Chinook Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NW Ohio and NE Indiana could get 1 to 2" in just 6 hours. Now of course, if the NAM/SREF is off by a few miles, this could be closer to central OH. This concerns me a lot. That is a lot of rain even when the ground is unfrozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Not in this subforum but SPC has a moderate risk for the lower MS valley for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 30% area extended into far southern IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM Looks like it may big digging a bit more south to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looks like a thin line of convection trying to fire along the front NE of STL. There's actually some clearing ahead of it and some weak instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ILN siding with the GFS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH405 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013.SYNOPSIS...A WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE ACROSS THEREGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUSFOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDERCONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAYNIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...PCPN HAS BECOME VERY ISOLATED ATTM...WITH THE RADAR ONLY SHOWINGECHOS IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOPTHIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF PVA LIFTS NE UP THE OH VALLEY. THISWILL INCREASE THE VERTICAL VELOCITIES. AT LOWERLEVELS...CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLEQUICKER WITH THE SURGE OVER HEAVIER PCPN...NOW BRINGING IT INBETWEEN 06-12Z. THIS COINCIDES WITH AN INCREASE OF PW OVER 1INCH. PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY SE INDIANA INTO THE MIAMIVALLEY COULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH BY SUNRISE.TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN MEANDER OVERNIGHT. THE COOLEST WILLBE IN THE NW COUNTIES IN OH DOWN INTO THE WHITEWATER VALLEY WHERETHE MERCURY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE RESTOF THE FA WILL SE LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STRADDLED ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAP GULF MOISTURE PULLING PWOF OVER 1.5 INCHES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS OVER 300 PERCENT OFNORMAL AND NEAR SEASONAL MAX.MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN BAND WILLSET UP ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MIAMI VALLEYINTO THE UPPER SCIOTO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN AS LOWPRESSURE LIFTS N UP THE MS VALLEY THE FNT SHIFTS N A LITTLE TO MOREOF THE NRN MIAMI VALLEY BY 00Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCHAS IT IS NOW.THIS RUN IS SUGGESTING A LITTLE MORE OF SVR WEATHER POSSIBILITYSATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELSARE BRINGING A H8 JET OF 60-80KT INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUETO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY...SO IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP THERE ISTHE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. DID NOT MENTION IT IN THEZFP YET...BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO THIS AFTN.THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELPWHIP THE FNT AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THRU THE REGION. THERE ISA WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR POST FRONTAL PCPN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAYNIGHT...THE THE GFS BEING WETTEST AND THE NAM THE DRIEST. DIDNTWANT TO DIVERGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO LEANEDTOWARDS THE WETTER GFS. THICKNESSES DROP LOW ENUF SUNDAY NIGHTTHAT ANY PCPN WOULD FALL AS SNOW.HIGHS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE FA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITETHE HIGH RAIN CHANCES. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN KYINTO THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. ACROSS THE NRN MIAMI VALLEYHIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILLREMAIN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SE ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EARLY DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION.TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME STRONGWINDS GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAYBE OVER 30KTS. WILLHIGHLIGHT THIS GUSTINESS IN THE HWO ALSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z NAM not caving and sliding heaviest axis of rain further west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z NAM not caving and sliding heaviest axis of rain further west yet. 2.50" for LAF...3.61" for IND...3.82" for HUF...3.90" for BMG Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I went shopping in Indy and saw two peeps with convertible and the tops down. I shopped in a t-shirt. It was at or a just over 60 all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Considering the ponding and puddling already happening here, I really hope we don't get the 2+" here, especially if we get it in a short duration. Could be some major flooding that would occur here considering most of the metro Detroit area has snow cover still around. At my house alone I was sitting at 4" of waterlogged snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Considering the ponding and puddling already happening here, I really hope we don't get the 2+" here, especially if we get it in a short duration. Could be some major flooding that would occur here considering most of the metro Detroit area has snow cover still around. At my house alone I was sitting at 4" of waterlogged snow on the ground. Yeah my father lives along the Portage River here in NW Ohio, with 4" of rain on this frozen ground it is going to be an all out mess here. Hopefully he doesn't have too much flooding there, could be very comparable to January 2005, the only thing is these rivers are all completely frozen. Ice jams could really complicate things here Findlay needs to be on high alert as well, already predicted to hit major flood stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 2.50" for LAF...3.61" for IND...3.82" for HUF...3.90" for BMG Go big or go home. If that Indy amount pans out, it would break the 2 day record for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 would not be surprised at all to see the slight extended up to central OH.... At minimum, the likelihood of thunder here seems to be increasing. Good call Nostradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Adding thunderstorm potential to a heavy rain potential is just going to make things worse, I wouldn't be shocked to see some of the QPF totals being too low, especially if you get training of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Adding thunderstorm potential to a heavy rain potential is just going to make things worse, I wouldn't be shocked to see some of the QPF totals being too low, especially if you get training of the storms. Ya, couldn't agree more. the thunderstorms firing south are already starting and that heavy rain from them will ride north elevating qpf totals in areas that see them...keep in mind too if the heavy rain falls north into the river system, the effects will be felt farther down stream even with lower qpf totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 wow, pretty far up into Ohio with slight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The axis of heaviest rains also look to be along and south of I-70, at least right now. Score for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Heavy rains have already fallen overnight in SW IN. Bad feeling that we will be seeing many more of these totals as the day progresses. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN832 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0831 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E VINCENNES 38.68N 87.46W12/21/2013 M2.85 INCH KNOX IN CO-OP OBSERVERAMOUNT IS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Heavy rains have already fallen overnight in SW IN. Bad feeling that we will be seeing many more of these totals as the day progresses. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 832 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0831 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E VINCENNES 38.68N 87.46W 12/21/2013 M2.85 INCH KNOX IN CO-OP OBSERVER AMOUNT IS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION SW Indiana is going to just get hammered next week. Over a foot of snowmelt and local rains are going to have things bankfull or better and White, Wabash, and Ohio are going to bring in the coup de grace. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 From IND, several reports of water over roads in several places. This is what worries me most with this system. So much flooding potential and people already don't heed warnings on a normal day. With everyone traveling this weekend I hope they all take it seriously and turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 From IND, several reports of water over roads in several places. This is what worries me most with this system. So much flooding potential and people already don't heed warnings on a normal day. With everyone traveling this weekend I hope they all take it seriously and turn around. Checking also their radar precip estimates. Some areas are low by an inch possibly. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Taking a look at CIPS analog guidance, it shows severe wind reports into northern KY ending abruptly at the ohio river. (Typical??) I think the SPC might be pulling a CYA move with the slight risk so far north. That being said, its because an isolated higher wind gust will be possible tonight for the entire OV region. What it will come down to is the instability needed for stronger uodrafts and downdrafts to pull down the extreme wind aloft. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 December 20-21 rainfall totals for the Indiana airports, through 11:00 am EST today. EVV: 2.17" BMG: 2.15" GEZ: 2.13" IND: 1.90" HUF: 1.71" EYE: 1.54" MIE: 1.50" FWA: 0.79" LAF: 0.56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Taking a look at CIPS analog guidance, it shows severe wind reports into northern KY ending abruptly at the ohio river. (Typical??) I think the SPC might be pulling a CYA move with the slight risk so far north. That being said, its because an isolated higher wind gust will be possible tonight for the entire OV region. What it will come down to is the instability needed for stronger uodrafts and downdrafts to pull down the extreme wind aloft. Sent from my XT1060 Models show a pretty strong squall line moving into Ohio overnight, might not be a lot of instability but there is some up into Ohio. I think there call is pretty much a correct one at this junction. Plus with the wind fields in place it won't take much to bring down the winds that are just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Taking a look at CIPS analog guidance, it shows severe wind reports into northern KY ending abruptly at the ohio river. (Typical??) I think the SPC might be pulling a CYA move with the slight risk so far north. That being said, its because an isolated higher wind gust will be possible tonight for the entire OV region. What it will come down to is the instability needed for stronger uodrafts and downdrafts to pull down the extreme wind aloft. Sent from my XT1060 Models show a pretty strong squall line moving into Ohio overnight, might not be a lot of instability but there is some up into Ohio. I think there call is pretty much a correct one at this junction. Plus with the wind fields in place it won't take much to bring down the winds that are just off the surface. Exactly. It won't take a ton, but we do need some. I agree, if we get just enough then watch out...could be a bumpy evening. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just took a drive and wow at the runoff. When I left we had just an inch and a half of rain over a good 7 or 8 hour period and creeks and side ditches are all overflowing. Typical of what you would see after a 3 or 4 inch an hour summer storm. Sitting at 2 inches now and I would say we are halfway home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Evansville radar precip estimates. A large area of 3" + in Southern IL with much more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Beau Dodson reporting 4.06" at his house in Massac county. Meanwhile: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY1106 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1105 AM HEAVY RAIN WARE 37.45N 89.39W12/21/2013 M4.90 INCH UNION IL PUBLICPUBLIC REPORT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Beau Dodson reporting 4.06" at his house in Massac county. Meanwhile: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1106 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1105 AM HEAVY RAIN WARE 37.45N 89.39W 12/21/2013 M4.90 INCH UNION IL PUBLIC PUBLIC REPORT. STORM TOTAL SO FAR. Already?! Jesus some places might push 7-8" at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Already?! Jesus some places might push 7-8" at this rate. Yep, there's a lot more rain heading that way. That's a lot of rain, but unheard of in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.