Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL

Seems like we still have a chance to flip rain to snow

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL

TK mailing it in and not caring anymore FTL. 

[CoastalWx]

TK mailing it in and not caring anymore FTL. 

 

It's bothersome. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It's bothersome.

Did the euro ens totally lose the signal?

[jamesnichols1989]

NAM has numerous southern stream energetic disturbances involved in the overall long wave trough, while the northern stream shortwave trough enters the picture near hour 24-30.

[CoastalWx]

Did the euro ens totally lose the signal?

 

Yeah I don't see it. Brown it will be.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah I don't see it. Brown it will be.

 

Even if every model showed it occurring?  Right now it appears too warm even on the NAM.

[jamesnichols1989]

Cold air advection is lagging with this system given its strength.  Not too strong of a surface low impacting Northern New England with 12" of snow.

[CoastalWx]

Even if every model showed it occurring?  Right now it appears too warm even on the NAM.

 

Every model shows nothing for us.

[jamesnichols1989]

Even more phasing on the 12z NAM between the southern stream energy and the northern stream shortwave trough.  The northern stream digs more to the southeast than previous models.

[CoastalWx]

Even more phasing on the 12z NAM between the southern stream energy and the northern stream shortwave trough.  The northern stream digs more to the southeast than previous models.

 

Yay, more rain.

[jamesnichols1989]

Every model shows nothing for us.

 

Actually every model shows precip for the region, especially the South Coast of MA and RI especially and eastern MA.  I have no idea what you are looking at, but the models NAM, GFS, UKMET, CMC all show something, the EURO if any model doesn't show much of anything, but has been late to the course lately.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yay, more rain.

 

Rain is still something, it means we have a chance at something greater, better than no chance at all.

[CoastalWx]

Actually every model shows precip for the region, especially the South Coast of MA and RI especially and eastern MA.  I have no idea what you are looking at, but the models NAM, GFS, UKMET, CMC all show something, the EURO if any model doesn't show much of anything, but has been late to the course lately.

 

Dude, I'm talking snow. Who cares about rain. 

[CoastalWx]

Rain is still something, it means we have a chance at something greater, better than no chance at all.

 

[jamesnichols1989]

Dude, I'm talking snow. Who cares about rain. 

 

True, but the more precip we get and longer we have it, the better chance for a changeover to all snow in the end, a very juiced up front.

[CoastalWx]

True, but the more precip we get and longer we have it, the better chance for a changeover to all snow in the end, a very juiced up front.

 

The sharper the s/w, the more rain you get due to warmer air aloft. It ain't happening.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah if this is going to be rain keep it away lol

[jamesnichols1989]

NAM not as amped up as previous runs with the surface low.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah I agree the more amped up the worse off we get.

[jamesnichols1989]

12z GFS came in stronger with the surface low, still rain to light snow at the end though, winds are westerly at the surface for Tue PM and Wed morning.

[dendrite]

The sharper the s/w, the more rain you get due to warmer air aloft. It ain't happening.

You're not hoping and praying enough.

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott's trollic doom-sayer attitude is a dose of reality, though.  It may actually come down at a good clip, but it really doesn't appear that cooler thickness' will have advected in during the heavier activity (assuming the NAM is onto something... never a good idea beyond 48 hours).   It would pour for 4 to 6 hours, then flip to flurries as it is ending -- perhaps you see a single parachute.   

 

Not sure where this "TK" got a blizzard notion out of the 06z version.. ah, no -

 

NWS home page is an amazing display of impact advisories right now.  From Tor watches to ice-storm warnings, arcing from TX to ME.  

[jamesnichols1989]

Phil, GFS turns our winds NNWrly for a time after the frontal boundary moves eastward.  Question is how fast does the high move in and out of here afterwards?  Does it dry the column too fast and do we get a new system near hour 150+

[CoastalWx]

Move along.

[Bostonseminole]

Gfs is boring

[jamesnichols1989]

Flow aligns from westerly at 850mb to NNW or N at 84 hours and moves slowly to NNW around 90 hours, about a good 6 hours of OES possibility, a very small window in place to get something out of it, that high and flow just moves too fast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tip, just FYI, TK is Tim Kelley from New England Cable News

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Is this going into Christmas morning? If so I don't want rain that would suck

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS is maybe a coating on the Cape...then maybe some OE flurries/snow showers. not much. GGEM is maybe a slightly thicker coating.