but in the great quest for a MECS, I would want more blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great discussion! Only issue I have with getting excited for big snow storms in this pattern is the lack of true blocking over the N Atl to Greenland. Heights rise over N Greenland but we're maintaining this N Atl ridge pattern. So we drop this anomalous trough into the eastern US, up against the ridge, and upper level winds are screaming from the S/SW. Certainly a baroclinic environment, and the monster ridge in the west favors amplifying disturbances, so east coast cyclogenesis potential looks great. But without more of a block to the NE, looks like a pattern that'll have 980mb lows zipping by with 6 hours of snow. Granted that can easily be a 10" storm, but in the great quest for a MECS, I would want more blocking. Yeah, although with the PV so close to us you'd still want any blocking to be relatively weak and you also need a SE ridge to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great discussion! Only issue I have with getting excited for big snow storms in this pattern is the lack of true blocking over the N Atl to Greenland. Heights rise over N Greenland but we're maintaining this N Atl ridge pattern. So we drop this anomalous trough into the eastern US, up against the ridge, and upper level winds are screaming from the S/SW. Certainly a baroclinic environment, and the monster ridge in the west favors amplifying disturbances, so east coast cyclogenesis potential looks great. But without more of a block to the NE, looks like a pattern that'll have 980mb lows zipping by with 6 hours of snow. Granted that can easily be a 10" storm, but in the great quest for a MECS, I would want more blocking. Aren't you, Adam and Hm talking about that very thing on twitter lately? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Aren't you, Adam and Hm talking about that very thing on twitter lately? ;-) For a downwelling SSW, true -NAO blocking develops in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 For a downwelling SSW, true -NAO blocking develops in February Till then, ( which I hope materializes) we're stuck with a progressive flow. It can snow in this scenario, as proven in December. Little shows for now, maybe blockbuster later mid feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 For a downwelling SSW, true -NAO blocking develops in February Now, I'm totally naked (that would be outstanding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Till then, ( which I hope materializes) we're stuck with a progressive flow. It can snow in this scenario, as proven in December. Little shows for now, maybe blockbuster later mid feb It'll snow. It'll snow more in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great discussion! Only issue I have with getting excited for big snow storms in this pattern is the lack of true blocking over the N Atl to Greenland. Heights rise over N Greenland but we're maintaining this N Atl ridge pattern. So we drop this anomalous trough into the eastern US, up against the ridge, and upper level winds are screaming from the S/SW. Certainly a baroclinic environment, and the monster ridge in the west favors amplifying disturbances, so east coast cyclogenesis potential looks great. But without more of a block to the NE, looks like a pattern that'll have 980mb lows zipping by with 6 hours of snow. Granted that can easily be a 10" storm, but in the great quest for a MECS, I would want more blocking. I agree with this concern in full. I think the issue for me moving forward is how and when does this gyre of sorts retrograde farther west than Central Canada? This is always the issue in these retrograding pattern progressions. In 2010 we saw it retrograde to a perfect spot and we had the big time blocking build into the Davis Straight at the same time. And so that progression was absolutely classic and nearly perfect -- textbook. I don't think we can compare this to that yet until we see some sustained high latitude blocking development. But what we are seeing on medium range guidance is a big first step toward it. Anyway...the other thing getting my attention is the potential split flow development once the ridge retrogrades back off the west coast. With the PV just north of us in Canada and increasing moisture available..a load of possibilities there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great discussion! Only issue I have with getting excited for big snow storms in this pattern is the lack of true blocking over the N Atl to Greenland. Heights rise over N Greenland but we're maintaining this N Atl ridge pattern. So we drop this anomalous trough into the eastern US, up against the ridge, and upper level winds are screaming from the S/SW. Certainly a baroclinic environment, and the monster ridge in the west favors amplifying disturbances, so east coast cyclogenesis potential looks great. But without more of a block to the NE, looks like a pattern that'll have 980mb lows zipping by with 6 hours of snow. Granted that can easily be a 10" storm, but in the great quest for a MECS, I would want more blocking. The types of large snowstorms in this pattern are generally Miller Bs...but they are hard to get into KU status. January 1961 was able to pull it off in a very similar pattern progged. January 2005 was somewhat similar, though I liked the Atlantic a tad bit more in that setup than our upcomibng pattern. Both were Miller Bs. But I'd probably favor a series of smaller events at this point. But sometimes those clipper/redevelopers can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree with this concern in full. I think the issue for me moving forward is how and when does this gyre of sorts retrograde farther west than Central Canada? This is always the issue in these retrograding pattern progressions.In 2010 we saw it retrograde to a perfect spot and we had the big time blocking build into the Davis Straight at the same time. And so that progression was absolutely classic and nearly perfect -- textbook. I don't think we can compare this to that yet until we see some sustained high latitude blocking development. But what we are seeing on medium range guidance is a big first step toward it.Anyway...the other thing getting my attention is the potential split flow development once the ridge retrogrades back off the west coast. With the PV just north of us in Canada and increasing moisture available..a load of possibilities there too.transient blocks occur in these patterns John, cripes just look at Boston blizzard this month. You wrote a beautiful piece, laying out very well the options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The types of large snowstorms in this pattern are generally Miller Bs...but they are hard to get into KU status. January 1961 was able to pull it off in a very similar pattern progged. January 2005 was somewhat similar, though I liked the Atlantic a tad bit more in that setup than our upcomibng pattern. Both were Miller Bs. But I'd probably favor a series of smaller events at this point. But sometimes those clipper/redevelopers can surprise. exactly I don't think John is calling for a KU either but certainly some of our great snowstorms have occurred with very similar setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree with this concern in full. I think the issue for me moving forward is how and when does this gyre of sorts retrograde farther west than Central Canada? This is always the issue in these retrograding pattern progressions.In 2010 we saw it retrograde to a perfect spot and we had the big time blocking build into the Davis Straight at the same time. And so that progression was absolutely classic and nearly perfect -- textbook. I don't think we can compare this to that yet until we see some sustained high latitude blocking development. But what we are seeing on medium range guidance is a big first step toward it.Anyway...the other thing getting my attention is the potential split flow development once the ridge retrogrades back off the west coast. With the PV just north of us in Canada and increasing moisture available..a load of possibilities there too.transient blocks occur in these patterns John, cripes just look at Boston blizzard this month. You wrote a beautiful piece, laying out very well the options. Thanks man. Means a lot espec. coming from someone like yourself, Scott, etc. The transient blocks definitely occur, and can often be timed well too. But as far as really slowing down the flow and talking about something more established in the higher latitudes, I think we will have to wait a little longer for the strat warming to really down well. I haven't been able to check the vectors lately -- where are we at with that? They were looking decent as recently as Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 exactly I don't think John is calling for a KU either but certainly some of our great snowstorms have occurred with very similar setups. Oh I didn't say he was. I was just agreeing with Sam that bigger storms are tough to come by in this pattern. Even with a transient block...you saw how the Jan 2-3 storm just scooted quickly once the coastal developed and was pretty far SE. That "block" in Greenland was barely worth the name. It was pretty weak...though it certainly didn't hurt. But the big storms can still happen. I gave two examples. Preferably to slow things down without a true block is to get a pretty potent 50/50 feature well-timed and it can basically act as block temporarily. The reason we love Greenland blocks is that they basically force a semi-permanent 50/50 feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The types of large snowstorms in this pattern are generally Miller Bs...but they are hard to get into KU status. January 1961 was able to pull it off in a very similar pattern progged. January 2005 was somewhat similar, though I liked the Atlantic a tad bit more in that setup than our upcomibng pattern. Both were Miller Bs. But I'd probably favor a series of smaller events at this point. But sometimes those clipper/redevelopers can surprise. I don't necessarily disagree with this idea, but I do think that this pattern is retrograding and not necessarily something that is set in stone to only deliver late-developing Miller B's. If the ensemble guidance is correct in bringing the center of the upper level low back over Central Canada, that opens up the door for much more significant amplification farther south, especially when combined with the presence of the big time ridge on the West Coast. Just my thoughts...at this range mostly heresay given the changes we've seen on guidance on a day to day basis. The general idea moving forward though is for a very favorable period essentially from 1/22 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I don't necessarily disagree with this idea, but I do think that this pattern is retrograding and not necessarily something that is set in stone to only deliver late-developing Miller B's. If the ensemble guidance is correct in bringing the center of the upper level low back over Central Canada, that opens up the door for much more significant amplification farther south, especially when combined with the presence of the big time ridge on the West Coast. Just my thoughts...at this range mostly heresay given the changes we've seen on guidance on a day to day basis. The general idea moving forward though is for a very favorable period essentially from 1/22 onward. I mentioned back in the New England subforum that I think a more widespread system might be favorable in the final 5 days of the month or so...but the initial pattern for Jan 21-26 or so will not favor that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Speaking of 50/50 lows...one has to wonder if we may have multiple chances to slow down the pattern with any phasing system coming around the upper level low in canada. It may not go into the textbook 50/50 position but any rapidly deepening surface low near there could serve to slow down the pattern. You loop this and you realize we'll probably have more than a few swings at this thing.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree with this concern in full. I think the issue for me moving forward is how and when does this gyre of sorts retrograde farther west than Central Canada? This is always the issue in these retrograding pattern progressions. In 2010 we saw it retrograde to a perfect spot and we had the big time blocking build into the Davis Straight at the same time. And so that progression was absolutely classic and nearly perfect -- textbook. I don't think we can compare this to that yet until we see some sustained high latitude blocking development. But what we are seeing on medium range guidance is a big first step toward it. Anyway...the other thing getting my attention is the potential split flow development once the ridge retrogrades back off the west coast. With the PV just north of us in Canada and increasing moisture available..a load of possibilities there too. Absolutely. And your emphasis of the importance of the PV enlongation is spot on. That's when we can actually get some real perturbations on the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Good stuff in here, I agree with OK too, blocking setting up in February seems a real possibility, combined with a very cold background and it's happy happy happy time. Good luck fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Nice post John, Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Gfs looking interesting still for this weekend, a bit deeper with that shortwave probably giving us a few snow showers with a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Bitterly cold air now on the 00z GFS starting early next week. Lows close to 0 coming again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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