RodneyS Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As many of you know, AccuWeather has been issuing 45-day city forecasts for several months now. So, I thought it would be interesting to track their Super Bowl forecast each morning through February 2nd, starting today, December 20th. The first number is the forecast maximum at Meadowlands Stadium for February 2nd, and the second number is the forecast minimum there for February 2nd. 12/20 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower 12/21 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower 12/22 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower 12/23 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower 12/24 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower 12/25 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 42/35, mostly cloudy) 12/26 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 33/21, partly sunny) 12/27 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 33/21, partly sunny) 12/28 Forecast: 36/18 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 31/21, partly sunny) 12/30 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 31/21, partly sunny) 12/31 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 31/21, partly sunny) 01/01 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 31/21, partly sunny) 01/02 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 41/34, mostly cloudy) 01/03 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 41/34, mostly cloudy) 01/04 Forecast: 37/20 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 33/23, sunny) 01/05 Forecast: 34/22 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 33/21, chance of snow shower) 01/06 Forecast: 34/22 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 33/21, chance of snow shower) 01/07 Forecast: 45/34 Cloudy and warmer (NYC: 45/33, cloudy and warmer) 01/08 Forecast: 45/34 Cloudy and warmer (NYC: 45/33, cloudy and warmer) 01/09 Forecast: 38/32 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 45/33, cloudy and warmer) 01/10 Forecast: 36/28 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 45/33, cloudy and warmer) 01/11 Forecast: 40/33 Rain and snow (NYC: 39/32, periods of snow and rain) 01/12 Forecast: 36/26 Snow showers possible (NYC: 39/32, periods of snow and rain) 01/13 Forecast: 35/25 Snow showers possible (NYC: 39/32, periods of snow and rain) 01/14 Forecast: 35/25 Snow showers possible (NYC: 39/32, periods of snow and rain) 01/15 Forecast: 35/25 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 41/31, cloudy and warmer) 01/16 Forecast: 35/25 Chance of snow shower (NYC: 41/31, cloudy and warmer) 01/17 Forecast: 32/22 Snow showers possible (NYC: 41/31, cloudy and warmer) 01/18 Forecast: 35/25 Snow showers possible, colder (NYC: 35/35, sun and clouds, colder) 01/19 Forecast: 37/25 Chance for rain and snow (NYC: 37/19, partly sunny) 01/20 Forecast: 37/25 Chance for rain and snow (NYC: 29/18, cloudy and cold) 01/21 Forecast: 44/38 Considerable cloudiness (NYC: 44/38, cloudy) 01/22 Forecast: 36/30 Snow showers possible (NYC: 47/36, sunny and warmer)01/23 Forecast: 36/24 Snow showers possible (NYC: 47/36, sunny and warmer) 01/24 Forecast: 36/24 Snow showers possible (NYC: 36/28, chance for snow shower) 01/25 Forecast: 36/24 Snow showers possible (NYC: 36/28, chance for snow shower) 01/26 Forecast: 36/32 Rain or snow showers possible (NYC: 35/32, rain or snow showers possible) 01/27 Forecast: 36/28 Mostly cloudy (NYC: 36/28, rather cloudy) 01/28 Forecast: 39/26 Rain or snow showers possible (NYC: 39/26, mostly cloudy) 01/29 Forecast: 39/26 Mostly cloudy (NYC: 39/26, mostly cloudy) 01/30 Forecast: 46/28 Shower possible (NYC: 46/28, chance of shower) 01/31 Forecast: 49/31 Chance of shower (NYC: 49/31, shower possible) 02/01 Forecast: 51/31 Shower in the afternoon (NYC: 51/31, shower in the afternoon) 02/02 Forecast: 51/32 Areas of morning fog (NYC: 51/33, clouds with breaks of sun) 02/02 Actual: 55/27, no precipitation (NYC: 56/39, no precipitation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 February 2nd records for NYC going back to 1869... Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation....snowfall.....est. max snow depth...59 in 1988.......9 in 1881.....42 in 1952......-3 in 1881.....2.98" in 1973.....5.0" in 1874..........17" in 201158 in 1973.....16 in 1971.....41 in 1970......-2 in 1961.....1.15" in 1999.....4.3" in 1985..........10" in 193458 in 1967.....18 in 1885.....40 in 1999.......2 in 1873.............................4.0" in 1895...........9" in 190557 in 1989.....20 in 1961.....40 in 1933.......5 in 1918.............................3.6" in 1955...........8" in 196656 in 1970.....22 in 1918.....40 in 1922.......6 in 1971.............................3.3" in 1916...........8" in 194856 in 1999.....22 in 1898.....39 in 1877.......7 in 1993.............................2.8" in 1966...........8" in 1961 56 in 2014.........................39 in 2014 only two days had over an inch of precipation...1973 and 1999 and those were warm rains...The biggest snowfall was 5" set in 1874...1961 had a max of 20...1971 was 16...1971 would be the worst scenario analog...1881 is before the UHI...snow depth could be a problem for parking...1966 had some light snow and temperatures near 30...That wouldn't be a bad outcome...There hasn't been a blizzard on this date since records began in 1869... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Sleety snow, about 6" on the ground from a previous storm, half an inch or so during the game, 33 F, west to northwest winds 20-30 mph. Not very different from Accu-wx although theirs probably just climo at this point. Mine is research model derived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Sleety snow, about 6" on the ground from a previous storm, half an inch or so during the game, 33 F, west to northwest winds 20-30 mph. Not very different from Accu-wx although theirs probably just climo at this point. Mine is research model derived. I am adding AccuWeather's forecast for New York City, as they seem to be holding constant their Super Bowl forecast for MetLife Stadium, which is fewer than 10 miles away. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'm personally hoping for a multi-day blizzard. Because the NFL might move the game a day for a catastrophic storm, but they can't move it an entire week w/o completely zooing up everything. Nice spread between the city and the stadium, must be a heck of a coastal front the AccuWx super-secret month long model is seeing. One would think the resolution and time involved, they must have a Cray hidden in State College and have a budget that would make most nation's militaries jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 They don't but I do -- as the monster blizzard of Jan 28 will prove beyond the shadow of a doubt. Scary eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 They don't but I do -- as the monster blizzard of Jan 28 will prove beyond the shadow of a doubt. Scary eh? Do tell. Do tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 They don't but I do -- as the monster blizzard of Jan 28 will prove beyond the shadow of a doubt. Scary eh? Just for laughs, Your storm is showing up for this date on 384 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Less than 4 days now from showing up on 16 day GFS and Euro ensembles, and early signs looks somewhat positive for colder than normal weather, Too far out to be wishing for a blizzard. Well, to have any confidence in wishing for a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Less than 4 days now from showing up on 16 day GFS and Euro ensembles, and early signs looks somewhat positive for colder than normal weather, Too far out to be wishing for a blizzard. Well, to have any confidence in wishing for a blizzard. AccuWeather now calling for above normal temperatures and just cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 AccuWeather now calling for above normal temperatures and just cloudy. Wow. The last two runs of the Euro sure have a different idea! Possible snowstorm late next week followed by more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Maybe they think Giants Stadium is in Omaha cuz of Peyton Manning calling it out so often? I don't see much support anywhere at this point for above normal temperatures, would say my very early call is not that far out but would now go a bit colder, so 26 F on a frozen field with slight snowfall potential after a couple of 2-4" events top up the current ambient foot of snow (most of which I presume will be transported out of the stadium long before then). Watch the period Jan 28-30 for a stronger coastal storm than anything on current maps. Whether it becomes a blizzard or just a HECS, it may really make things tough for the organizers in various ways, combined with ongoing severe cold (severe by NJ standards). They may even need to open the George Washington Bridge. By the way, what a bad year to schedule the game on the east coast, for two different reasons (weather and teams). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wow. The last two runs of the Euro sure have a different idea! Possible snowstorm late next week followed by more cold. This morning (January 22nd), AccuWeather forecasts an 11-degree disparity between the February 2nd maximums at MetLife Stadium (36) and New York City (47). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 AccuWeather now has a site dedicated to weather and the Super Bowl: http://willitsnow.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Personally, I'm hoping for 38 degrees, windy, and a cold,driving rain for the whole game - makes everyone unhappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z GFS had a nice band coming through right on time for kick-off. Wouldn't that be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Personally, I'm hoping for 38 degrees, windy, and a cold,driving rain for the whole game - makes everyone unhappy. So normal winter weather for the Seahawks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Congrats Farmers almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 (from post 3, Dec 20 2013) "Sleety snow, about 6" on the ground from a previous storm, half an inch or so during the game, 33 F, west to northwest winds 20-30 mph." ----- ------ Seems that overcast, light winds and 48-50 F would verify at the Meadowlands. It could be into the mid or lower 40s by end of the game as somewhat colder air lurks just to the north and west, but fronts are weak and slow-moving with the wave further west gaining strength. These predicted synoptics were verified to the north of the Super Bowl site and a half day earlier, similar conditions to what is currently being reported at St John NB. I'm relatively happy with the effort although it did not improve on climatology, at least it shows a fairly smalll timing and positional error in the sequence of highs and lows. My later update based on trends on the GFS were in the wrong direction which says more about the GFS than my methodology. OMAHA !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm personally hoping for a multi-day blizzard. Because the NFL might move the game a day for a catastrophic storm, but they can't move it an entire week w/o completely zooing up everything. Nice spread between the city and the stadium, must be a heck of a coastal front the AccuWx super-secret month long model is seeing. One would think the resolution and time involved, they must have a Cray hidden in State College and have a budget that would make most nation's militaries jealous. The Broncos probably wished there was a multi day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew-Northern Italy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What a game ! lot of followers here in Italy too, even at 2:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 February 2nd records for NYC going back to 1869... Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation....snowfall.....est. max snow depth... 59 in 1988.......9 in 1881.....42 in 1952......-3 in 1881.....2.98" in 1973.....5.0" in 1874..........17" in 2011 58 in 1973.....16 in 1971.....41 in 1970......-2 in 1961.....1.15" in 1999.....4.3" in 1985..........10" in 1934 58 in 1967.....18 in 1885.....40 in 1999.......2 in 1873.............................4.0" in 1895...........9" in 1905 57 in 1989.....20 in 1961.....40 in 1933.......5 in 1918.............................3.6" in 1955...........8" in 1966 56 in 1970.....22 in 1918.....40 in 1922.......6 in 1971.............................3.3" in 1916...........8" in 1948 56 in 1999.....22 in 1898.....39 in 1877.......7 in 1993.............................2.8" in 1966...........8" in 1961 56 in 2014.........................39 in 2014 only two days had over an inch of precipation...1973 and 1999 and those were warm rains...The biggest snowfall was 5" set in 1874...1961 had a max of 20...1971 was 16...1971 would be the worst scenario analog...1881 is before the UHI...snow depth could be a problem for parking...1966 had some light snow and temperatures near 30...That wouldn't be a bad outcome...There hasn't been a blizzard on this date since records began in 1869... yesterday was one of the warmest February 2nd on record in NYC...The super bowl dodged a bullitt yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 yesterday was one of the warmest February 2nd on record in NYC...The super bowl dodged a bullitt yesterday... Absolutely -- Roger Goodell must have made a pact with the weather gods. The last day prior to February 2nd that was warmer at MetLife Stadium was January 13th, and today there will likely be several inches of snow there. Regarding AccuWeather, even yesterday morning they underestimated how warm it would be. Still, a colder than normal February 2nd seemed like a reasonable guess, not only when they first began their 45-day forecast in late December, but even a week or so ago. I would grade them at about a C minus on their overall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Absolutely -- Roger Goodell must have made a pact with the weather gods. The last day prior to February 2nd that was warmer at MetLife Stadium was January 13th, and today there will likely be several inches of snow there. I just noticed that MetLife Stadium finally got back up to 55 on February 23rd (and it's also pretty obvious that high a temperature will not be reached again there for at least a week or so). So, if the Super Bowl had been held there on any other day between January 14th and February 22nd inclusive, the temperature would have been colder -- on most days, much colder, with a number of snowy days as well. Not bad timing, but it may lead Goodell to now think he can do this high wire act even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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