IWXwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like 18z NAM came south some from the 12z run with the Jan 2 clipper. Still back in the northern plains at hour 84 but you can see the shift south from 12z hour 78 and 18z hour 84. Sucky pattern when we're extrapolating the 18z NAM for a 2-3" clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Sucky pattern when we're extrapolating the 18z NAM for a 2-3" clipper. pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Wow, DVN pretty bullish with LSRs in the new disco. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND THE MON-TUE CLIPPER TAKINGAIM MORE DIRECTLY ON THE AREA. ATTM...WITH TEMPS SO COLD...BELIEVETHE SNOW:LIQUID RADIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 1... TO 35 TO1...WHICH SHOULD YIELD A VERY FLUFFY 2 TO 5 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We'll see. I don't think the areas to receive are a lock at this point. Let the models figure out how far south the vortex is going to drop...then we can start honing in. You're still very much in play right now, IMO. i wouldn't punt at this stage but a more phased north solution is the prudent lean at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Wow, DVN pretty bullish with LSRs in the new disco. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND THE MON-TUE CLIPPER TAKING AIM MORE DIRECTLY ON THE AREA. ATTM...WITH TEMPS SO COLD...BELIEVE THE SNOW:LIQUID RADIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 1... TO 35 TO 1...WHICH SHOULD YIELD A VERY FLUFFY 2 TO 5 INCHES. first clipper should have some excellent ratios given the deep arctic airmass...problem is that all though numerous, they've all been pretty weak this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z GFS snowfall. Showing that LES nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 not a lot of agreement with the ensembles but some potential for a non-zzzzz event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEM would be excellent for S MI, Euro would just scrape us but bodes well for areas to our south..and GFS and its ensembles all over the place. The good news for all is that it looks to be some sort of active once we get through the first few days of dry bone chilling cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 not a lot of agreement with the ensembles but some potential for a non-zzzzz event. It seems the winter pattern has been established. Brutal Cold with a solid northwest flow clipper fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 not a lot of agreement with the ensembles but some potential for a non-zzzzz event. Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 0z NAM looks like it will be north of the 18z run with regards to Tues night into Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I will compromise the chi storm and Aleking final call. Probably the best approach for chi town folks going forward. Unless you want to ride the JMA(Geos) train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 NAM is stronger with the 2nd wave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 0z NAM looks like it will be north of the 18z run with regards to Tues night into Weds. It is, the polar vortex moves out of the way and allows for the system to dig some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Really an impressive run for eastern IA/southwest WI and into northern IL as the best snows are just moving into Chi metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Waiting for a sounding, but you can image ratios would be impressive with 2m temperatures like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like it's gonna be a nice period of quality snows for Chicago. Hopefully Alek successfully dodges traffic while measuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The 18z GFS seemed to back off on a snow threat for my region come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like it's gonna be a nice period of quality snows for Chicago. Hopefully Alek successfully dodges traffic while measuring. new years day...traffic should be light. nice run, pivot point action. it's going to trend south. might get some ok-ish LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 new years day...traffic should be light. nice run, pivot point action. it's going to trend south. might get some ok-ish LE. Haha It's not going to trend south. Tracks are laid. You look good for some fun. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like it's gonna be a nice period of quality snows for Chicago. Hopefully Alek successfully dodges traffic while measuring. Haha. --- Sounding just north of Cyclone at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Depth of the DGZ decreases with time as WAA increases but still a great run. DBQ, Clinton, or Cyclone will usually end the winner in these setups given they sit at the pivot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Haha It's not going to trend south. Tracks are laid. You look good for some fun. Enjoy. I'm feeling ok about where I sit...maybe a little too far north of ideal but some lake enhancement potential helping out. However run 2 run consistency not to mention model 2 model consistency has been weak. Also, clippers often tend to run south of guidance at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm feeling ok about where I sit...maybe a little too far north of ideal but some lake enhancement potential helping out. However run 2 run consistency not to mention model 2 model consistency has been weak. Also, clippers often tend to run south of guidance at this range. I don't know. Looks like I-80 and north is prime. Models always exaggerate the cold push south...and thus I see a more northern solution like the NAM and GGEM working well. Not sure I buy the clippers often run south. Think we're going to be on the outside looking up here. Plus, Hoosier said it wasn't going to snow in LAF until at least after Jan 15. Take it to the bank...I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 WTF Also, first you say south is the way to go, then you say a more phased north solution is a good bet. You are clearly just anti snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I meant Alek, darn phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 lol GFS coming a bit north, but weaker, with the New Year's deal. Next one should follow suit...being north that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GFS really hangs that piece of energy back, going to be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS is just radically different from its 12z run...for the Jan 1-2 impulse. Good hit for IA, S WI, N IL, N IN and S MI though. Also, I think it has continuous snows, of varying intensity, for Chicago for 30 hours through 102 hours...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Wow what a run for here. Monday night, Tuesday night and then the main feast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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