Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

[jamesnichols1989]

Actually the latest RAP still has precip over the area at 18 hours and it cools the surface to below 32F with precip still falling tomorrow morning.  Also it still hasn't modeled the vorticity right over the MO region.  The shortwave in question is moving further southeastward than expected as well.  This allows the flow to kick SSW to NNE instead of SW to NE, front is slowly moving offshore though and low pressure will begin forming shortly along the boundary.  Water Vapor imagery suggests this precip shield is moving northwestward further than modeled.

[Chrisrotary12]

 

Am I missing something?

[jamesnichols1989]

 

Am I missing something?

 

I don't think so, I'm just as surprised.

[jamesnichols1989]

I think this frontal wave low pressure system will come further west than modeled given current water vapor imagery suggesting shortwave is actually over NE OK and SE KS instead of over IL?

[Damage In Tolland]

I think this frontal wave low pressure system will come further west than modeled given current water vapor imagery suggesting shortwave is actually over NE OK and SE KS instead of over IL?

1-3?

[jamesnichols1989]

1-3?

 

I don't know, more like a potential coating for like Cape Cod, MA and Islands.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Am I missing something?

Non euro guidance has been pulling this nw for most of the last 6-8 runs. It's really close but still a solid miss aside of maybe ack. I wonder what they're seeing that made them pull the trigger.

It wouldn't surprise me tonight to see the models come a tick or two west. But this is a fast moving wave there's a hard left extent and I think that map is well west of that extreme aside of the s/w snows.

The threat - minimal that it is, was from the last wave into Tuesday and Wednesday am. This map seems way overdone to me

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Messing myself up now...too much shopping. Look down by krax. If it were to hold together that's be the moisture that would potential clip the cape late tonight into the am. Not much of an east push evident yet.

Dual pol showing colder air aloft evident into almost central ma?

[jamesnichols1989]

Messing myself up now...too much shopping. Look down by krax. If it were to hold together that's be the moisture that would potential clip the cape late tonight into the am. Not much of an east push evident yet.

Dual pol showing colder air aloft evident into almost central ma?

 

 

00z NAM still not showing proper initialization of the shortwave in question.  Trough is still positively tilted, but becoming neutral as shortwave disturbance enters the bottom right part of the trough.  RAP is actually off as well being too fast with frontal wave and boundary moving eastward.  Moisture still streaming NNEward.

[N. OF PIKE]

Now radar craps the bed ...

[N. OF PIKE]

Good nite. I hope James wakes up w 1-2 " new so he has a white xmas, if anyone can score from this ...im all for it.... Ditto messenger/ phil/ bob

[SouthCoastMA]

It's sleeting here, moderately. hmm wonder if we can get a coating by morning.

[N. OF PIKE]

It's sleeting here, moderately. hmm wonder if we can get a coating by morning.

Awesome , whats ur temp

[SouthCoastMA]

38.5. It's mixing with rain still however. 925mb must be near/below freezing

[jamesnichols1989]

39F here still in Harwich, MA (the Outer Cape).  NWS forecasting 70% chance of snow for us today.

[jamesnichols1989]

They don't like our chance at seeing OES squalls given lack of instability and dry air present even when winds go northerly for a decent amount of time tomorrow.

[jamesnichols1989]

Also our storm out over the ocean may clip us with some heavy snow before the front actually moves finally offshore.

[CoastalWx]

Also our storm out over the ocean may clip us with some heavy snow before the front actually moves finally offshore.

 

Huh?

[CoastalWx]

Congrats NYC on C-1" tonight.

[jamesnichols1989]

Congrats NYC on C-1" tonight.

 

WHy is there a lack of instability with the OES tomorrow?  Dry air at 850mb?

[jamesnichols1989]

Huh?

 

I think the coastal rain will transition over to snow and it could be heavy if that batch of precip moves into the region.

[CoastalWx]

I think the coastal rain will transition over to snow and it could be heavy if that batch of precip moves into the region.

 

What storm?

[CoastalWx]

WHy is there a lack of instability with the OES tomorrow?  Dry air at 850mb?

 

NW winds.

[jamesnichols1989]

NW winds.

 

The NWS said that winds turn northerly tomorrow and there is a long fetch and delta Ts reach 20C, but there is lack of instability, I'm guessing they still think winds will be more NWrly.  That sucks.  The offshore low pressure system along the front is the storm I'm talking about.

[CoastalWx]

The NWS said that winds turn northerly tomorrow and there is a long fetch and delta Ts reach 20C, but there is lack of instability, I'm guessing they still think winds will be more NWrly.  That sucks.  The offshore low pressure system along the front is the storm I'm talking about.

 

Well there might be a brief band on the outer Cape later today or this evening, but more for Truro..etc.

 

I see no snow from that storm.

[jamesnichols1989]

WHy is the NWS bullish with 30% chance for snow tonight into tomorrow with a 60% chance of snow today?

[jamesnichols1989]

NAM and more so the GFS both have northerly winds at the surface tomorrow as the core of the cold air settles southeastward.  That's why delta Ts increase to 20C for tomorrow.  I think we can get some nasty weather out here tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

NAM and more so the GFS both have northerly winds at the surface tomorrow as the core of the cold air settles southeastward.  That's why delta Ts increase to 20C for tomorrow.  I think we can get some nasty weather out here tomorrow.

 

I don't see that. Winds are NW then veer north as the high moves overhead. Subsidence.

[Tropopause_Fold]

NAM and more so the GFS both have northerly winds at the surface tomorrow as the core of the cold air settles southeastward.  That's why delta Ts increase to 20C for tomorrow.  I think we can get some nasty weather out here tomorrow.

forecasting tip...wischcasting will get you nowhere. 

 

there will be some snow showers around from about exit 9 or 10 out on to the lower cape. i think it's a safe bet. but be happy to see flakes flying. if it's more than that, consider it a xmas miracle. 

[jamesnichols1989]

forecasting tip...wischcasting will get you nowhere. 

 

there will be some snow showers around from about exit 9 or 10 out on to the lower cape. i think it's a safe bet. but be happy to see flakes flying. if it's more than that, consider it a xmas miracle. 

 

Its not wish casting, I'm looking at the setup and I think things can happen, but maybe we don't see snow squalls, but we will see some snow showers.  I'm near exit 10