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December 21-23rd Winter Storm Part 4


Chicago Storm

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Saw this report on FB from stormchaser Brad Hruza.

 

I am a trained spotter. Just a quick question. Do you put out freezing rain warnings? Kane County needs to be under one if so. Its collecting fast and dangerous and I have already helped falling people. Its just getting worse. Thanks.

 

Yikes, unless the evening shift is thinking they'll see 1/4" accumulate in Kane, the going winter weather advisory covers the situation.

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Yikes, unless the evening shift is thinking they'll see 1/4" accumulate in Kane, the going winter weather advisory covers the situation.

 

Sleet is coming down at a good clip here, with a few mangled snowflakes.

By far the most frustrating storm to forecast I've ever been a part of since I started in the NWS in '09 lol. We got really concerned with the +3 warm layer and +4 layer just under 800 mb from RFD and ORD soundings after the forecast was sent out but clearly it's cooling pretty quickly.

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It's just a matter of time before we lose power. A whole night of freezing rain ahead of us and the power is already flickering.

I'm following #on storm on twitter (although I don't have a twitter account myself). Reports of power outages in the Don Mills area, power lines down on Highway 27 north of Major Mackenzie.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23onstorm&src=hash

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Up to 34 here now with plain -RA. Any light glaze that was on trees/bushes from earlier this evening has since melted.

 

This would have been more interesting with a NW wind, instead of the current NE wind off the lake.

 

 

If this system had a better low level cold air supply it could've been a bigger problem in the metro area.  But marginal + marine influence equals close but no cigar.  Also wonder if a month later would've made a difference...honestly not sure how cold the lake usually gets in mid-winter (I know shoreline areas can freeze over)

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Love to hear your take on the radar.

 

 

it's one of the goofier looking dual threat storms i've ever seen. The defo band looks pretty awesome but it's moving quick and detached from the WAA shield so I don't see anywhere downstream seeing much more than 10". The far W/NW suburbs should see a brief period of rip city once it swings through. May even see some showery convective snows as the southern edge scrapes the city.  Cool system but it's delivered some seriously boring weather.

 

EDIT: still 35

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If this system had a better low level cold air supply it could've been a bigger problem in the metro area.  But marginal + marine influence equals close but no cigar.  Also wonder if a month later would've made a difference...honestly not sure how cold the lake usually gets in mid-winter (I know shoreline areas can freeze over)

 

Lake Michigan is below normal on average and the area is still struggling to get to 32°. Just cold enough here to have icy conditions. Sleet is helping out in that department.

 

avgtemps-m_1992-2012.gif

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I've been surprised at how persistent the warmth has been right along the lake considering the flow is NE/NNE.

Me too, but previous RGEM runs hinted at rain hanging in longer along the lakeshore until 11 pm before changing to freezing rain. Some of the latest models show the heaviest freezing rain falling between 11 pm and 4 am.

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I think he mentioned something about Christmas dinner.

 

Ice is going to start to accumulate very efficiently in your area with those temps.

 

 

big picture radar looks bad for Toronto north

This could be our version of 1998 in Montreal/Ottawa/Kingston, albeit less severe. Don't want to hype things up out of proportion.

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Will be interesting to watch the dry slot next several hours. The RAP and even more the HRRR want to fill it in and make a run at northern IL. Not saying it will happen but these were the first two models to sniff out the north trend last weekend. And the HRRR snowfall map looks like the 12z Euro snowfall map FWIW.

RC and I have been talking about this and it's our last bit of optimism.

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it's one of the goofier looking dual threat storms i've ever seen. The defo band looks pretty awesome but it's moving quick and detached from the WAA shield so I don't see anywhere downstream seeing much more than 10". The far W/NW suburbs should see a brief period of rip city once it swings through. May even see some showery convective snows as the southern edge scrapes the city.  Cool system but it's delivered some seriously boring weather.

 

EDIT: still 35

Thanks. Tough storm to read.

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