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Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This may be lower priority (and it is lower confidence ... but there nonetheless) due to the icing thing up N,  and the snow pack assault preoccupying folks' attention, but the collective analysis is missing it.  


 


Also, even the warmest NAM solution have a slight inversion between the T1 and T2 in the FRH grid for Logan, signaling that the regardless of these machine derived 2-m products, the bottom of the boundary layer is going to be a little challenged, albeit still above normal.


 


But the chorus of complaint is too busy and is missing a sneaky signal.   After the more important wave passes through central NE later Sunday, we are not out of the woods for more activity.  It occurs to me that there is a significant L/W axis still well west of even the App cordillera, pressing through the Lakes.  Granted, it is not good that a 4-D Euro solution does nothing with it, but that is still precarious considering the baroclinic axis is still near-by/failed to evacuated off-shore.   In fact, the less reliable NAM has for 3 cycles now persistently expanded new column of precipitation back up the EC heading toward Xmass Eve.  


 


Cisco also picks up on this interesting set up:


 


RELIED ON THE 00Z/20 GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5 AND THE 00Z/20 ECENS MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE FLOW PATTERN AT THE MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--PARTICULARLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD--IS FAR FROM BEING SORTED OUT. HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT OCCURS OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 3 IS CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE EAST THROUGH DAY 4--AND PERHAPS INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


 


It's low confidence ...of course, but there is options for wintry activity still on the table post the warm snow-pack apocalypse through Sunday morning. Overall, despite thing not meeting with some desires, the is an active week ... volatility and changeable  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 12/20/2013 at 5:06 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

12z GGEM does again sort of clip the eastern half of the region with some snow. atmosphere cools just in time on that run. needle threader if this wave comes to fruition.

 

Ha!  You beat me too it .... I was just drawing some quick annotations to show plausibly how/why ... ah well, here it is anyway:

 

post-904-0-94098300-1387559446_thumb.jpg

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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  On 12/20/2013 at 6:24 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

looks somewhat similar to the GGEM. just barely gets the cold in here in time for some leftover precip...seems to get a little burst at the last minute as it's pulling away. *maybe* an inch or two for SE MA/Cape

Thanks. Even to get some flakes in the air would be a win I think

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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  On 12/20/2013 at 8:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Without seeing QPF, it would appear that the euro ensembles may have that signal. Highly highly caution these anafrontal deals.

at this point...hoping for a few flurries / snow showers tuesday. then maybe snag an OES "bonus" flurry tue PM/Wed AM 

 

low probability...but >0%. :lol:

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

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  On 12/20/2013 at 9:21 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't really mean to roll eyes but ...this 18z NAM run is turning a wind max at the bottom of the TV trough into a negative aspect and would extrapolate it as a right entrance right over the on-going coastal QPF it has.   

 

Could get interesting up this way if the NAM is right.

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