mob1 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 2-5" areawide from 126-140 hours on the Euro with that late-developing system.That looks pretty good, I remember a weekend storm about 8-10 years ago that had a similar evolution, it poured for like 2 days straight with a storm cutting west of us and then some trailing energy moved up the coast and gave us 4-8 inches of snow on Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 2-5" areawide from 126-140 hours on the Euro with that late-developing system. It will be interesting to see what the models show in a few days as they have been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the models show in a few days as they have been all over the place. The GFS is having problems because its trying to develop a split flow pattern...I'm not sure if that idea is right or not but regardless the GFS and even dating back to the AVN days has had big problems with split flow patterns in the lack of any significant NATL blocking...it will almost always blowtorch everyone in those setups for whatever reason, in the 93-94 winter the AVN showed rain for almost every single event past day 3 up til day 5 which is I believe how far it ran out then...the GFS has those problems still although now it has them past Day 8 vs. inside Day 5...if there is significant NATL blocking it usually will verify a bit better though often still warm...thats my guess as to why the GFS is very warm past Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The euro ensembles and control run look great once past Tuesday . There are 2 systems on the map. Plus cold followed by colder. By the end of the run the maps want to set up a big EC system ( while it takes the EPO neg ) There have been times during this year especially the last cold shot , where the ensembles picks something up early , drops it but brings it back as we got closer. With a Pos PNA and a Neg NAO this period has some promise. I don't like to buy the Euro or any model past day 5 but its nice to see stuff like this pop up . The 0z Euro ensembles lose the ridge out west after day 10 , dumps the trough in the west and warms the EC totally opposite of its 12 z from yesterday . It is prone to do this only to bring it out in future runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Over next 15 days the 500mb pattern is only favorable here bet. 1/14--1/18. The 850mb. temps. are never better than neutral for the northeast. Mid-month has a small window for the NAO-PNA combo to be favorable. EPO and WPO are just un-favorable or 'less' un-favorable at times. MJO is muddled. ENSO is barely able to keep southerly jet active enough to be interesting. Stratosphere may be OK for us but where is the beef, or did we already eat it with artic outbreak last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The pattern looks great moving forward. Mjo looks to move into 7 and possibly 8. The Euro has a nice looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Classic +PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Even the Navgem ens look good, could be a nice little period coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Once past Tues the reload begins. The 12z euro ensembles look very good . I like the potential pattern for an EC system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Pauley, When next weekend? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Pauley, When next weekend? Rossi One of these troughs on the Euro that crash in could spin something up on the EC. With a Pos PNA I just like the period the flow may slow just enough to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 0z GFS has a really nice looking pattern moving forward. Northern stream/ clippers galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Models are hinting that the PNA ridge will retrograde back to around Alaska and eventually drop the EPO yet again. The end result will probably be a trough hanging out near the East for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 12z GEFS look sexy. What a change from a week ago. It showed a big warmup.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 For those wondering about whether this winter will see any additional bouts of severe cold, recent climatology argues in favor of it. During the 1981-2010 climate base period, there were 5 cases when the low temperature in New York City fell 2 or more standard deviations below normal on at least one day during the first half of January. The January 7, 2014 low temperature was 2.242 standard deviations below the January 1981-2010 average low temperature. The lowest temperatures on or after 1/25 for those cases were as follows: 1981: 8°, 2/5 1982: 9°, 1/27 1988: 9°, 2/7 1996: 5°, 2/5 2004: 7°, 1/25 While there is no assurance of another single-digit low temperature, it is probably very likely that there will be numerous days with low temperatures in the teens, probably 7 or more if those cases are representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 During this period between Days 10 thru 15 we may get close to some record breaking cold again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 For those wondering about whether this winter will see any additional bouts of severe cold, recent climatol During the 1981-2010 climate base period, there were 5 cases when the low temperature in New York City fell 2 or more standard deviations below normal on at least one day during the first half of January. The January 7, 2014 low temperature was 2.242 standard deviations below the January 1981-2010 average low temperature. The five cases were: The lowest temperatures on or after 1/25 for those cases were as follows: 1981: 8°, 2/5 1982: 9°, 1/27 1988: 9°, 2/7 1996: 5°, 2/5 2004: 7°, 1/25 While there is no assurance of another single-digit low temperature, it is probably very likely that there will be numerous days with low temperatures in the teens, probably 7 or more if those cases are representative. that's great information thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Biggest question is can we time this cold with east coast cyclogenesis at the right time? Its great to have cold available but with nothing to lock it in or time it correctly with an east coast storm in my opinion it is almost a waste of cold. Lets put the cards on the table sub freezing temps with sunny skies is lame without the chance of snow with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Biggest question is can we time this cold with east coast cyclogenesis at the right time? Its great to have cold available but with nothing to lock it in or time it correctly with an east coast storm in my opinion it is almost a waste of cold. Lets put the cards on the table sub freezing temps with sunny skies is lame without the chance of snow with it Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Biggest question is can we time this cold with east coast cyclogenesis at the right time? Its great to have cold available but with nothing to lock it in or time it correctly with an east coast storm in my opinion it is almost a waste of cold. Lets put the cards on the table sub freezing temps with sunny skies is lame without the chance of snow with it The good thing is...there is really no end in sight to the cold shots, as the -EPO seems poised to just reload one pulse after another. In my mind it isn't a matter of if we will cash in, just when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 The good thing is...there is really no end in sight to the cold shots, as the -EPO seems poised to just reload one pulse after another. In my mind it isn't a matter of if we will cash in, just when. I agree and many in this region wonder what would be if we had cooperation from the atlantic and pacific in tandem with the this -EPO. These past several weeks werent that far off from delivering some of the best winter weather stretches in our region in recent history. The transient blocking helped the new years week storm. I would just like a couple more legit shots at winter storms this season and i will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Biggest question is can we time this cold with east coast cyclogenesis at the right time? Its great to have cold available but with nothing to lock it in or time it correctly with an east coast storm in my opinion it is almost a waste of cold. Lets put the cards on the table sub freezing temps with sunny skies is lame without the chance of snow with it I said this 3 weeks ago bring the Cold and the snow will follow. Looks like this week we transition and step down. Next week looks better on the EC. Nothings a done deal but the pattern has been first we get cold then it snows. So patience is required but the next cold shot at day 10 mayb aimed here could rival the last cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I agree and many in this region wonder what would be if we had cooperation from the atlantic and pacific in tandem with the this -EPO. These past several weeks werent that far off from delivering some of the best winter weather stretches in our region in recent history. The transient blocking helped the new years week storm. I would just like a couple more legit shots at winter storms this season and i will be happy. Yep. Simply put, we would have another 95-96 winter. So far, I'm loving this winter. There's been something to track every 3-4 days. Even the 15/16th system was interesting for a few days. Now, we turn our attention to the 18th, then the 20th and so on. This is a fun winter so far. It's hard not to be excited about the end of Jan into Feb. All indices are moving into more favorable territory. We're getting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Anyway to stay just cold for an extended period of time, to go from zero to 50 or 60 in a few days hurts. Always, a warm front poised to head our way or a system cutting up to the lakes that takes a cold snap then torches us. What do we need for truly sustained cold like December, 1989 where I believe everyday it went below 32 degrees.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yep. Simply put, we would have another 95-96 winter. So far, I'm loving this winter. There's been something to track every 3-4 days. Even the 15/16th system was interesting for a few days. Now, we turn our attention to the 18th, then the 20th and so on. This is a fun winter so far. It's hard not to be excited about the end of Jan into Feb. All indices are moving into more favorable territory. We're getting something. Agreed the pattern may yeild a nice book end to this winter with the direction the teleconnectos are forecast to head. If im not mistaken wasnt there a KU in january/ february in the 2000's the almost immediately followed a warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Anyway to stay just cold for an extended period of time, to go from zero to 50 or 60 in a few days hurts. Always, a warm front poised to head our way or a system cutting up to the lakes that takes a cold snap then torches us. What do we need for truly sustained cold like December, 1989 where I believe everyday it went below 32 degrees.? As of now, there is no indication that we headed for a cutter pattern. A -NAO or -AO would help reinforce that though. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Can we see refreezing of the Hudson and the back bays get back to what it was or better, or that moment has lapsed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Can we see refreezing of the Hudson and the back bays get back to what it was or better, or that moment has lapsed? Could happen again, sure. But, we are dealing with longer days now, so it'll be harder. If the LR ens are right, we're going to see some serious cold later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Could happen again, sure. But, we are dealing with longer days now, so it'll be harder. If the LR ens are right, we're going to see some serious cold later this month. I really don't think that's an issue right now. I'm sure famous February cold snaps caused plenty of freezing over those areas. The long day theories are on par with the sun angle theories and both don't play a big role until late February and March. We're just getting into the coldest part of the season with regards to climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Todays Euro is almost through the roof exciting. This place will be hopping in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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