Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM graphics... don't take this as Absolute Truth by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 0z GFS with 5-7" of rain for se IN into central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We can't get any agreement with QPF placement. What concerns me is how consistent the GFS has been with the precip shield not trending north. I've followed the more northern solutions since that has been the most popular among the models, but GFS has done well this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 0z GFS with 5-7" of rain for se IN into central OH. That's insane! I can't imagine if that verified! My call is 3.5 inches here....but the QPF possibilities seem to be endless with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 0z GFS...... the 6+ QPF extends from southern Indiana to Ohio just as snowlover stated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 just an FYI for those strictly sticking to this thread... NOUS42 KWNO 200344ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0343Z FRI DEC 20 201300Z GFS IS ON SCHEDULE..CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUSA REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT1200Z SAT DEC 21 2013 AND EXTEND THROUGH 2359Z SUN DEC 222013 DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE OHIOVALLEY..THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THISCWD...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL. NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSOPARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OFWEATHER DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That'll be interesting to follow thanks. I will also try and post pictures Sunday if flood waters rise to their potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Slight risk extended eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Already 55 in Indy. The snow isn't holding back temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For those of us in the immediate central Ohio area, the trend has been our friend...and unfortunately the enemy of those further nw. Looking more and more like a 2" or less event in the cmh area whereas Findlay, Toledo, down thru central and southern IN could get those 4"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 wow, 6z rgem really shows this....wonder if this is getting a last minute nw shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 wow, 6z rgem really shows this....wonder if this is getting a last minute nw shift Yeah I am thinking a NW trend is on the agenda today. All three model had a shift NW with the 6Z run. GEM was significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah I am thinking a NW trend is on the agenda today. All three model had a shift NW with the 6Z run. GEM was significant. my selfish side says I hope so, there's nothing intriguing to me, (even as a weather weenie), about 5" of rain. Although I wish the best for those further nw who might have to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Already 55 in Indy. The snow isn't holding back temps. Definitely not! Snow pretty much gone from MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Definitely not! Snow pretty much gone from MBY. yea, we hit close to 50 yesterday and I was shocked how fast the snowpack was destroyed. I had guys out working yesterday and I was also surprised that the ground really wasn't frozen, other than a little bit on the surface in areas. I assume our snowpack must have insulated it pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 my selfish side says I hope so, there's nothing intriguing to me, (even as a weather weenie), about 5" of rain. Although I wish the best for those further nw who might have to deal with that. I would not mind 5" of rain (I prefer it in summer with a major t-storm though). Of course I don't have to deal flooding as Detroit would have to be 300' deep in water for MBY to begin to think about flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah I am thinking a NW trend is on the agenda today. All three model had a shift NW with the 6Z run. GEM was significant. I think 12z today should pretty much solidify what's going to happen with this system. NW trend seems likely to me. Seems like the surge of warmth northward is already more impressive than originally expected. Forecasts from the last couple days had us not hitting the 50 mark until this afternoon and yet when I woke up it was 54 outside. I still think 60 plus is do-able, especially if that nw bump verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My qpf is still standing between 4.1 - 4.5 here according to noaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Slight risk extended eastward would not be surprised at all to see the slight extended up to central OH.... At minimum, the likelihood of thunder here seems to be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My qpf is still standing between 4.1 - 4.5 here according to noaa That's probably from 00z guidance. 6z has definitely bumped nw a bit. Will have to see if it's a hiccup or a legit trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 there was a question yesterday about what it means to have 90kt low level winds over you, (which was what the gfs was showing). Having those overhead ups the ante significantly if strong thunderstorms develop, which can cause mixing and bring those down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think 12z today should pretty much solidify what's going to happen with this system. NW trend seems likely to me. Seems like the surge of warmth northward is already more impressive than originally expected. Forecasts from the last couple days had us not hitting the 50 mark until this afternoon and yet when I woke up it was 54 outside. I still think 60 plus is do-able, especially if that nw bump verifies. Considering last Saturdays system inched northward too. I think NW trend is likely too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Considering last Saturdays system inched northward too. I think NW trend is likely too! my experience following winterstorms over the last 15 or so years on the models..... last minute nw trends are forecasts..... last minute se trends are wishcasts. granted there have been a few exceptions, maybe this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That's probably from 00z guidance. 6z has definitely bumped nw a bit. Will have to see if it's a hiccup or a legit trend. I really hope so, I really need my back yard to dry out. Since we've had snow cover since before thanksgiving, I still need to finish up the leaf removal in my back yard! The front was done, but not the back. Gotta get it done before we get more snow cover again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 From IND discussion: INTERESTING FACT FOR IND...IN DECEMBER THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IS 3.17 INCHES. WE COULD SEE 2/3RDS OR MORE OF THAT ON FRI NIGHT-SAT-SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For those of us in the immediate central Ohio area, the trend has been our friend...and unfortunately the enemy of those further nw. Looking more and more like a 2" or less event in the cmh area whereas Findlay, Toledo, down thru central and southern IN could get those 4"+ amounts. The model with the best QPF verification scores says you're getting 2.00"+. It's been fairly consistent with that theme. I'd probably plan on something close to that. But heaviest should be just to your NW...Toledo fair game for heavy totals. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42059-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-3/?p=2564528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The model with the best QPF verification scores says you're getting 2.00"+. It's been fairly consistent with that theme. I'd probably plan on something close to that. But heaviest should be just to your NW...Toledo fair game for heavy totals. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42059-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-3/?p=2564528 we'll see. I'm going barely under 2".... 1.85" when all said in done for cmh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Humbug. Lots of low lying flood potential areas here. Last spring a quick deluge placed about 50% of a city underwater. Guess I won't plan on going home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NWS Wilmington was one of the last to issue watches, which I thought was very late. It ticks me off that everyone plays flood threats down until their cities are under water. If we warned floods like we do for things like tornadoes, maybe floods wouldn't be at the top list of killers They've been mentioning the Flood Threat in their HWO since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Still a big difference GFS to everything else on QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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