Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

[CoastalWx]

HPC thinks there is a 20-30% chance at snow of >1" for Cape Cod, MA sometime between 12z Tuesday and 12z Wednesday, also SREFs are beginning to like this period for snow, OES.

 

Maybe a snow shower.

[jamesnichols1989]

NAM is getting aggressive with the shortwave trough, cyclogenesis could spawn a surface low just offshore as trailing trough tilts neutral.  Also the baroclinic zone on the 12z NAM isn't too far offshore like previously.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Maybe a snow shower.

 

Meh, pretty good turn around in the models as we approach.  Seems likely SE and maybe E areas at least have precious mood flakes falling...with the potential increasing for more.

IMO

[CoastalWx]

Meh, pretty good turn around in the models as we approach.  Seems likely SE and maybe E areas at least have precious mood flakes falling...with the potential increasing for more.

IMO

 

I mean maybe some OES east of HYA? Doesn't seem much to me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I mean maybe some OES east of HYA? Doesn't seem much to me.

 

Need to see another run but the GFS I thought hinted at an accumulating OES type deal in PYM county and points east.  Delicate interaction and most of these have busted low but still yielded flakes.  There's no skill this year for these things inside of 24 hours....so we'll see if the Euro does its usual and comes west this run.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

New GGEM was meh...probably just NCEP stuff playing games again.

[jamesnichols1989]

Still an OES signal

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Still an OES signal

Attem looks like no more than some flurries or snow showers.

[CoastalWx]

Still an OES signal

Yeah for the Andrea Gale

[dendrite]

Yeah for the Andrea Gale

Gulf stream SHRA

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Problem is flow isn't aligned again for real oes. Not excited at all signal to me is very weak right now.

It will take a miracle from the offshore system to dust us up

[Tropopause_Fold]

we rip on King James...but i do think HYA points east stand a pretty good chance for some light OE snow showers starting sometime Tue and going into Xmas morning.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

we rip on King James...but i do think HYA points east stand a pretty good chance for some light OE snow showers starting sometime Tue and going into Xmas morning.

Will have to see how it develops the next few runs. The 18z to me both the nam and Gfs looked like an on land oes fail but they are likely to bounce the wind directions around.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Will have to see how it develops the next few runs. The 18z to me both the nam and Gfs looked like an on land oes fail but they are likely to bounce the wind directions around.

my guess is...there's flakes flying on parts of the cape. now...is that just a few flurries or a few actual snow showers/squalls...i don't really know. the flow, as you mention, isn't great...but there's enough N component in the lower 3K feet to get some stuff firing i think. euro has a decent signature with basically a saturated layer at 900mb, which i like to see. i mean were literally talking like weenie analysis here i think...this isn't the kind of set-up you want for a "real" OES but given it's xmas...i like it for a few flurries at least.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah its not looking like a real accumulating snow threat, more so just a few mood snow showers.

[Tropopause_Fold]

rpm has snow flurries/showers going thru most of Xmas day on the Cape.

[CoastalWx]

rpm has snow flurries/showers going thru most of Xmas day on the Cape.

Beware, it tends to go nuts with OES. Not saying it is wrong, but a bias I noticed.

[Tropopause_Fold]

rpm has snow flurries/showers going thru most of Xmas day on the Cape.

Beware, it tends to go nuts with OES. Not saying it is wrong, but a bias I noticed.

Yeah I've noticed that already. It's too generous with a lot of things lol. I don't expect that verbatim by any stretch.

[jamesnichols1989]

Models showing that the flow may back enough to NNW or N for a time Tuesday night into Christmas Day.  Multiple banded features expected as flow is somewhat sheared from 1000mb to 850mb.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Models showing that the flow may back enough to NNW or N for a time Tuesday night into Christmas Day.  Multiple banded features expected as flow is somewhat sheared from 1000mb to 850mb.

 

It'll be a chopped up mess like the morning that system exited here last week.  But it could produce a little dusting or coating here and there.  Like I said though it'll change in the days ahead models have not nailed one of these at this range yet.

[CoastalWx]

GFS giving King James a hope.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS giving King James a hope.

Need that wave to develop. Pretty close right now.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah not really interested any more, it will miss wayy to our southeast.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah not really interested any more, it will miss wayy to our southeast.

The ncep stuff still keeps it interesting but it's probably just window dressing ncep Charlie Brown routine

[Clinch Leatherwood]

RGEM shoved the precip from the last wave pretty far NW compared to the 0z run.  Measurable now into Boston and Providence overnight Tuesday.

 

One more little shift and the cape may get dusted up pretty good and at least mood flakes in parts of SNE.

[jamesnichols1989]

RGEM shoved the precip from the last wave pretty far NW compared to the 0z run.  Measurable now into Boston and Providence overnight Tuesday.

 

One more little shift and the cape may get dusted up pretty good and at least mood flakes in parts of SNE.

 

Even the NCEP models as of 12z don't like the storm possibilities and snow possibilities for us on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Thursday and Friday system is looking interesting if it stays cold enough.

[SouthCoastMA]

Even the NCEP models as of 12z don't like the storm possibilities and snow possibilities for us on Tuesday and Wednesday,

Whether we get a flake or not, that's not necessarily a bad thing, imo.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The chances are low, but I will say the 18z NCEP guidance came a good jump NW.  Not sure about the temps at ACK but there would be enough precip for a white xmas.   Not paying much attention but it is interesting to me that the creep NW continues. 

 

18z RGEM crept NW too now slicing the decent precip up over ACK.

 

Will have to see how it plays out, one more good shift and I still get nothing, but maybe it's more interesting for Phil.

 

(to be clear this is mainly the precip as it exits tonight lingering longer...and flipping)  Just looking at NCEP I could see it flipping to snow over the cape tonight for more than a few hours.  Be interesting to see how this progresses

[jamesnichols1989]

Its still in the low to mid 40s right now, temp has slowly dropped throughout the day.  18z models aren't that interesting but the 15z SREFs have come in juicier with regards to snow possibilities wednesday.

[N. OF PIKE]

Hope is better than nothing, at least this wont turn into a rain storm