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December 21-23rd Winter Storm Part 4


Chicago Storm

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Getting a mix of light sleet and light freezing rain again.  Might be predominately sleet now.

 

Here's a sounding for this area for 00z off the 23z RAP.  Illustrates why sleet is mixing in here quite nicely.  The BL cold layer is actually pretty thick, extending all the way up close to 850mb.  Just enough of a warm layer there to melt/partially melt the snow from above H8, and yet plenty of BL sub-freezing layer to refreeze much of the melted snowflakes.

 

EDIT:  I should point out that layer of warm air is thin enough if any kind of heavy precip moved through this area is should quickly switch to snow, at least as long as there's heavy precip.  Problem is nothing significant won't be moving in until around midnight, or later.

 

RAP_255_2013122123_F01_41.5000N_90.0000W

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RAP sounding here at 7pm.

The sleet falling here tells me the AOA freezing layer is pretty thin.

 

RAP_255_2013122123_F02_42.5000N_88.0000W

 

LOT, Romeoville.

 

 

600 PM:

***Important Update for this Evening- Please Share***

As precipitation continues to spread northward this evening, freezing rain is more likely to be the primary precipitation type for areas that are currently below freezing (see comment below this post for a graphic outlining the area). Recent aircraft soundings from aircraft flying out of Rockford and O'Hare feature a significant layer of warm air over 5,000 ft above the surface that will result in precipitation falling mainly as rain, though sleet will likely mix in at times closer to the Wisconsin border, as has been reported in northern Lake County.

With temperatures near or below freezing roughly west of a Waukegan to Pontiac line, this will be freezing rain and likely to result in ice accumulations on roads and sidewalks, especially those that are untreated. This includes the Rockford, DeKalb and Dixon areas. If your location is already a few degrees above freezing, it should remain so for the next several hours at least and prevent any icing problems.

The anticipated accumulating snow for north central & northwest Illinois and portions of far northeastern Illinois is now not expected to arrive until after midnight.

Use extra caution out driving or walking this evening and be prepared to encounter icy conditions on some roadways and sidewalks.

We would greatly appreciate reports of icing and sleet this evening if you are experiencing any in your area. Include your location and an estimated ice accumulation if possible.

 

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just seeing the 00z soundings for KBUF and KDTX. all i can say to the "ice is nice" crowd: this is going to be an extended concert by Robert Van Winkle, wishing it was more like the song "Informer" made by a native North York'er, Darrin Kenneth O'Brien. and the ones upstream in springfield MO and Lincoln, IL aren't much better looking.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13122200_OBS/BUF.gif

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13122200_OBS/DTX.gif

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13122200_OBS/ILX.gif

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13122200_OBS/SGF.gif

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The deformation band seems like it is gonna take longer than expected to get into Wisconsin, nothing much going on east of the Missouri River.  Although there definitely appear to be some convective elements with it in Kansas.  Would explain that heavy snow report in Great Bend, KS.

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