January Forecast Discussion

[uncle W]

I wouldn't use 1994 as an analog because it is to the extreme...It could be a combination of 1991 and 1984...That would mean slightly below average temperatures and above average snowfall...

[REDMK6GLI]

I wouldn't use 1994 as an analog because it is to the extreme...It could be a combination of 1991 and 1984...That would mean slightly below average temperatures and above average snowfall...

Still going to be downright cold. I agree 1994 is in a league of its own with the coldest departures from average for many people on this board they've ever seen. Will they're be records broken? We'll see but not very often do we see record lows/low maximums broken in a large area. Very exciting and i think we can eek out a nice snowstorm or two, but thats more to do with the SE ridge over anything

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

94 was amazing for cold the great South Bay froze pretty insane have not seen anything like that since. Precip wise it was not a great winter right at the coast the two feb storms were sleet tastik right at the coast. My school at the time in wantagh is a good 3 miles north of my house and I remember leaving school with snow to return to sleet fest by the bay. The ultimate coastal front.

[Mikehobbyst]

NYC and LI areas:

 

I think we have a NESIS 3-4 MECS event potential between 1/2 and 1/5 based on the pattern and indices, and good chance of 5 degree F nights for the first two weeks of Jan 14, with -25 C 850's stuck over the Tri-State area for first half of January.  There may be no January thaw this time, we had it last weekend.  Mets what do you think ? Can this cold snowy pattern hang on through most of Feb 14 un-abated. I think we will do it this time. I bet we have a hot and SVR thunderstorm laden June this year, as the 94 June proved. after that harsh winter.  Is the Jan 94 and Jan 14 pattern really that close, even w/out the Pinatubo volcano a factor ?  Can the -EPO / -AO and +PNA survive through mid Feb 14 ? 40-60 day pattern locked.   Do you think we get a massive blocking in Feb 14 with neutral to -QBO by then ??  Solar inputs ?  I would go 2-5 degrees F warmer than the 1/1994 minimums.

[PB GFI]

The GFS continues to advertise an EC system around the Jan 4th time frame. Too far away to focus on but let's see how it looks in 5 days

[REDMK6GLI]

NYC and LI areas:

I think we have a NESIS 3-4 MECS event potential between 1/2 and 1/5 based on the pattern and indices, and good chance of 5 degree F nights for the first two weeks of Jan 14, with -25 C 850's stuck over the Tri-State area for first half of January. There may be no January thaw this time, we had it last weekend. Mets what do you think ? Can this cold snowy pattern hang on through most of Feb 14 un-abated. I think we will do it this time. I bet we have a hot and SVR thunderstorm laden June this year, as the 94 June proved. after that harsh winter. Is the Jan 94 and Jan 14 pattern really that close, even w/out the Pinatubo volcano a factor ? Can the -EPO / -AO and +PNA survive through mid Feb 14 ? 40-60 day pattern locked. Do you think we get a massive blocking in Feb 14 with neutral to -QBO by then ?? Solar inputs ? I would go 2-5 degrees F warmer than the 1/1994 minimums.

These are some BOLD statements. With the cold and favorable indices as we head towards january we do have the chance of getting some snowstorms but a nesis 3-4 storm is going to be BIG. Lets get to the pattern first then we can start swinging for the fences, or in your case a grand slam. Still TONS of details to iron out atm, cold with come and so will the storms ( cue PB GFI )

[NEG NAO]

The GFS continues to advertise an EC system around the Jan 4th time frame. Too far away to focus on but let's see how it looks in 5 days

I agree with you - the GFS is just indicating storm potential and that potential Jan 4th on the 0Z GFS and 06Z Gfs is inconsisitent - OZ showed snow to a rainstorm and the 6Z for  Jan 4th time frame is a lighter event all frozen

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

[PB GFI]

The Control run has it as well  , but its a clipper that deepens near AC then takes it to the BM . LR always just a dice roll .

 

 

I agree with you - the GFS is just indicating storm potential and that potential Jan 4th on the 0Z GFS and 06Z Gfs is inconsisitent - OZ showed snow to a rainstorm and the 6Z for  Jan 4th time frame is a lighter event all frozen

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

[PB GFI]

Between D7 - 15 the PV is trapped . The NA ridge has retrograded over this period and denied the vortex`s movement East

so as per EC ensembles , its stuck and just spins back  .

 

[ace0927]

Between D7 - 15 the PV is trapped . The NA ridge has retrograded over this period and denied the vortex`s movement East

so as per EC ensembles , its stuck and just spins back  .

 

thats a cold and likely dry pattern....the isobars are tightly packed with little room to amplify

[PB GFI]

thats a cold and likely dry pattern....the isobars are tightly packed with little room to amplify

You are only seeing D15 . D 10 has a chance  . We will see .  

[White Gorilla]

Potential is strong. That's all I can say with confidence right now.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

thats a cold and likely dry pattern....the isobars are tightly packed with little room to amplify

C'mon man. really?

[ace0927]

C'mon man. really?

we went through the same thing last year or two winters ago (Typhoon Tip from the SNE forum had a long write up about setups like that). How can anything amplify with that exact depiction - im not saying its the gospel or exactly the way its going to happen....

[REDMK6GLI]

we went through the same thing last year or two winters ago (Typhoon Tip from the SNE forum had a long write up about setups like that). How can anything amplify with that exact depiction - im not saying its the gospel or exactly the way its going to happen....

Typhoon tip has had some great analysis/ forecasts and i understand what your saying regarding his input on these setups. Its VERY rare to get an amplified/ stronger east coast system during a peak cold outbreak as suppression dominates, however during periods of relaxation it allows for the amplification needed and cold air source necessary to produce a snowstorm of note. There will be chances for storms with the favorable indices by new years and also the -EPO but its still going to come down to timing with all players on the field to get a SECS/MECS

[SnoSki14]

I think there's a strong signal for a good storm in early January as the 12z gfs depicts. A strong arctic front prior to that helps set up widespread cold prior to the storm. Day 5 looks kind of interesting. You have the arctic front coming down and a southern stream low to the SE, I wonder if those could hook up as we get closer, any strong phase without blocking would be a long shot, but it's something to monitor. 

[MJO812]

Euro is frigid and wintry.

[jm1220]

Euro is frigid and wintry.

Hour 240 drives the Polar Vortex right into NY State.

 

850 temps here are something like -25 and it's -30 further north.

[Superstorm93]

By Day 10 the ECMWF has temps at H85 near -25C 

 

At this time I'd favor a very cold, but dry first half of the month. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

By Day 10 the ECMWF has temps at H85 near -25C 

 

At this time I'd favor a very cold, but dry first half of the month. 

Lol. All guidance indicates a cold but very wet first half of the month bro.

[Coastalfront]

Lol. All guidance indicates a cold but very wet first half of the month bro.

nothing shows very wet, cold and dry is the look with breif period of above nomal ahead of fronts like this weekend.

[PB GFI]

The problem is , That's not dry , the kick in the A$% is , that's not Snow either .

let the pattern unfold , patience may be required .

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

nothing shows very wet, cold and dry is the look with breif period of above nomal ahead of fronts like this weekend.

Whatever you say.

[SnoSki14]

nothing shows very wet, cold and dry is the look with breif period of above nomal ahead of fronts like this weekend.

 

The NAO stays neutral or positive, I don't see a dry pattern at all. I also don't see a huge storm either, but we could definitely see moderate storms. 

[PB GFI]

These are the 850`s that go along with the system that's being shown on the Euro Control run  and  its Ensembles for  early next week . The 12z op has a 1005 MB low off Hatteras @ 126 , by 132 its east of AC and is down to 996  and by 138 its 985 just  east of Cape cod  its a 20 MB drop in 12 hours , and in a pretty good location , yet the operational precip field looks tight , it should be more expansive IMO . 850`s are plus 2  and the surface is 40 in NYC .

So I think you have to watch this for a potential interior event early next week .

[Superstorm93]

Lol. All guidance indicates a cold but very wet first half of the month bro.

 

Care to elaborate on what you're seeing? The ECMWF/GFS and their ensembles point towards a pattern where the majority of the precip is offshore for the first fifteen days.  

 

I don't expect the first half of the month to have absolutely no precipitation, just ever so slightly below normal for now. I'm not hedging what I think solely on the models, but rather the magnitude of cold air that will be overtaking the region doesn't usually allow for a period of "very wet" conditions. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Care to elaborate on what you're seeing? The ECMWF/GFS and their ensembles point towards a pattern where the majority of the precip is offshore for the first fifteen days.

I don't expect the first half of the month to have absolutely no precipitation, just ever so slightly below normal for now.

Wow. Actually look at the models. They are all painting a frigid and wet mid range.

[Superstorm93]

Wow. Actually look at the models. They are all painting a frigid and wet mid range.

 

You're coming off as rather pompous, but I'll agree to disagree for now. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

You're coming off as rather pompous, but I'll agree to disagree for now.

Today's euro shows two snow threats with another building at the end of the run. Last nights gfs should two snow threats. Today another. The CMC has a snow bomb on a run last night. We have a raging -EPO returning, the arctic flood gates reopening, the AO going negative, an active northern stream, the MJO moving into a more favorable phase for cyclogenesis, AND an active STJ showing on LR guidance. The pattern coming up looks undeniably cold and active. If you disagree you're not reading the indices correctly.

[atownwxwatcher]

European from 12 Z shows a snow threat from 216 hrs out or on January 2nd (since this thread is about January) 

 

GFS op shows a snow threat as well..However..not much support from the individual members...

 

 

The threat still in December is South and east at around 132 hrs out but it is shown to be a coastal scraper with temperatures in the 40s. So that at this point and time would be a rain threat!