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December 21-23rd Winter Storm Part 4


Chicago Storm

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a little bit of freezing drizzle right now. Can see the moisture in the air really increasing. 

 

yeah...it was drizzling for the good part of an hour now here....the water had been running off of surfaces up until about 15 minutes ago...now it is beginning to freeze a little bit on elevated surfaces (tree branches, grill, etc.)  ... nothing on sidewalks, driveway, etc. yet

 

I guess it is the "shortest" day of the year...so daytime heating influence should have about peaked

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MCD 2100...

 

post-5865-0-47090300-1387653556_thumb.gi

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK...ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL/NERN MO...W-CNTRL
   IL

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

   VALID 211853Z - 212300Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR ARE
   LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM FAR NERN OK/ERN KS NEWD
   INTO NERN MO AND W-CNTRL IL.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL UPPER VORT LOBES ARE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...850 MB
   CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS ERN KS/WRN MO BY EVENING.
   WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INTENSIFY AS A RESULT...AND SUSTAIN
   MODERATE RAINFALL RATES FROM FAR NERN OK/ERN KS INTO CNTRL/NERN MO
   AND W-CNTRL IL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD
   STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S DUE TO WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS...WHICH
   WILL PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A 1-3 DEG C WARM
   LAYER CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. FREEZING RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
   TO SNOW OVER ERN KS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER MO/IL AS
   WARM NOSE PERSISTS AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW.
 

 

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NEXT CONCERN IS ICING POTENTIAL. FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE

NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF

A LINE FROM FROM WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW

FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE 32F LINE SHOULD CREEP A

LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

 TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON

COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S

DURING THE HEART OF THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY EFFICIENT

ACCRETION OF FREEZING RAIN TO ICE. ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS OF UP TO

1.5 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS AREA...ON TOP OF WHAT AS FALLEN. IF

THIS VERIFIES...IT WOULD PRODUCE A MAJOR ICE STORM IN THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT

WOULD LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

:arrowhead:

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One nice thing about living more north is missing out on most ice storms... that just sounds nasty.  Hopefully it doesn't materialize...going any extent of time without power in late December would not be fun.  Good reason to have a woodstove and flashlights.

I hear ya,hopefully it does not materialize or that would be a disaster for that area..

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