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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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My last post on the issue and to you since you continue to be a trolling warminista even after all these years.

 

The 12z Euro was probably the best looking LR run of the season for the entire area, showing massive potential by months end. Rebuilding raging -EPO with cold and northern stream vorts, one after another, coming down into the CONUS. The day 5 system is now also looking like a possible snow threat, which was not the case until today. Yet your take from it is that it shows no snow or cold prior to day 7 and you don't care about what is shows for day 9. Fundamental lack of understanding of meteorology.

 

Everyone else here is looking at the mid levels, and you're busy complaining about the lack of surface snow. WTF cares what the surface shows? Frankly, that you're even looking at the surface again shows a fundamental lack of understanding of meteorology.

 

LOL, looking at the surface again. - I NEVER LOOK AT THE SURFACE. 

 

I posted a h5 map. You know that right? Can you read that map?

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Dude, it's 9 DAYS OUT. The model, as depicted is showing a rough 50/50 signature; details to be worked out later. It is also showing somewhat of a blocking signal, east or west based, I don't give a cripe yet. wtf else are you expecting it show at day 9? A 970 bomb off on the benchmark?

 

The reason people have an issue with you is because you have yet to even acknowledge the potential of the pattern. You are acting as though the Euro showed a pumping SE ridge and 70 degree temps the whole run. THere is no difference in your analysis from run to run. It always sucks. Well, in this case, it's better for NNE. lol, same ole Ace. Even after 10 years.

dude its 9 days out - why are you wasting time looking at? There hasnt been an instance this year where a day 9 depiction has come to fruition.

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the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west

Considering that we have a progressive pattern as a mean, we won't have to worry about that. If anything, we have to worry about a graze (close call).

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dude its 9 days out - why are you wasting time looking at? There hasnt been an instance this year where a day 9 depiction has come to fruition.

After a decade, same ole ace. You are clearly not reading anything I am posting, so we're done. You post H5 maps, but then only talk about the how ****ty the surface looks. Warminista. Peace.

 

For everyone else, mid levels are looking better for later this week and awesome for next week and beyond! 

 

test8.gif

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It certainly looks good going forward but a KU type event is a big question mark if the NAO is positive. Maybe something along the lines of February 2006, wasn't that all PNA induced. 

Yep...it's a 4-8/6-10" look for EOM right now. Remember that for the Jan 3rd event, the transient block didn't show up on the models until a few days before. Plenty of time...

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the system on the 18th could easily be all rain for us. the last thing we need with this setup is higher than average heights to our east. any more amplification and it runs west

 

All rain is unlikely strictly based on climo of storms that tend to bend onshore in winter...something more or along the lines of what occurred in 12/30/00 or 2/25/10 is more likely, we usually do not quite get a Sandy like pull to systems in the winter whereby places west of CNTRL CT or WRN LI will see much rain but definitely ERN LI and ERN CT and SRN NE could get screwed in this setup

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No doubt. I'm thinking a 4-8/6-10 type event between 1/21 and 1/25 and potentially a KU between 1/28 and 2/3. I mean look at the global ens now? Raging -EPO, raging +PNA and some -NAO signal. 

 

Please on Feb 2nd

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Please on Feb 2nd

Please on Feb 2nd

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Ha looks like  Jan 22 - 23 rd though . Euro control is nice .

 

I will add the Control run Snows here Fri into Sat , the track is similar to the Canadian .

 

not saying its right , but its East and Colder  than the operational .

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So can KNYC match the +4 from earlier this month?

could be below 0 if there is snow on the ground - thats the only reason it didn't go below 0 last week - no snow cover - but very impressive cold without snowcover last week

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All rain is unlikely strictly based on climo of storms that tend to bend onshore in winter...something more or along the lines of what occurred in 12/30/00 or 2/25/10 is more likely, we usually do not quite get a Sandy like pull to systems in the winter whereby places west of CNTRL CT or WRN LI will see much rain but definitely ERN LI and ERN CT and SRN NE could get screwed in this setup

 

Now were talking here! lol..  Only way that I can see this happening is if the surface low smashes into LI. Many here on the western side of things would welcome that with open arms..

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