January Forecast Discussion

[REDMK6GLI]

Heading into january looks like the NE corridor will be in for some bitter cold. -EPO looks to continue the theme of getting cold into the CONUS. Latest forecast models the past week have now been showing some more favorable PNA, AO and NAO to some degree. Storms look to be moving across the US as well and may be giving us in the northeast some snow snow threats as well, in the future but something to keep an eye on. One of the biggest keys as to if our storm track heading into the beginning of 2014 will be suppressed or not is the PV and far south it will setup in canada. Fun times and cold start to 2014 ahead. Discuss here folks

[KEITH L.I]

93-94 analog strikes again!

[NEG NAO]

The AO is going to be negative - the PNA positive and the jury is still out on the NAO - and of course the negative EPO is definite

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[SnoSki14]

The lack of a -NAO will prevent suppression despite a strong PV, things could be quite active.

[Storm At Sea]

Indices are looking ripe for early Jan.

[MJO812]

Indices are looking ripe for early Jan.

The GFS looks great in early January for a storm.

[tim]

Indices are looking ripe for early Jan.

...donald s. agrees..ensembles pretty much holding serve in the LR with

regard to +PNA.-AO,-EPO..lets hope as we get closer it still shows it.

[PB GFI]

Wow , thats some operational run . Once past ths weekend , its one after another .  Thats why 94 has been

brought up so much . It doesnt have to be as cold as 94 .

But this 2 week period looks cold and day 5 thru 15 looks GREAT . 

[forkyfork]

ewr got 60+" from 93/94 and had temps below 0. it's such an extreme to use for comparison

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

ewr got 60+" from 93/94 and had temps below 0. it's such an extreme to use for comparison

 

Your signature. 

[PB GFI]

ewr got 60+" from 93/94 and had temps below 0. it's such an extreme to use for comparison

93 - 94 was being used as far as gradient  pattern , that looks to be setting up   JAN 94 was  way colder  .

[Allsnow]

Euro has two snow threats to start the year and is bitterly cold for nye

[SnoSki14]

Euro has two snow threats to start the year and is bitterly cold for nye

 

If the indices are correct, then we'll likely see multiple storm threats pop up. However instead of looking far out, I have a feeling they'll show up, disappear, and come back within 3-4 days. That's how are snows so far came about. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

If the indices are correct, then we'll likely see multiple storm threats pop up. However instead of looking far out, I have a feeling they'll show up, disappear, and come back within 3-4 days. That's how are snows so far came about. 

This includes the 12/31 threat, which should not be written off just yet.

[PB GFI]

This is how we look to open Jan .

[REDMK6GLI]

This is how we look to open Jan .

WOW! The tongue of that is literally putting the tristate area right in its cross hairs. So we know we got the cold, question is can we get a nice storm to go with it? We'll know soon enough

[IsentropicLift]

WOW! The tongue of that is literally putting the tristate area right in its cross hairs. So we know we got the cold, question is can we get a nice storm to go with it? We'll know soon enough

The NAO remaining positive is the key, otherwise it's suppression city.

[jm1220]

WOW! The tongue of that is literally putting the tristate area right in its cross hairs. So we know we got the cold, question is can we get a nice storm to go with it? We'll know soon enough

To me that seems like a pattern where we can get some smaller threats but not a major threat. Any more substantial system that forms would pump the SE ridge too much. We may get lucky though with clippers, or if there is a more substantial system maybe we can keep cold air in place long enough for a few inches of snow before rain. But until we see blocking near Greenland, it will be very hard for us to get more than maybe a 2-4" or 3-5" storm.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

To me that seems like a pattern where we can get some smaller threats but not a major threat. Any more substantial system that forms would pump the SE ridge too much. We may get lucky though with clippers, or if there is a more substantial system maybe we can keep cold air in place long enough for a few inches of snow before rain. But until we see blocking near Greenland, it will be very hard for us to get more than maybe a 2-4" or 3-5" storm.

 

This is the kind of patterns that will turn small events into possibly larger events. Remember, '05 and '03 have dealt with similar teleconnections. A +NAO/-AO/Slightly +PNA/-EPO. 

[PB GFI]

Real big events are hard to come by  , so  the next best thing are potential 3 day apart systems that have

just enough cold air to work with . You snow and it stays and it doesn't melt 3 days after it falls .

 

This is not a  transient shot and its not in and out . That PV may be in Hudson bay and not the Great lakes but that's a good thing  ,  it doesn't migrate very much   . If we dropped the PV into the NORTHEAST  , you would just freeze and watch all your systems head thru the MA .

 

Everyone wants the blockbuster , but sometimes they come at the end of the pattern as the Vortex is  leaving the playing field , lets

hope that`s not until after we can lay some snow cover down and keep it first .

[Hailstorm]

Wow , thats some operational run . Once past ths weekend , its one after another .  Thats why 94 has been

brought up so much . It doesnt have to be as cold as 94 .

But this 2 week period looks cold and day 5 thru 15 looks GREAT . 

 

That sounds wonderful, but according to Upton's Day 7 (next Monday) forecast for NYC, it only gets down to 40 degrees for the high, which is right at normal. It's not even below normal at all. Why such the discrepancy?

[PB GFI]

That sounds wonderful, but according to Upton's Day 7 (next Monday) forecast for NYC, it only gets down to 40 degrees for the high, which is right at normal. It's not even below normal at all. Why such the discrepancy?

Think week 1 really is a transition week , which will prob turn out normal  , I think week 2 and 3 are below .

But I cant speak to the automated numbers , they maybe right for a few days . But the warmth is gone , its over  .

[NEG NAO]

That sounds wonderful, but according to Upton's Day 7 (next Monday) forecast for NYC, it only gets down to 40 degrees for the high, which is right at normal. It's not even below normal at all. Why such the discrepancy?

because Upton is always conservative with longer range outlooks if the models continue to show below avg temps in the coming days their forecast will begin to change

[Stormlover74]

because Upton is always conservative with longer range outlooks if the models continue to show bleow avg temps in the coming days their forecast will begin to change

It also doesn't necessarily mean we're below normal for 10 or 15 straight days. We tend to moderate for a couple days in between cold shots

[NEXtreme]

Met after met now mentioning 1994 as the list grows.

[toronto blizzard]

Met after met now mentioning 1994 as the list grows.

Like who?

[Superstorm93]

Impressive. 

 

The ECMWF Monthly forecast just came in and it looks absolutely brutal over much of the east with blasts of Arctic air invading the area through the first fifteen days of the month. By D12 (Jan 4th) 850mb temps crash to -25C in Pennsylvania, with the 0c line south of Lake Okeechobee. Awesome to see the signals aligning themselves for what could be one of the most interesting January's in years for the east. 

 

[alwaysready126]

Wow look at that trough. It looks perfectly tilted to my untrained eye. Any input?

[alwaysready126]

And also looks to be some cooperation out of the Atlantic if I'm Not mistaken.

[IsentropicLift]

And also looks to be some cooperation out of the Atlantic if I'm Not mistaken.

You would like to see the ridging over the Atlantic extend further north towards Greenland.