ace0927 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Glad I was born in 96 and had to experience great storms all the 00's, Blizzard of 2006 made me fall in love with weather I stayed up all night for that Anyway, without looking at models (volatile by the way) we know we have a -EPO for the whole winter, thats not going away, wildcard is the NAO, If the PV drops south it automatically raises heights in Greenland, but will it hold? And was the NAO like during 1993-1994? (need some help from veterans lol) nao was positive is 93-94. we wont see those temps again. and MOST of those storms were taint ridden - a ton of the 53" of "snow" was actually sleet....most, except the two in early feb changed to rain/sleet (and the second one did changeover even here to sleet)....that winter was a once in a lifetime experience. You guys should be thinking something from 1980-1992 and forget 82-83 and 86-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 the way I see it is the PV will over power the weak +anomolies in greenland and we turn +nao fairly quickly...rinse, wash, repeat. This winter will teach most here a huge lesson...be careful what you wish (cold air) for....welcome to winters 1980-1991 ( i respect the SNE forum very much but their 93-94 is off base) Considering KNYC is above every single December winter of the 80's in snow totals right now...wash, rinse, repeat sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Considering KNYC is above every single December winter of the 80's in snow totals right now...wash, rinse, repeat sounds good. right - guys were in for 1995-1996 or 2002-2003...that is ALL you guys want to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 right - guys were in for 1995-1996 or 2002-2003...that is ALL you guys want to hear Huh? You guys? What in the hell are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Considering KNYC is above every single December winter of the 80's in snow totals right now...wash, rinse, repeat sounds good. and 8 of those winters will be as cold or colder than Dec 2013 in KNYC...snow was a lucky circumstance this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 nao was positive is 93-94. we wont see those temps again. and MOST of those storms were taint ridden....most, except the two in early feb changed to rain (and the second one did changeover even here to sleet)....that winter was a once in a lifetime experience. You guys should be thinking something from 1980-1992 and forget 82-83 and 86-87. Which one of those 80's winters had a -EPO, positive NAO dominant pattern? 1993-94 and 2008-09 looks like the top analogs IMO, regardless we have the whole winter ahead of us and we should average above normal in the snow territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 and 8 of those winters will be as cold or colder than Dec 2013 in KNYC...snow was a lucky circumstance this year This December had wild swings, what other Dec had 70+ temps, above average in both snow and temp for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Huh? You guys? What in the hell are you talking about? I'd appreciate an answer to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 and 8 of those winters will be as cold or colder than Dec 2013 in KNYC...snow was a lucky circumstance this year Lucky ? You live on the coastal plain in the mid latitudes just about all snow here involves luck 77 78 , 93 94 , 95 96 , 09 10 All had warm periods. And cold and dry periods Think pp romanticize that 1 those winters r the norm and 2 they crushed it from start to finish They all had crud periods. Sorry back on topic. Jan disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This December had wild swings, what other Dec had 70+ temps, above average in both snow and temp for the month I wouldn't read too much into a couple of anomalously warm days in any month of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The post Christmas meltdowns are abnormally worse this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From December 1970 through December 1999...the mean December snowfall at Central Park was about 2 inches...we talk about the rather good streak of luck the area has been on the last 13 years or so...to average just 2 inches of snow for a winter month for thirty years at that location...despite all the things that generally work against snow in NYC...well, that to me is just amazingly bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From December 1970 through December 1999...the mean December snowfall at Central Park was about 2 inches...we talk about the rather good streak of luck the area has been on the last 13 years or so...to average just 2 inches of snow for a winter month for thirty years at that location...despite all the things that generally work against snow in NYC...well, that to me is just amazingly bad luck One rather creative writer on NE.weather newsgroup colorfully wrote that there "is an invisible roof over NYC that prevents it from snowing there". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From December 1970 through December 1999...the mean December snowfall at Central Park was about 2 inches...we talk about the rather good streak of luck the area has been on the last 13 years or so...to average just 2 inches of snow for a winter month for thirty years at that location...despite all the things that generally work against snow in NYC...well, that to me is just amazingly bad luck William think historically jan is typically our coldest month and feb is our snowiest month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 William think historically jan is typically our coldest month and feb is our snowiest month Yes of course...and to get 7 or 8 inches of snow in December around here is pretty decent all things considered...the point I was making is that for CPK to get just 60 inches of December snow over the course of 30 years took some pretty bad luck...when the December average prior to 1970 was about 6 inches for the previous 100 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 William think historically jan is typically our coldest month and feb is our snowiest month January has a way of not being all that snowy in the immediate NYC area...its notable for a lot of one to four inch events but big snowstorms are not too common overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 January has a way of not being all that snowy in the immediate NYC area...its notable for a lot of one to four inch events but big snowstorms are not too common overall. In the last 35 years I can only think of 4 January's that had major snowstorms in NYC...January 2011, January 2005, January 2004, & January 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 and 8 of those winters will be as cold or colder than Dec 2013 in KNYC...snow was a lucky circumstance this year Seven accumulating events here (totaling 9.3") It's hard to call something lucky instead of normal for a particular pattern when it occurs seven times in such a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Seven accumulating events here (totaling 9.3") It's hard to call something lucky instead of normal for a particular pattern when it occurs seven times in such a short period. But FR, you are located in what I have plausibly argued is the snow capital of the NYC / Long Island area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 But FR, you are located in what I have plausibly argued is the snow capital of the NYC / Long Island area... Though being the snowiest spot on Long Island is akin to being the warmest town in Siberia...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 In the last 35 years I can only think of 4 January's that had major snowstorms in NYC...January 2011, January 2005, January 2004, & January 1996. The image of that January 2000 snow event appears to be fading...no one talks about it anymore...I personally can't remember anything about it...though there may be other factors beyond its pure burgeoning obscurity that cloud my recollection...down in the District of Columbia though...it is a warmly cherished memory and frequently cited when there is numerical model consensus against the occurrence of a particular snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 But FR, you are located in what I have plausibly argued is the snow capital of the NYC / Long Island area... William, a couple of events ago I had a change to rain here quicker than in SW Nassau and Brooklyn. Anyway I think the pattern seems to be giving numerous nickel and dime events(or should I say penny and nickel) for all of us immediately around NYC. Next possible event up will be jan 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 90 hr threat should not be disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 William, a couple of events ago I had a change to rain here quicker than in SW Nassau and Brooklyn. Anyway I think the pattern seems to be giving numerous nickel and dime events(or should I say penny and nickel) for all of us immediately around NYC. Next possible event up will be jan 3/4. Must have been a fluke...northern Syosset is *very* snowy...in a relative sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 90 hr threat should not be disregarded. Even that GFS event after day 5 looks like more than 0.25 L.E....and with good ratios that would mean a quick 4 inches as it intensifies while moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Overall, I'd say that the chances of the NYC / Long Island area seeing at least 4 inches of snow during this December are fairly good. Overall, I'd say that the chances of the NYC / Long Island area seeing at least 10 inches of snow during this coming January are fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Need a jan 2 -3 threat thread. Euro has a very 2009 Mid Atlantic type Gradient look to it . DC Philly into SNJ type. The GFS hints at ths too in its 0z run But it's further N its best snows are around NYC but keeps NE dry. I will amend in its 500 MB look and evolution , not in its total QPF as of now But need a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Need a jan 2 -3 threat thread. Euro has a very 2009 Mid Atlantic type Gradient look to it . DC Philly into SNJ type. The GFS hints at ths too in its 0z run But it's further N its best snows are around NYC but keeps NE dry .5" qpf up to monmouth county on GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 .5" qpf up to monmouth county on GFS ensembles. 500 MB evolution come N then cuts it off and sends it east GFS to NYC. Euro to AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Numerical modeling tends to overdue confluence & these things always trend north over time...the chances of big snows over coastal VA & MD at the start of January is practically nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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