Yorkpa25 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Haha, well let's hope the confluence eases to allow another 50 mile north trend and then stops right there. Mid Atlantic is due. Especially DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Haha, well let's hope the confluence eases to allow another 50 mile north trend and then stops right there. Mid Atlantic is due. Especially DC area. Thanks brother, kind of unusual to get a storm in this progressive pattern. Hopefully the region will not need to worry about rain with this one and verbatim appears to be a suppressed or snow-type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'll take the 6z gfs any day for the 1/2-3 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'll take the 6z gfs any day for the 1/2-3 event No thanks. Snow starved DC needs some. I say that and I'm from york,pa. Hope this stays suppressed, a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Zero confluence on the 6z GFS it deepens the clipper east of AC bombs it as it moves towards cape cod there's 6 inch around NYC but a foot near Boston The Euro separates thes 2 takes the clipper through the flow on NYD then develops a miller A and runs into confluence around 40 N and heads it east so it's Best snow is DC to Cape May and we r dry . The GFS does have a 2nd feature at 192 ,( snow) but its a 2nd northern branch feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I have a gut feeling the 12Z 12/28/13 ECMWF will have a 6-12 inch snowstorm for the NYC and LI area with amounts near 1 foot on Eastern LI, as it shows a much better track and less confluence. Regarding 1/2-1/3 event. I think something like over 6 inches of snow will start showing up more as we get closer. Cape Hatteras to near 40/70 type track. Could this follow Nemo's 2/8/13 legacy last year ? The 6Z ensembles off the operational on the GFS are very positive for this to trend positive. My snowblower, gas, and stabilizer are ready. Ear plugs are ready to be worn. Snowblower is ready to take this on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Not sure I buy the suppression idea with a nuet NAO. The Euro s placement of the PV is the mechanism for the shunt , But with a SE ridge not sure if I believe a miller A is making a right hand turn at the mouth of the Delware bay. Good to see both global s with an EC system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Is there another system for next monday? Nyc forecast for thurs/fri is 40% snow..and next monday/tuesday ..frozen 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Is there another system for next monday? Nyc forecast for thurs/fri is 40% snow..and next monday/tuesday ..frozen 80% 80% 8 days out?..I don't believe that's a nws forecast. Plus they only go out 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 80% 8 days out?..I don't believe that's a nws forecast. Plus they only go out 7 days It's an accuweather forecast and I'll buy into it since it invokes the Howie travel rule as I'm supposed to be flying out on Monday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Which of these is more likely to be right? From todays 12z's 500mb heights: NAVGEM 12z on 1/3 525dm to 561dm in less than 30hrs. later, or GFS 12z on 1/3 505dm to 528dm in less than 30hrs. later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 VERY surprised more people are not talking about the cold coming to NYC friday - saturday. Lows look to dip below 15 degrees with windchills below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensembles are really juiced up for next Monday. 1012mb low south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Isn't next Mo day storm, rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Isn't next Mo day storm, rain? Completely up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Completely up in the air.You see the cold the euro has following that storm? Wow... gfs though is much quieter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Isn't next Mo day storm, rain? The arctic front behind the 1st storm is for real , with the EPO neg and the MJO heading towards 8 - 1- 2 as per Euro forecast .. there should be enough trough on the east coast so the storm doesn't cut . I think you will see storm 2 modeled further east as time goes on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The arctic front behind the 1st storm is for real , with the EPO neg and the MJO heading towards 8 - 1- 2 as per Euro forecast .. there should be enough trough on the east coast so the storm doesn't cut . I think you will see storm 2 modeled further east as time goes on . I hope so. One Boston local net has 46 and rain next Monday. I'd hate to have a winter with frequent snow events, but a snow cover that lasts only a few days. Hoping to build a solid and deep snowpack this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope so. One Boston local net has 46 and rain next Monday. I'd hate to have a winter with frequent snow events, but a snow cover that lasts only a few days. Hoping to build a solid and deep snowpack this month. Models show Rain today , he`s not wrong , I think the Model is wrong 7 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 many times a snowstorm was followed by a rain storm...If the first storm is big enough to withstand a rain event days later there might be a snow pack lasting more than a week...The News Year Day storm in 1971 was washed away the few days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope so. One Boston local net has 46 and rain next Monday. I'd hate to have a winter with frequent snow events, but a snow cover that lasts only a few days. Hoping to build a solid and deep snowpack this month. Then move to Minnesota or central/northern New England because climo just doesn't support a prolonged deep snow pack. Even the best winters often have a major thaw or warm up that eliminate the snow pack. You need a rare and perfect combination of teleconnections to build on the snow pack. Granted how long someone wants a snow pack is subjective. If you're talking up to a week, then I'll bite, but any longer then it's a struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Seem to be on the downward slide for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Tuesday cold shot looking much fiercer than Friday...-25C approaching the area at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How's that Monday storm looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How's that Monday storm looking? GFS cold rain Euro torch rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS cold rain Euro torch rain That sucks! Oh well. Hopefully there will be more storms brewing which can bring us more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS cold rain Euro torch rain Wind for monday? I'm flying out so was concerned about the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That sucks! Oh well. Hopefully there will be more storms brewing which can bring us more snow! It just frustrates me to no end when we have no problem receiving high QPF (>2") from rainstorms while we struggle to get a half-inch from snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And it frustrates me that most rainstorms easily verify ten days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the Euro is correct flooding will be a threat on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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