Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

[jamesnichols1989]

I don't see that. Winds are NW then veer north as the high moves overhead. Subsidence.

 

Darn, if we can just move that high into a place where less subsidence would occur and give us northerly winds that would be great, lol, not going to happen.

[N. OF PIKE]

Weenie wish cast

[mattb65]

Seems like a better chance for some squalls down where I am in north New Jersey for the holidays.

[SouthCoastMA]

Flurries for Trop Fold and King Weenie. Zilch for everyone else. maybe messenger sees a deck of clouds off to his east

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM and more so the GFS both have northerly winds at the surface tomorrow as the core of the cold air settles southeastward.  That's why delta Ts increase to 20C for tomorrow.  I think we can get some nasty weather out here tomorrow.

Agreed.

 

_{Brown, cracked, barren ground on Christmas is always nasty...}

[jamesnichols1989]

Shortwave will move over the region this afternoon after dumping some snow over BUF, it will bring some snow to NYC and BOS for some mood flakes and actually might flip the winds northerly as the arctic front along with the shortwave move offshore.

[jamesnichols1989]

Maine gets hit with another clipper system at hour 60.

[CoastalWx]

James, I think you are trying to hard. Eventually, you have to look at the data in front of your face.

[jamesnichols1989]

James, I think you are trying to hard. Eventually, you have to look at the data in front of your face.

 

WRT to what?  The clipper, or the system tonight into tomorrow?  I never really liked this period for anything other than mood flakes, I never saw an accumulating event.  Unfortunately I let the weenie side of me get in the way of wanting something, like a white Christmas, but unfortunately the data says unlikely.  I just want to give this forum life and excitement.  By the way January looks nice to start.  Also this clipper for the 27th looks like another Maine special.

[CoastalWx]

WRT to what?  The clipper, or the system tonight into tomorrow?  I never really liked this period for anything other than mood flakes, I never saw an accumulating event.  Unfortunately I let the weenie side of me get in the way of wanting something, like a white Christmas, but unfortunately the data says unlikely.  I just want to give this forum life and excitement.  By the way January looks nice to start.  Also this clipper for the 27th looks like another Maine special.

 

We all want excitement, but wishing something that will not happen isn't the way to do it. 

[jamesnichols1989]

We all want excitement, but wishing something that will not happen isn't the way to do it. 

 

You are right Scott, that's my bad.  I think we can still get flakes to fly as the arctic front moves through, but subsidence kills the OES threat tomorrow once we get northerly winds.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I think the dates haven't moved, but the "systems" have.  OES went flat...never liked the setup with the 8h winds not being favorable.  Now we hve a later xmas into post xmas clipper type system.

 

 

BTW I don't think it's a big deal to have pinned a thread when it was possible (small) OES could be a player and in reality a sizeable QPF producer is missing the Cape by about 25-35 miles today.  Once again though the GFS/NAM came a little too far west and slowly the Euro trudged that way.  But absent one of those GFS/NCEP runs going back to Boston we never had a real shot.

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS has a few flurries for the southern half of SNE later tonight

[jamesnichols1989]

14z RAP has OES developing around hour 18, or 08z tomorrow morning.

[N. OF PIKE]

Ya gfs or nam has "nyc's" mood flakes over ct/ri for a brief period tonite

I really hope mt tolland gets some light dusting

[Typhoon Tip]

The purpose of this thread originally was to bring a bit of attention to a synoptic-scale wave curling through the OV heading into tonight/tomorrow; as far as that goes, it has not evolved to be of any significance over the last 4 days.  

 

Fyi - there might be a period/burst of light snow on Boxing day, but that is unrelated to a new wave that has emerged in the fast overall flow translation since this thread began...  

 

The last several GFS cycles have sharpened up this feature, now having even a slight negative orientation with strong mid-level wind max cutting over or just under our latitude(s), centered on hour 60.   It's greatest currently modeled limitation is the lack of antecedent baroclinicity in the region from the OV to the upper MA, as the current best axis for that is being evacuated seaward; the ambiance won't have recovered in time (at least it doesn't appear that it could).  The 12z Euro also has a very energetic mid-level evolution with this same feature, and the RH fields of all products suggests some saturability of the column, so one would think with that much dynamics cutting over-head we'd get a pulse or too of UVM and at least some shredded banding.      

 

That all said,  Merry Christmas to the board!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro clips extreme E areas with some light precip.  Looks better up in Downeast ME.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

First Nichols death band forming over the cape right now

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Confirmation of flakeage by wellfleet. Josh ftw

[ORH_wxman]

Confirmation of flakeage by wellfleet. Josh ftw

 

 

Who's Josh?

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah northwesterly winds are producing ocean effect clouds and flurries over P-town through Wellfleet, MA.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Who's Josh?

Leon's brother from the cape.

[jamesnichols1989]

The band is becoming NNW to N instead of NW lately, the SREFs have had a good bit of percentages over the Cape at this time and have done well with this band over the Cape instead of out over the ocean like the NAM and GFS have had in the short term as well as most other short range guidance.  Although the probs were low around 30-40% for tonight into tomorrow afternoon.  Not heavy DBZ rates, but enough for snow showers.

[jamesnichols1989]

CHH should be favored to get some snow flurries and snow showers within the next hour or so.  The best Delta Ts don't occur until after 6z tomorrow.

[jamesnichols1989]

Sun is peaking out of the clouds here for a bit before the OE clouds move back in.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Some snow flying here

[Tropopause_Fold]

This little band will break apart shortly...but really well modeled by a bunch of the hi-res stuff

[CT Rain]

This little band will break apart shortly...but really well modeled by a bunch of the hi-res stuff

 

Hires models FTW. 

 

Also were hinting at this snow squall MCV moving through the Catskills. 

[jamesnichols1989]

NAM hiresolution model shows OES affecting us sometime in the mid morning through afternoon tomorrow as winds veer northerly.

[mattb65]

Snow squall in north NJ dropped a quick quarter inch. White Christmas here ftw!