January Forecast Discussion

[REDMK6GLI]

The euro track for the 29 30 system hasn't deviated in 4 days. It's Hatteras to 100 miles east of AC to just E of Cape code. Go back to the 1st post on Tues and u will c the position is the same as today's 12z has it. Tremendous continuity from this model on ths storm the only difference is its precip shield us larger from Tues .

So I am hesitant to buy the other models it's not the 1st time it's the euro vs everyone else .

 

 

Once inside 5 Days it' been very good. So since the Jan 3 system is 7 Days out it gives us a few days to sort ths out

Fully expect the EURO and the GFS to some degree to have ALOT better handle by 0z sunday/6z/12z Monday the latest as to what this storm will do around Jan. 2nd/3rd. until then the model swings I fully expect to continue and urge everyone to control themselves and not issue weenie suicides for each model run

[NEG NAO]

Boxing Day 2010 the setup was Completely more favorable and not only that it was under 48 hours that ALL models finally saw the digging from northern branch would take place sooner causing the phase in time for a blizzard for us. That in my opinion was more of a complete model breakdown/fail than the rule that most big storms are followed by, suppression to N&W trend to.....you know the rest

I think it is very premature to be forecasting a suppressed solution for the Jan 2 - 4th storm potential - reason being the pattern and the models right now are so unstable and unreliable past a few days - the thing to watch is how strong the northern stream becomes and the placement of the arctic high as we approach the potential event 

[REDMK6GLI]

I think it is very premature to be forecasting a suppressed solution for the Jan 2 - 4th storm potential - reason being the pattern and the models right now are so unstable and unreliable past a few days - the thing to watch is how strong the northern stream becomes and the placement of the arctic high as we approach the potential event 

 

yes that is what we need to watch. also the EURO holding energy back is playing into its well known bias. we'll have a better idea once the weekend wraps up my friend

[PB GFI]

I would like to retrograde this pattern about 300 miles further west, then we'd be looking good. Heights are too high too far east in the Plains and it rushes the s/w out to sea. The 50/50 low is too far north and blocking over Greenland is mediocre. Really need to see some improvements at least in the ECMWF ensembles the next few runs.

Just took a look at the control run and its evolution bet 180 and 192 after the center develops off hatters it's gets to about 100 miles east of the BM

I don't think we need 300 miles. U are looking at a 100 mile difference to where it is 7 days out to where you want it be.

The euro has been better in the past in its 7 days its had some issues in the LR in ths pattern but its been pretty good inside 5

A couple days and we will see if we can get there.

[REDMK6GLI]

Just took a look at the control run and its evolution bet 180 and 192 after the center develops off hatters it's gets to about 100 miles east of the BM

I don't think we need 300 miles. U are looking at a 100 mile difference to where it is 7 days out to where you want it be.

The euro has been better in the past in its 7 days its had some issues in the LR in ths pattern but its been pretty good inside 5

A couple days and we will see if we can get there.

 

even if it is a benchmark miller A I doubt it would drop tons of snow as the pattern is too progressive. maybe im wrong but the pattern doesn't depict a slow moving miller A

[EasternLI]

gfs looks a little better

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It's simple. If the 18z GFS were verify as depicted at H5, it would be a MECS for the EC. The primary would transfer much quicker, and not barrel into strong confluence and the block. It's simple meteorology and the GFS, in particular, loves to do this.

[donsutherland1]

Disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS in the medium range:

 

For NYC:

12z ECMWF: 1/3 0z: 850 mb: -20.5°C; 2m: -11.0°C

18z GFS: 1/3 0z: 850 mb: +0.4°C; 2m : +4.3°C

 

ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles suggest that odds favor the ECMWF in this medium-range battle.

[REDMK6GLI]

It's simple. If the 18z GFS were verify as depicted at H5, it would be a MECS for the EC. The primary would transfer much quicker, and not barrel into strong confluence and the block. It's simple meteorology and the GFS, in particular, loves to do this.

 

its a shame a multi-million dollar model still cant find its ass with both hands whens it right there

[SnoSki14]

It's simple. If the 18z GFS were verify as depicted at H5, it would be a MECS for the EC. The primary would transfer much quicker, and not barrel into strong confluence and the block. It's simple meteorology and the GFS, in particular, loves to do this.

 

Idk about MECS but I agree about the confluence resulting either in a weaker primary further south or a faster transfer.

[+SNfreak21]

West based -NAO 

[IsentropicLift]

West based -NAO

if we're going to be picky, the western PNA ridge is a bit west of ideal. You'd prefer it to be centered near Idaho.

[REDMK6GLI]

if we're going to be picky, the western PNA ridge is a bit west of ideal. You'd prefer it to be centered near Idaho.

 

Yank, the setup isn't too bad and im gonna put myself out there    that this will trend our way. im not worried about it cutting into the confluence so OTS is really the only other option logically

[bluewave]

The Arctic high and the Canadian PV suppresses the low after the Wednesday clipper on the Euro ens to our SE next Friday.

 

[PB GFI]

In the longer range the EPO heads to between 3 and 5 SD below normal . The CFSV2 30 day locks the trough  off in over the East .

Which tele connects nicely with the trough progged  in Europe .  So if there is any kind of  ridge in the east in the next 15 days ,( at some point there will be )

 its just transient and shouldn't stay long . The trough has a good chance to dig back in .

Cold is never wire to wire , but when looking at some of the data we total it up Jan should  turn out OK .

[PB GFI]

The Arctic high and the huge SE Canada PV suppresses the second the low on the Euro ens to our SE next Friday.

 

MSLP_North32America_168.gif

Its D7 plus  has backed off a few times this year with the Southern side of the PV . Possible you see that again .

[bluewave]

Its D7 plus  has backed off a few times this year with the Southern side of the PV . Possible you see that again .

 

That PV is in a bad spot for us to get much more than fringed if the second storm can creep a little further north.

But maybe we can get some light snow with the WED clipper/Arctic front and again on FRI. That jet

is really hauling along the edge of the Arctic boundary.

 

[PB GFI]

That PV is in a bad spot for us to get much more than fringed if the second storm can creep a little further north.

But maybe we can get some light snow with the WED clipper/Arctic front and again on Friday.

And after that , the Euro Control run looks  busy on the East Coast  on the 6th - the 8th and the 10th . I don't look for 3 storms this to verify , but the model is starting to

see more  activity coming out of the southern branch as oppose to a clipper happy pattern . So thankfully it doesn't rotate the PV through full bore

or we whiff on stuff S and E

[bluewave]

And after that , the Euro Control run looks  busy on the East Coast  on the 6th - the 8th and the 10th . I don't look for 3 storms this to verify , but the model is starting to

see more  activity coming out of the southern branch as oppose to a clipper happy pattern . So thankfully it doesn't rotate the PV through full bore

or we whiff on stuff S and E

 

At day 10 it looks like the GEFS have their trough axis too far west maybe due to their different MJO evolution.

I always like to go with the Euro ensemble mean in the 6-10 day range.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

At day 10 it looks like the GEFS have their trough axis too far west maybe due to their different MJO evolution.

I always like to go with the Euro ensemble mean in the 6-10 day range.

 

 

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

The Euro wants to take it thru 8 1 2 A trough in Europe makes correlates nicely w a trough in the NE

Trough E of Hawaii argues for a ridge on the WC

I like the EPO forecast it really argues for sticking the ridge in Alaska

Don't Wana go past 10 days .

[Rjay]

Thanks. I also remember the 2 - 3" of rain that fell the day prior with 850's and surface isothermal at +1C. Just a hair colder could have delivered an area wide 40" to 50" snowfall as was seen in the Catskills.

I also remember while I was getting all that rain before the snow came for the rest of us that Suffern had 32" or so of wet snow. (I think)

I also remember the low swinging NW into Boston

[jm1220]

Boxing Day 2010 the setup was Completely more favorable and not only that it was under 48 hours that ALL models finally saw the digging from northern branch would take place sooner causing the phase in time for a blizzard for us. That in my opinion was more of a complete model breakdown/fail than the rule that most big storms are followed by, suppression to N&W trend to.....you know the rest

There was also record blocking in the perfect spot to force the phase and track close to the coast. Blocking causes the northern stream to dive south to get around it-this is what also caused the Perfect Storm evolution to Sandy by causing the northern stream strong disturbance to dive into the hurricane. The entire evolution of the 12/26/10 event was quite progressive, and there was actually a trough plowing through the West as that storm came up the coast. Without the block, it would have been a weak out to sea wave, and the trough would have been in and out within 2 days. You can't just rely on the models to get to the solution you want in the short term-if the overall pattern doesn't fit, the storm is much less likely to happen. That's why I keep saying to expect minor to perhaps moderate snow threats as long as we have this Nina-like pattern in place and no or little blocking near Greenland. Nina patterns favor New England and the Midwest much more, since storms can finally come together in time for New England (the clipper 2 weeks ago), and cutters favor the Midwest. The pattern coming up will be better as long as the expected blocking holds or better yet strengthens a little, and the pattern becomes a little less progressive.

[ace0927]

West based -NAO 

530DCM...LOL...at best that is a marginal -NAO to neutral NAO..that is not a block of any kind....the only thing holding that together is the 492DCM PV

[ace0927]

At day 10 it looks like the GEFS have their trough axis too far west maybe due to their different MJO evolution.

I always like to go with the Euro ensemble mean in the 6-10 day range.

 

 

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

the minute the SE ridge flexes on the bottom panel we will torch....sorry to say this but at this latitude this winter MIGHT very wel disappoint a lot people. This has the 1980's written all over it in permanent ink.

 

worse part about this crap is that we had a -nao all god damn summer with the damn t-storms and cool august

[PB GFI]

Clipper at 126 redevelops from the southeast thru the area.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

530DCM...LOL...at best that is a marginal -NAO to neutral NAO..that is not a block of any kind....the only thing holding that together is the 492DCM PV

That PV over Northern Canada is preventing the block from expanding westward. Also, we need that Ridge over the Eastern Pacific to push NE, so then it can interconnect with the Greenland Block and the PV can be shoved Southward (Cross Polar Flow). 

[PB GFI]

the minute the SE ridge flexes on the bottom panel we will torch....sorry to say this but at this latitude this winter MIGHT very wel disappoint a lot people. This has the 1980's written all over it in permanent ink.

worse part about this crap is that we had a -nao all god damn summer with the damn t-storms and cool august

The GFS is prob wrong trough east of Hawaii , ridge up through Alaska , trough in Europe , neg EPO all argue for a trough in the East

So much so it's own CFS V2 keeps the trough in the east in its 30 days.

We've had a pos NAO all dec. most of the area slightly below normal Dec with 10 inches of snow to date

That's on pace for an average winter . Can't expect more .

It's not the 80s I lived through them. Some of them were torched wire to wire.

[ace0927]

That PV over Northern Canada is preventing the block from expanding westward. Also, we need that Ridge over the Eastern Pacific to push NE, so then it can interconnect with the Greenland Block and the PV can be shoved Southward (Cross Polar Flow). 

the way I see it is the PV will over power the weak +anomolies in greenland and we turn +nao fairly quickly...rinse, wash, repeat. This winter will teach most here a huge lesson...be careful what you wish (cold air) for....welcome to winters 1980-1991 ( i respect the SNE forum very much but their 93-94 is off base)

[alwaysready126]

That PV over Northern Canada is preventing the block from expanding westward. Also, we need that Ridge over the Eastern Pacific to push NE, so then it can interconnect with the Greenland Block and the PV can be shoved Southward (Cross Polar Flow).

I'm not sure if physically it makes sense but the ridge does seem to be trending stronger and expanding to the NE. If you look at yesterday's runs you will see what I mean. Man if those areas of high pressure connected, that world result in some major blocking.

[+SNfreak21]

The GFS is prob wrong trough east of Hawaii , ridge up through Alaska , trough in Europe , neg EPO all argue for a trough in the East

So much so it's own CFS V2 keeps the trough in the east in its 30 days.

We've had a pos NAO all dec. most of the area slightly below normal Dec with 10 inches of snow to date

That's on pace for an average winter . Can't expect more .

It's not the 80s I lived through them. Some of them were torched wire to wire.

Glad I was born in 96 and had to experience great storms all the 00's, Blizzard of 2006 made me fall in love with weather I stayed up all night for that

 

Anyway, without looking at models (volatile by the way) we know we have a -EPO for the whole winter, thats not going away, wildcard is the NAO, If the PV drops south it automatically raises heights in Greenland, but will it hold? And was the NAO like during 1993-1994? (need some help from veterans lol)