Jersey Shore snow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Todays Euro is almost through the roof exciting. This place will be hopping in a few days. Loaded with potential....multiple threats next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Todays Euro is almost through the roof exciting. This place will be hopping in a few days. if you live in N-C NE, yeah its very exciting (as depicted for at least the next 7 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 if you live in N-C NE, yeah its very exciting (as depicted for at least the next 7 days) The run was as exciting for LI as everywhere else bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 if you live in N-C NE, yeah its very exciting (as depicted for at least the next 7 days) The pattern moving forward looks great for our area. Alot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I am really intrigued with next week and beyond with storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The run was as exciting for LI as everywhere else bro. the pattern looks good after day 7...there isnt any wintry precip/snow prior to that... I think the trough goes negative to early, without any blocking or a hP to the north we would flood with warm air. Look at the position of the low - that would likely dictate ESE surface winds (probably at h85 as well). Never good to see a wrapped up system in east-central VA. with an h5 trough going negative...can a red-tagger confirm this please. To me that looks like an obvious mountains (catskills, Appalachians, Dacks and up through NE) snowstorm. Edit - I think the culprit might be the ridge axis - its too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro have the weekend system and both have the 22 nd system . With a pos PNA , Neg EPO and the PV forecast to come SE you have to assume you are going into a favorable pattern with multiple threats . Followed by really COLD air by D 10 thru 15 . That doesn't happen that often around here too often . You cant approach R/S lines 7 plus days out . look at the pattern you are in , you are going back below normal with systems on the EC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ace, just because you don't see any wintry precip at the surface, doesn't mean the mid levels don't support it. Starting with later this week. And of course the storm on the 22nd is very intriguing. Your analysis of the 22nd system is incorrect, as both a 50/50 and transient -NAO are in place per the above. If anything, the mid levels support a much more robust snow event at the surface on the Euro. But these are details that are inconsequential so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I would never take this literally but its E of the Euro , useless to look at R/S lines this far out point is the pattern supports EC systems . All the models are seeing it . So just be patient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ace, just because you don't see any wintry precip at the surface, doesn't mean the mid levels don't support it. Starting with later this week. And of course the storm on the 22nd is very intriguing. Your analysis of the 22nd system is incorrect, as both a 50/50 and transient -NAO are in place per the above. If anything, the mid levels support a much more robust snow event at the surface on the Euro. But these are details that are inconsequential so far out. 850's are around 0C, give or take a little and ABOVE 0C for eastern sections. There is little doubt, BASED ON THE CURRENT EURO 120HR MAP, that its NOT snow for the majority of us. Who is analyzing a storm that is 8-9 days away? Why would one waste their time? Look at the time stamp on the maps I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I would never take this literally but its E of the Euro , useless to look at R/S lines this far out point is the pattern supports EC systems . All the models are seeing it . So just be patient . that is day 9....that will change 36 times. Looking past 60 hrs on the GFS is a recipe for disapointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 850's are around 0C, give or take a little and ABOVE 0C for eastern sections. There is little doubt, BASED ON THE CURRENT EURO 120HR MAP, that its NOT snow for the majority of us. Who is analyzing a storm that is 8-9 days away? Why would one waste their time? Look at the time stamp on the maps I posted. Who said the storm this Friday was showing anything other than rain for the coast? Lol. It's the mid levels that argue for further amplification of the trough. Friday is still very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Your analysis of the 22nd system is incorrect, as both a 50/50 and transient -NAO are in place per the above. If anything, the mid levels support a much more robust snow event at the surface on the Euro. But these are details that are inconsequential so far out. and because you brought it up - 50/50 means 50/50 not 500 miles displayed from 50/50. Just because there is something in the, less than, general vicinity, doesnt make it so. 50/50 is just off the Labrador/NFW coast....also there is a very east based area of blocking...that is usually better for NE than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean pops a low just south of Long Island at hour 120 and then quickly tracks it up into Long Island and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 that is day 9....that will change 36 times. Looking past 60 hrs on the GFS is a recipe for disapointment Huh , you posted the 120 hr Euro. So that's not gona change but the GFS will ? No bigger fan of the Euro than me , it been awful this year D7 plus . You are the one talking RS line 7 days out , Everyone here is saying the pattern is great . You brought up RS line this far out which was comical to us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Who said the storm this Friday was showing anything other than rain for the coast? Lol. It's the mid levels that argue for further amplification of the trough. Friday is still very much in play. huh? Go back and read your posts. Why anyone would be having an extensive conversation about a hr216 map is ridiculous...and how you could be confused about what I have been referring to is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 and because you brought it up - 50/50 means 50/50 not 500 miles displayed from 50/50. Just because there is something in the, less than, general vicinity, doesnt make it so. 50/50 is just off the Labrador/NFW coast....also there is a very east based area of blocking...that is usually better for NE than us. So, there's a 50/50 and blocking as I said. Might not be in the ideal position, but it is 9 days out. Regardless, you were busy telling us how the 6 day Euro is etched in stone? LOLOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Huh , you posted the 120 hr Euro. So that's not gona change but the GFS will ? No bigger fan of the Euro than me , it been awful this year D7 plus . You are the one talking RS line 7 days out , Everyone here is saying the pattern is great . You brought up RS line this far out which was comical to us . if I posted the he 120 map, can you please tell me how that is 7 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 huh? Go back and read your posts. Why anyone would be having an extensive conversation about a hr216 map is ridiculous...and how you could be confused about what I have been referring to is questionable. We said that the Models all see EC systems at 120 and 216 . 5 day day 9 , No one locked in types . we just said the pattern looks great , that's all we wrote . All the models see 2 systems on the EC let it play out , No one setting anything in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 You are flat out wrong. We are discussing the pattern. The only person discussing surface details is you. Classic Ace, lol. reading in fundamental. ace0927, on 13 Jan 2014 - 2:15 PM, said: if you live in N-C NE, yeah its very exciting (as depicted for at least the next 7 days) The run was as exciting for LI as everywhere else bro. That was your response to my C-N NE post.... so please in your infinite wisdom explain what you mean when you refer to exciting - when I qualified my statement at being the next 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We said that the Models all see EC systems at 120 and 216 . 5 day day 9 , No one locked in types . we just said the pattern looks great , that's all we wrote . All the models see 2 systems on the EC let it play out , No one setting anything in stone. i understand, and I politely showed you why the day 5 storm is questionable at best...instead of any intellectual chatter, I just get bombarded with crap because I "rained" on wolfs parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 if I posted the he 120 map, can you please tell me how that is 7 days out? SHR 5 . The GFS and Canadian are east at 120 . So are the Euro ensembles . Just ENJOY , you are going into a really good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean pops a low just south of Long Island at hour 120 and then quickly tracks it up into Long Island and New England. They are only out to 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 They are only out to 96 hrs I already have them out to hour 210. Regarding the second system for late in the week, quite a large amount of spread and right about where you would expect them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 They are only out to 96 hrs Yeh im out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The Euro ens are similar to the Op. Good news; means the big changes at H5 have legs and we can continue to look for positive trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 So, there's a 50/50 and blocking as I said. Might not be in the ideal position, but it is 9 days out. Regardless, you were busy telling us how the 6 day Euro is etched in stone? LOLOL. how old are you??? it cant be a 50/50 if its 62/62 can it now? So let me understand this - the look can ONLY improve, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 500 mb looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 SHR 5 . The GFS and Canadian are east at 120 . So are the Euro ensembles . Just ENJOY , you are going into a really good pattern but you said I was arguing r/s line at day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Guys , this is prob the best I`ve seen a day thru 5 thru 15 MB look all year , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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