Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This may be lower priority (and it is lower confidence ... but there nonetheless) due to the icing thing up N, and the snow pack assault preoccupying folks' attention, but the collective analysis is missing it. Also, even the warmest NAM solution have a slight inversion between the T1 and T2 in the FRH grid for Logan, signaling that the regardless of these machine derived 2-m products, the bottom of the boundary layer is going to be a little challenged, albeit still above normal. But the chorus of complaint is too busy and is missing a sneaky signal. After the more important wave passes through central NE later Sunday, we are not out of the woods for more activity. It occurs to me that there is a significant L/W axis still well west of even the App cordillera, pressing through the Lakes. Granted, it is not good that a 4-D Euro solution does nothing with it, but that is still precarious considering the baroclinic axis is still near-by/failed to evacuated off-shore. In fact, the less reliable NAM has for 3 cycles now persistently expanded new column of precipitation back up the EC heading toward Xmass Eve. Cisco also picks up on this interesting set up: RELIED ON THE 00Z/20 GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5 AND THE 00Z/20 ECENS MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE FLOW PATTERN AT THE MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--PARTICULARLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD--IS FAR FROM BEING SORTED OUT. HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT OCCURS OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 3 IS CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE EAST THROUGH DAY 4--AND PERHAPS INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. It's low confidence ...of course, but there is options for wintry activity still on the table post the warm snow-pack apocalypse through Sunday morning. Overall, despite thing not meeting with some desires, the is an active week ... volatility and changeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z GGEM does again sort of clip the eastern half of the region with some snow. atmosphere cools just in time on that run. needle threader if this wave comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z GGEM does again sort of clip the eastern half of the region with some snow. atmosphere cools just in time on that run. needle threader if this wave comes to fruition. Ha! You beat me too it .... I was just drawing some quick annotations to show plausibly how/why ... ah well, here it is anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's the Euro showing for 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's the Euro showing for 12z? looks somewhat similar to the GGEM. just barely gets the cold in here in time for some leftover precip...seems to get a little burst at the last minute as it's pulling away. *maybe* an inch or two for SE MA/Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 looks somewhat similar to the GGEM. just barely gets the cold in here in time for some leftover precip...seems to get a little burst at the last minute as it's pulling away. *maybe* an inch or two for SE MA/Cape Thanks. Even to get some flakes in the air would be a win I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Does the EURO have the same Ocean Effect Snow signal as the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ens mean have the follow up wave and are they cold enough ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Without seeing QPF, it would appear that the euro ensembles may have that signal. Highly highly caution these anafrontal deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Without seeing QPF, it would appear that the euro ensembles may have that signal. Highly highly caution these anafrontal deals. at this point...hoping for a few flurries / snow showers tuesday. then maybe snag an OES "bonus" flurry tue PM/Wed AM low probability...but >0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 at this point...hoping for a few flurries / snow showers tuesday. then maybe snag an OES "bonus" flurry tue PM/Wed AM low probability...but >0%. GFS appears to have a more westerly component to the winds Tue PM/Wed AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS appears to have a more westerly component to the winds Tue PM/Wed AM. as modeled right now, i don't think wind direction is as much a concern as dry air and subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't really mean to roll eyes but ...this 18z NAM run is turning a wind max at the bottom of the TV trough into a negative aspect and would extrapolate it as a right entrance right over the on-going coastal QPF it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any more elaboration on ens support for region wide snows from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any more elaboration on ens support for region wide snows from this? ec ens have some light snows...emphasis on light. but there is some qpf and it would probably be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ec ens have some light snows...emphasis on light. but there is some qpf and it would probably be snow.Just out your way mostly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just out your way mostly? nope. back to your neck of the woods as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 nope. back to your neck of the woods as well.Is this the Monday wave or another one Tuesday nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't really mean to roll eyes but ...this 18z NAM run is turning a wind max at the bottom of the TV trough into a negative aspect and would extrapolate it as a right entrance right over the on-going coastal QPF it has. Could get interesting up this way if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Again its the NAM and at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 06z NAM tries to makes things interesting. Too bad its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GFS tries to as well, but is too late for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GFS may get a little wintry out here as the systems finally moves out. I wonder how much frozen qpf will melt in all the puddles on the ground after this torcherous, torrential melting. 36.3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Its a very thread the needle type of situation unfolding on the models for the Tuesday timeframe. Rain to snow is quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Tk on board Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan49m NAM trying to bring another Tuesday (blizzardish) Surprise to New England, hope for re-whitening Christmas Eve. Why not, we are on a roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Tk on board Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan49m NAM trying to bring another Tuesday (blizzardish) Surprise to New England, hope for re-whitening Christmas Eve. Why not, we are on a roll No confidence. But thoughts for GC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Meh ry Christmas from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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