NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Here is the 18Z Dec 30th GFS - how accurate was it for this week starting today ? Not even close -so with that said can't trust the GFS past day 5 IMO http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013123018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro was really interesting with the middle of the week storm. It just brushes the coast with snow. If it was a little more further west, this would have been something nice for the coast. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:37 AM, Snow88 said: Euro was really interesting with the middle of the week storm. It just brushes the coast with snow. If it was a little more further west, this would have been something nice for the coast. Plenty of time. Your talking about Friday? Low off the coast. Tues/Wed is another rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Very little room for amplification with this kicker bearing down on the mid level flow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 11:59 AM, Quakertown needs snow said: Your talking about Friday? Low off the coast. Tues/Wed is another rain storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 1:34 PM, earthlight said: Very little room for amplification with this kicker bearing down on the mid level flow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f144.gif Very fast flow coming up with a bunch of disturbances as the EPO is finally going positive for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said: Very fast flow coming up with a bunch of disturbances as the EPO is finally going positive for a while. epo.png We will probably go back to the pattern we had for much of December, with transient cold and warm shots and either weak systems or cutters that change us to rain or mix. The pattern is just too progressive to allow for anything to amplify in a good place for us without the NAO in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 2:03 PM, jm1220 said: We will probably go back to the pattern we had for much of December, with transient cold and warm shots and either weak systems or cutters that change us to rain or mix. The pattern is just too progressive to allow for anything to amplify in a good place for us without the NAO in our favor. It looks like we transition back to a clipper pattern after the series of storms over the next week as the PNA rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I see the fast flow argument , but im thinking a handoff is starting on the Atlantic side . As the PNA goes positive and the NAO is heading NEG, this should argue for more troughiness along the East coast starting next week. I think the above system has a chance not to escape . Looking at the mid week system I think when its at Hatteras this precip shield is bigger and could be closer to the coast . 1 Edit here , I just looked at the Control and it doesn't agree with me in regards to a miss , So either way not a big system here , but a bigger precip shield if the OP is right . Still like neg NAO idea . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 My thinking is this is a start and not a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 2:14 PM, PB GFI said: I see the fast flow argument , but im thinking a handoff is starting on the Atlantic side . As the PNA goes positive and the NAO is heading NEG, this should argue for more troughiness along the East coast starting next week. I think the above system has a chance not to escape . Looking at the mid week system I think when its at Hatteras this precip shield is bigger and could be closer to the coast . If the kicker is modeled too fast, then the storm could get closer. But I am not putting much stock in the model runs beyond a few days since they are struggling with the fast flow. Notice how even the Euro is coming up with different solutions from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 2:26 PM, bluewave said: If the kicker is modeled too fast, then the storm could get closer. But I am not putting much stock in the model runs beyond a few days since they are struggling with the fast flow. Notice how even the Euro is coming up with different solutions from run to run. I cant pull up the 500 MB map at 156 on the Euro , would like to see how sharp that looks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 2:45 PM, PB GFI said: I cant pull up the 500 MB map at 156 on the Euro , would like to see how sharp that looks . The day 5 storm has been shifting around with the details, so anything beyond that is a really low skill forecast at this point. These storms are coming through with very little spacing between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 3:06 PM, bluewave said: The day 5 storm has been shifting around with the details, so anything beyond that is a really low skill forecast at this point. These storms are coming through with very little spacing between them. That's Def the key here the 1st system is dragging the trough east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 3:15 PM, PB GFI said: That's Def the key here the 1st system is dragging the trough east The Euro has been coming up with a different solution for energy rounding the base of the trough each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The CFS weeklies, as shown on StormVista for the next 5 weeks, look hot enough to toast marshmellows around here. Maybe near normal around 1/28-2/03 that's it. Comments? Reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS is much further west on this run compared to the 6z run with the storm towards the end of the week. Low goes on top of NYC. 850's are cold but the surface isn't. A lot of time for this to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I-95 special DC to NYC 5-7", but a bit too far west. Nice trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:11 PM, CIK62 said: The CFS weeklies, as shown on StormVista for the next 5 weeks, look hot enough to toast marshmellows around here. Maybe near normal ar ound 1/28-2/03 that's it. Comments? Reliable? The GFS is warm in the long range. The Euro weeklies and the Japanese weeklies are not. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:20 PM, WintersGrasp said: I-95 special DC to NYC 5-7", but a bit too far west. Nice trends The bad part is there is really no cold air prior to the storm. We're in the 40s all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 5:11 PM, Plfdwxdude said: The bad part is there is really no cold air prior to the storm. We're in the 40s all week The surface is warm despite the 850's. Overall, this was a good trend compared to the other runs. H5 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:45 PM, PB GFI said: The GFS is warm in the long range. The Euro weeklies and the Japanese weeklies are not. We will see Looks like the GFS is all on it's own as the JMA holds the ridge over Western NOAM day 9-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z GGEM for late week storm Redevelops a little late for NYC. Hits eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Super excited about the very active pattern the next week or so. The snow this morning was a nice touch but I hold events like tomorrow closest to my heart. It's too bad that we remain in such a progressive pattern. We're never going to get anything major unless that changes. The 12z GFS op has virtually zero support from it's ensembles and we'll likely end up with a completely different solution run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Trough looks negative and the pattern is really amped up thanks to western ridging. I'm really liking the Day 5 threat though i could see a rain to snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Heard that the euro weeklies look great. Anyone can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 7:10 PM, Snow88 said: Heard that the euro weeklies look great. Anyone can confirm? It keeps the ridge over Western NOAM for the rest of the month. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/ecmwf-weekly-maps-14/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 7:18 PM, bluewave said: It keeps the ridge over Western NOAM for the rest of the month. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/ecmwf-weekly-maps-14/ Couple that with the Japanese weeklies and you hav to be happy. You point out earlier the Canadian is on board. As is the Korean. Only the GFS breaks the ridge down. So I like below normal if you average out the next 21 days once passed the 15 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 7:18 PM, bluewave said: It keeps the ridge over Western NOAM for the rest of the month. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/ecmwf-weekly-maps-14/ Good news for us but super bad news for the calli ski resorts that can't buy snow. Also a possible water crisis I'm general next summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 2-5" areawide from 126-140 hours on the Euro with that late-developing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.