Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah we just need the trough to amplify further east than currently modeled to allow the colder air to filter in faster.  Tough to get it here before the precip ends.

[jamesnichols1989]

I will be interested to see the flow the NAM produces at the surface for 84 hours through 96 hours when it gets in range.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I dont see anything there...lets move on post xmas.

[Tropopause_Fold]

one thing to watch - and the euro actually bit on it a little bit this run - is there's a ton of energy that has to pivot through behind the front and a lot of guidance has a weak inverted trough sweeping across the northeast. euro this run actually has some light precip with it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/21/2013 at 6:49 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

one thing to watch - and the euro actually bit on it a little bit this run - is there's a ton of energy that has to pivot through behind the front and a lot of guidance has a weak inverted trough sweeping across the northeast. euro this run actually has some light precip with it. 

What day?

[jamesnichols1989]

  On 12/21/2013 at 6:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What day?

 

Christmas Day, that would reinforce the northerly winds over the Bay and allow for good Ocean Effect Snows.  CMC actually brings the -20C 850mb temp line just off Cape.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2013 at 6:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What day?

 

Tuesday night, but that looks meh. At least nothing to get excited about in most spots, maybe a Cape coating.

[jamesnichols1989]

That is a very potent trough coming overhead over New England.  CMC says -20C 850mb temps over SNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

Jb and Phil make a good team

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi45m

ECMWF sees Christmas eve snow ( light) in parts of the northeast. Heckuva trough, lets see what its got pic.twitter.com/AjF7iv9ush

 

 

[dendrite]

  On 12/21/2013 at 7:36 PM, jamesnichols1989 said:

That is a very potent trough coming overhead over New England.  CMC says -20C 850mb temps over SNE.

Keep fighting the good fight.

 

JamesNichols ‏@89Nich 45m

@BigJoeBastardi heavy snows for Cape Cod, MA, northerly winds bring ocean enhancement

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Xmas looks like a legit threat to me.

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 12/21/2013 at 7:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Jb and Phil make a good team

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi45m

ECMWF sees Christmas eve snow ( light) in parts of the northeast. Heckuva trough, lets see what its got pic.twitter.com/AjF7iv9ush

 

 

 

 

 

no!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/21/2013 at 8:07 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

 

no!!!

PB and JB.

 

together 4eva

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2013 at 7:42 PM, dendrite said:

Keep fighting the good fight.

JamesNichols ‏@89Nich 45m

@BigJoeBastardi heavy snows for Cape Cod, MA, northerly winds bring ocean enhancement

[CoastalWx]

Phil teaming up with King James and JB.

[HoarfrostHubb]

@TollandKev: @ericfisher There isn't one person that wants this weather around the holidays. It's awful, pisses people off and has destroyed our snowpack

[jamesnichols1989]

  On 12/21/2013 at 8:13 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

@TollandKev: @ericfisher There isn't one person that wants this weather around the holidays. It's awful, pisses people off and has destroyed our snowpack

[jamesnichols1989]

  On 12/21/2013 at 7:55 PM, Winston Wolf said:

Xmas looks like a legit threat to me.

 

In what context?  The frontal wave or the inverted trough, or ocean effect snows?

[jamesnichols1989]

Its almost like the 18z NAM went bonkers over some intense PVA in a shortwave and brought the whole trough towards a negative tilt and closed an h5 low off over NNE.  I think if it trends southward with that vortex we might be in for a little more than a surprise, especially if that shortwave behaves and we get north, northeasterly flow going.  NAM has an inverted Christmas trough just like the EURO did.

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 12/21/2013 at 8:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

Phil teaming up with King James and JB.

My just isn't big enough for that

[jamesnichols1989]

  On 12/21/2013 at 9:09 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

My just isn't big enough for that

[jamesnichols1989]

Thoughts on an inverted trough for some Christmas fun?

[Bostonseminole]

  On 12/21/2013 at 8:13 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

@TollandKev: @ericfisher There isn't one person that wants this weather around the holidays. It's awful, pisses people off and has destroyed our snowpack

 

lol funny thing is, except for us freaks, most people were happy about the snow melting.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

  On 12/21/2013 at 9:12 PM, jamesnichols1989 said:

Thoughts on an inverted trough for some Christmas fun?

Most of the time the inverted troughs fade in favor for a real low.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 12/21/2013 at 9:12 PM, Bostonseminole said:

lol funny thing is, except for us freaks, most people were happy about the snow melting.

We don't like those people

Hopefully the Cape and coastal areas can grab a coating

[jamesnichols1989]

00z EURO is in favor of the troughing signal over SNE, inverted trough signal, and SREFs are increasing in favor of OES for Cape Cod, MA east of HYA.

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone with precip access..Did the Euro still have the inverted trough with light snow Xmas Eve?

[dendrite]

  On 12/22/2013 at 11:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone with precip access..Did the Euro still have the inverted trough with light snow Xmas Eve?

A few hundredths on LI. Maybe flurries to the S Coast?

[CoastalWx]

Move on

[jamesnichols1989]

HPC thinks there is a 20-30% chance at snow of >1" for Cape Cod, MA sometime between 12z Tuesday and 12z Wednesday, also SREFs are beginning to like this period for snow, OES.