IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Over the next few days we'll be experiencing near record breaking high temperatures, particularly on Sunday. The 12z 4k NAM forecasted highs are in the mid to upper 60's for Northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island with lower 70's possible in Monmouth County. While the snowpack is no more than a few inches deep for most of northeastern NJ, (more NW, less SE) the snowpack is significantly deeper up in the higher terrain of western Passaic and Sussex counties where the headwaters for the Passaic river originate. The combination of warm temps and showery weather should cause whatever snowpack that does exist to make a rapid exit stage right, and this alone will lead to some rises on the areas streams and rivers. The Passaic River at Pinebrook is already forecasted to be near action stage by Monday morning. Today's 12z NAM is more pessimistic with rainfall potential. The GFS is mainly dry while the GGEM splits the two. Should the higher rainfall rates come to fruition, some flooding could be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 The 15z SREF's are juicier than 09z with 1"+ for most of the area and 0.75"+ from I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is 1.5"+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 18z NAM is 1.5"+ area wide. Strange at Mt Holly NWS is not really discussing any flooding concerns or really much rain. Just warm weather through Monday with some light rain at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Strange at Mt Holly NWS is not really discussing any flooding concerns or really much rain. Just warm weather through Monday with some light rain at times. They may be a little late to the party, as you can see the forecast for the Passaic river at Pinebrook is now for action stage to be reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 gfs gives us a quick 1.75+" of rain, there could definitely pockets of localized stream or roadway flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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