bluewave Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The European text output which always verifies too warm shows -12.8C at the surface for 12Z on 1/2 which would be a low of 8, if we had that exact setup you'd probably see a low of 3-4 given the 850s of -21c It seems like NYC has just been unlucky in recent years with too much of a westerly flow behind our Arctic fronts. But it will be interesting to see if the Euro follows through as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The bigger story may turn out to be how the Euro is turning our winds more northerly behind the Arctic front with a stronger and further north high pressure cell. If -20c 850's verify with a N or NNW flow down the Hudson Valley, NYC could see its first reading below 10 degrees in a few years. It will be interesting to see if the Euro holds serve with the cold forecast. I agree. The ECMWF takes the temperature down to 9° in NYC, the lowest it has been there since 1/24/2011 (6°). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Miller A's are usually the ones that bring blockbuster events. Miller B's usually develop later and favor New England more. Not true. Mar 1960, Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1978 just to name a few.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Many Miller B's have produced large amounts of snow here. The Lindsay Storm 1969, 1978 blizzard, 1/22/05, and 12/30/00 are just a few examples. New England is the best place for them, but you really aren't shut out from them unless you are in the DC area and south. other than Jan 1996, I would say there is a BETTER chance of a switch to taint/rain in a Miller A. MiIler B's by definition have the mechanism to lock in cold air and keep the lows east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Where did this notion that I said Miller B's don't produce snow come from? I simply said that they favor New England more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 other than Jan 1996, I would say there is a BETTER chance of a switch to taint/rain in a Miller A. MiIler B's by definition have the mechanism to lock in cold air and keep the lows east of us. Miller B's are fine as long as they form further south and aren't fast moving. One of the big storms we had in Feb 2010 was a slow moving miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looking ahead, Even if the Euro suppresses the storm, it develops the -NAO at 240 hrs like the GFS i would say that is a neutral NAO and not a block by any stretch....that is 534DCM in greenland....slightly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Miller B's are fine as long as they form further south and aren't fast moving. One of the big storms we had in Feb 2010 was a slow moving miller B. Miller B's are much better for our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Not true. Mar 1960, Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1978 just to name a few.... think he meant because of having more moisture and cold air the Miller A's deliver bigger goods over miller B's which tend to deliver big totals to NE more often than not ( we do get some BIG miller B's ourselves too ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 there have been miller b's that screwed new england. dec 2000, presidents day 1979, and feb 10th 2010 come to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 there have been miller b's that screwed new england. dec 2000, presidents day 1979, and feb 10th 2010 come to mind wasn't February 2010 the storm that pounded mid atlantic and missed NYC/north? I believe some were saying if that storm would've turned the corner it would've given 96' a run for its money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 wasn't February 2010 the storm that pounded mid atlantic and missed NYC/north? I believe some were saying if that storm would've turned the corner it would've given 96' a run for its moneythat was feb 5th. i'm talking about the second big storm on the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 that was feb 5th. i'm talking about the second big storm on the 10th ah ok. well generally speaking I said the Miller A's deliver more widespread snows than a miller B does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 that was feb 5th. i'm talking about the second big storm on the 10th Wasn't it the 27th? Central Park 20.1" - Boston - 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Also, there are KU's that were classified as A/B hybrids as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Wasn't it the 27th? Central Park 20.1" - Boston - 1" of rain.that was a miller A imo but far from classic. the sfc low originated in the gulf/subtropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Also, there are KU's that were classified as A/B hybrids as well. things get gray especially when strong blocking is involved. it's more important to look at features than worry about classifying a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ah ok. well generally speaking I said the Miller A's deliver more widespread snows than a miller B does Miller B's are awesome, I've seen legit thundersnow 2 times here, both times were miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 that was a miller A imo but far from classic. the sfc low originated in the gulf/subtropics Thanks. I also remember the 2 - 3" of rain that fell the day prior with 850's and surface isothermal at +1C. Just a hair colder could have delivered an area wide 40" to 50" snowfall as was seen in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Below I've outlined / illustrated why the operational ECMWF displays a much different solution than the operational GFS, and why we'd like for the latter to be more correct. The key here is the handling of the PNA ridge - will it be more amplified and further west allowing for a less progressive downstream short wave or vice versa (PNA ridge flatter, further east)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ECMWF ensembles and control are more amplified than the operational w/ the wave but still fairly far SE of us for 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ECMWF ensembles and control are more amplified than the operational w/ the wave but still fairly far SE of us for 1/3. The 29-30th system was way OTS too and now it's expected to be just inland so I'm not concerned about suppression or an OTS track being shown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ECMWF ensembles and control are more amplified than the operational w/ the wave but still fairly far SE of us for 1/3. I would like to retrograde this pattern about 300 miles further west, then we'd be looking good. Heights are too high too far east in the Plains and it rushes the s/w out to sea. The 50/50 low is too far north and blocking over Greenland is mediocre. Really need to see some improvements at least in the ECMWF ensembles the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 HPC going with a suppressed system Jan 2 -3 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The euro track for the 29 30 system hasn't deviated in 4 days. It's Hatteras to 100 miles east of AC to just E of Cape code. Go back to the 1st post on Tues and u will c the position is the same as today's 12z has it. Tremendous continuity from this model on ths storm the only difference is its precip shield us larger from Tues . So I am hesitant to buy the other models it's not the 1st time it's the euro vs everyone else . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Thhe 12z Euro ensemble mean shows about .10-.25" qpf. for NYC SE, on Jan 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Once inside 5 Days it' been very good. So since the Jan 3 system is 7 Days out it gives us a few days to sort ths out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 need I remind everyone that our biggest storms were progged to go OTS a few days prior to the event only to trend N&W as time got closer, not saying this will happen this time as every pattern in different for each storm but its something to keep in mind. we have all the players that are not on the field yet either, lets see what transpires this weekend until we dismiss the threat or follow it till it brings us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 need I remind everyone that our biggest storms were progged to go OTS a few days prior to the event only to trend N&W as time got closer, not saying this will happen this time as every pattern in different for each storm but its something to keep in mind. we have all the players that are not on the field yet either, lets see what transpires this weekend until we dismiss the threat or follow it till it brings us snow you are correct - the most memorable one was the Boxing Day Blizzard 2010 - OTS forecasts a couple days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 you are correct - the most memorable one was the Boxing Day Blizzard 2010 - OTS forecasts a couple days prior Boxing Day 2010 the setup was Completely more favorable and not only that it was under 48 hours that ALL models finally saw the digging from northern branch would take place sooner causing the phase in time for a blizzard for us. That in my opinion was more of a complete model breakdown/fail than the rule that most big storms are followed by, suppression to N&W trend to.....you know the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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