January 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for posting those, wxdude64, and it is time to start documenting what is sure to be a wild ride ahead ... so compare those to the following (confirmed and estimated where "e" appears) ...

 

Date ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

07 _______ --6.6 _ --9.0 _ --7.9 ___--16.2_--10.1_--8.6 ______ --6.6 _ +1.9  _ +0.7

08 _______--7.5 _--10.1 _ --8.7 ___--16.5_--10.3_--8.1 ______ --6.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.3

09 _______--6.8 _  --9.5 _ --8.2 ___--16.1_ --9.6 _--6.4 ______ --5.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.6

10 _______--6.3 _ --8.4  _ --7.5 ___--13.5_ --8.5 _--4.8 ______ --4.7 _ +1.2 _ +2.3

11 _______--4.7 _ --6.2  _ --5.3 ___--11.2_ --6.6 _--3.7 ______ --3.7 _ +1.2 _ +3.0

[Roger Smith]

Continued from above ...

 

Anomalies after 12 to 20 days for contest sites:

 

date ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

12 _______--3.6 _ --4.5 _ --3.5 ___--9.3_ --5.6 _--3.2 ______ --3.0 _ +1.2 _ +3.1

13 _______--2.5 _ --3.3 _ --2.3 ___--7.7_ --4.8 _--2.5 ______ --2.4 _ +1.2 _ +3.5

14 _______--1.5 _ --1.9 _ --0.8 ___--6.8_ --3.8 _--2.4 ______ --2.5 _ +1.2 _ +3.8

15 _______--0.8 _ --1.3 _ +0.1 ___--6.7_ --3.8 _--2.5 ______ --1.9 _ +1.4 _ +3.8

16 _______--0.7 _ --0.7 _ +0.5 ___--6.1_ --4.1 _--2.5 ______ --1.6 _ +1.6 _ +3.6

17 _______--0.4 _ --0.2 _ +1.1 ___--6.2_ --3.9 _--2.5 ______ --1.1 _ +1.8 _ +3.2

18 _______--0.6 _ --0.1 _ +1.5 ___--6.3_ --4.2 _--2.5 ______ --0.6 _ +1.9 _ +3.0

19 _______--0.4 _ --0.1 _ +1.6 ___--6.0_ --3.8 _--2.3 ______ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.8

 

[Roger Smith]

Heading into a very cold period of weather in the eastern and central regions, but staying mild in the west ... will post some provisional estimates of the final anomalies soon but they look to drop about 2 or 3 from these values in the classic and expanded divisions, and possibly staying close to steady out west.

 

Date _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

20 _______ +0.2 _ +0.2 _+1.7 _____--5.6_ --3.2 _--1.9 ____+0.6 _ +2.2 _ +2.7

21 _______ --0.1 _ --0.2 _+1.1 _____--6.2_ --3.3_ --2.0 ____+1.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.6

22  _______--1.1 _ --1.1 _+0.3 _____--6.7_ --3.9 _--2.1 ____+1.2 _ +2.7_ +2.6

23 _______--1.8 _ --1.8  _--0.3 _____--7.3_ --4.3 _--2.4 ____+0.5 _ +2.8_ +2.5

24 _______--2.5 _ --2.5  _--1.0 _____--7.5_ --5.0 _--3.1 ____+0.7 _ +2.9_ +2.5

25 _______--2.7 _ --2.8 _ --1.0 _____--7.4_ --5.4 _--3.3 ____+1.2 _ +3.2 _+2.4

26 _______--2.9 _ --3.0 _ --1.3 _____--7.3_ --5.1 _--3.1 ____+1.4 _ +3.2 _+2.2

27 _______--2.7 _ --2.9 _ --1.1 _____--8.0_ --4.8  _ --2.9 ___ +0.8 _ +3.4 _+2.1

 

Projected final anomalies from NWS forecasts: 

 

p31 ______ --4.2 _ --4.0 _ --2.8 ____ --9.2 _ --6.2 _ --4.0 ___ +1.6 _ +3.8 _ +2.3

 

changes made to BOS and ATL  both up 0.5 on 27th mostly due to brief "torch" 27th max, PHX up 0.5 ... provisional scoring table edit by 3 pm EST. This post to be resumed on 28th within the provisional scoring table post so check there for updates through to end of month.

[RodneyS]

Heading into a very cold period of weather in the eastern and central regions, but staying mild in the west ... will post some provisional estimates of the final anomalies soon but they look to drop about 2 or 3 from these values in the classic and expanded divisions, and possibly staying close to steady out west.

 

Date _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

20 _______ +0.2 _ +0.2 _+1.7 _____--5.6_ --3.2 _--1.9 ____+0.6 _ +2.2 _ +2.7

21 _______ --0.1 _ --0.2 _+1.1 _____--6.2_ --3.3_ --2.0 ____+1.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.6

22  _______--1.1 _ --1.1 _+0.3 _____--6.7_ --3.9 _--2.1 ____+1.2 _ +2.7_ +2.6

23 _______--1.8 _ --1.8  _--0.3 _____--7.3_ --4.3 _--2.4 ____+0.5 _ +2.8_ +2.5

 

Projected final anomalies from NWS forecasts:

 

p31 ______ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --3.5 ____ --9.0 _ --6.4 _ --4.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.8 _ +2.5

It looks as if you're going to rule the month, Roger, while some of us have dug a hole deeper than the height of the snow piled up in Tuckerman Ravine, NH. 

[Mallow]

It looks as if you're going to rule the month, Roger, while some of us have dug a hole deeper than the height of the snow piled up in Tuckerman Ravine, NH. 

Yep, Roger is killing it this month.

[Roger Smith]

Having this weather machine at the Fortress of Solitude here at the North Pole is really helping me quite a bit.

 

The countdown of daily anomalies continues by editing post 33. Meanwhile, I have assessed the damages in a table of provisional scores (below). These could change slightly for the main contest, and considerably for the optional "western" contest due to the volatility of DEN anomalies in this pattern.

 

The February contest is open for entries.

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for January

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ CL ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ EX ______ TOTALS

 

Confirmed anomalies ___ --3.8 _ --4.0 _ --1.6 __ ,, ___ --8.1 _ --6.3 _ --3.6 __ ,, ____

 

 

Roger Smith __________100 _100_40__ 240 ____ 95 _ 89 _ 92 __ 276 ______ 516

 

Tenman Johnson ______ 98 _ 94 _ 92 __ 284 ____ 15 _ 33 _ 42 ___ 90 _______ 374

 

metalicwx366 _________ 98 _ 98 _ 08 ___ 204 ____ 89 _ 00 _ 66 __ 155 ______ 359

 

Mallow _______________78 _ 78 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 31 _ 25 _ 46 ___102 ______ 340

 

Isotherm _____________ 70 _ 72 _ 74 __ 216 ____ 73 _ 00 _ 38 ___111 ______ 327

 

Tom _________________ 68 _ 84 _ 74 __ 226 ____ 57 _ 09 _ 24 ___ 90 ______ 316

 

OHweather ___________ 58 _ 50 _ 94 __ 202 ____ 69 _ 01 _ 42 ___112 ______ 314

 

hudsonvalley21 ________ 74 _ 76 _ 96 __ 246 ____ 20 _ 04 _ 36 ___ 60 ______ 306

 

blazess556 ____________ 54 _ 72 _ 70 __ 196 ____ 63 _ 00 _ 42 ___105 ______301

 

ksammut _____________ 46 _ 66 _ 84 __ 196 ____ 37 _ 04 _ 64 ___105 ______ 301

 

donsutherland.1 ________52 _ 70 _ 72 __ 194 ____ 59 _ 00 _ 46 ___105 ______ 299

 

Goobagooba __________ 54 _ 64 _ 70 __ 188 ____ 49 _ 00 _ 48 ___ 97 ______ 285

 

Midlo Snow Maker ______ 68 _ 62 _ 94 __ 224 ____ 30 _ 00 _ 38 ___ 68 ______ 292

 

Chicago Storm _________ 74 _ 80 _ 66 __ 220 ____ 59 _ 10 _ 38 ___107 __ 327

________ (--13%) ______ 64 _ 70 _ 57 __ 191 ____ 52 _ 09 _ 33 ___ 94 ______ 285

 

 

 

Consensus ____________ 52 _ 64 _ 86 __ 202 ____ 31 _ 00 _ 38 ___ 69 ______ 271

 

 

wxdude64 ____________ 46 _ 56 _ 90 __ 192 ____ 31 _ 00 _ 38 ___ 69 ______  261

 

H20Town_Wx _________ 50 _ 50 _100__ 200 ____ 12 _ 09 _ 34 ___ 55 ______ 255

 

weatherdude __________ 06 _ 28 _ 88__ 122 ____ 81 _ 00 _ 38 __ 119 ______ 241

 

Damage in Tolland______ 42 _ 58 _ 72 __ 172 ____ 39 _ 00 _ 20 ___ 59 ______ 231

 

bkviking ______________ 40 _ 40 _ 96 __ 176 ____ 28 _ 00 _ 26 ___ 54 ______ 230

 

UncleW ______________ 04 _ 06 _ 68 ___ 78 ____ 05 _ 00 _ 68 ___ 73 _______ 151

 

 

Normal _______________ 24 _ 20 _ 68 ___112 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 28 __ 28 _______ 140

 

 

Stebo ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 52 ___ 52 ____ 12 _ 00 _ 50 ___ 62 _______114

 

SD __________________ 04 _ 10 _ 68 ___ 82 ____ 15 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 23 _______105

 

cpick79 ______________ 14 _ 10 _ 68 ___ 92 ____ 10 _ 00 _ 12 ___ 22 _ 114

_______ (--23%) ______ 11 _ 08 _ 53 ___ 72 ____ 08 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 18 _______ 90

 

RodneyS _____________ 00 _ 00 _ 34 ___ 34 ____ 02 _ 00 _ 30 ___ 32 _______ 66

 

 

 

Final Scores for Optional western contest

 

____________________ DEN  _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL

 

Confirmed anomalies __ +0.4 _ +3.5 _ +2.3 _

 

Goobagooba __________ 98 __ 90 __ 74 ____ 262

Isotherm _____________ 76 __ 78 __ 92 ____ 246

Tom _________________ 80 __ 48 __ 98 ____ 226

donsutherland.1 ________78 __ 64 __ 78 ____ 220

blazess556 ____________82 __ 60 __ 74 ____ 216

Mallow _______________ 92 __ 68 __ 54 ____ 214

hudsonvalley21 ________ 88 __ 42 __ 74 ____ 204

Damage in Tolland _____ 70 __ 60 __ 74 ____ 204

 

Consensus ____________  96 __ 50 __ 56 ____ 202

 

Chicago Storm ________ 94 __ 60 __ 74 _ 228

_______ (--13%) ______ 83 __ 52 __ 64 ____ 199

wxdude64 ____________ 98 __ 44 __ 56 ____ 198

H20Town_Wx _________ 76 __ 58 __ 62 ____ 196

 

Normal _______________92 __ 30 __ 54 ____ 176

 

Roger Smith __________ 22 __ 64 __ 98 ____ 184

Midlo Snow Maker ______62 __ 64 __ 44 ____ 170

bkviking ______________72 __ 50 __ 42 ____ 164

metalicwx366 _________ 76 __ 54 __ 36 ____ 166

OHweather ___________ 48 __ 60 __ 50 ____ 158

cpick79 ______________ 88 __ 70 __ 28 _ 186

_________ (--23%) ____ 76 __ 54 __ 21 ____ 151

ksammut _____________ 96 __ 04 __ 28 ____ 128

Stebo ________________ 78 __ 06 __ 42 ____ 126

SD __________________ 52 __ 10 __ 34 _____ 96

RodneyS _____________ 56 __ 00 __ 10 _____ 66

weatherdude __________12 __ 08 __ 30 _____ 50

 

_________________________________________________________

 

An update on the seasonal snowfall forecast was posted in the DEC 2013 thread. IAH did not record any measurable snow but had two traces, so that contest continues.

[Mallow]

Given those provisional scores, in the total, I'd be in third place behind Roger (of course) and Isotherm. I'm happy with that.

[Roger Smith]

The final scores are now posted above in post 37.

 

I will skip over the totals and the expanded division scores and mention that Tenman Johnson had a very high score in the eastern division, congrats. The optional western contest generally produced some solid scoring and our consensus forecasts showed some skill,

 

These anomaly figures have been removed from that post and the final row contains the confirmed anomalies for the month.

 

Days _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ______ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

27 d _______ --2.7 _ --2.9 _ --1.1 _____--8.0 _ --4.8 _ --2.9 ___ +0.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.1

28 d ________-3.3 _ --3.4 _ --1.5 _____ --8.7 _ --5.3 _ --3.3 ___+0.2 _ +3.4 _ +2.2

29 d ________-3.7 _ --3.7 _ --1.7 _____ --8.8 _ --6.0 _ --3.8 ___+0.3 _ +3.4 _ +2.3

30 d ________-4.0 _ --4.0 _ --1.8 _____ --8.4 _ --6.4 _ --4.2 ___+0.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.3

31 d ________-3.8 _ --4.0 _ --1.6 _____ --8.1 _ --6.3 _ --3.6 ___+0.4 _ +3.5 _ +2.3

 

The February contest has just entered time penalty phase, but only at 12% as of 1:05 p.m.