Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 General thread for non-winter aspects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Could be some severe threat with this. Unclear if there will be enough instability to support it but the wind fields are certainly insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Our agency Public Information Officer was on the Weather Channel this morning to discuss the flooding possibility. Keeping an eye out on it but its more of a wait and see type of situation for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Flood watches out from Oklahoma to Buffalo. Guessing OH offices are waiting a bit to issue them but no doubt they will be hoisted soon. SEMI possibly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Guess this is relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Our agency Public Information Officer was on the Weather Channel this morning to discuss the flooding possibility. Keeping an eye out on it but its more of a wait and see type of situation for us. You could be quite busy, especially in Central And Southern IN if those QPF maps come close to verifying. I know that our area is going to send close an inch of liquid equivalent snow melt down the Wabash before the heavy rains get going. It might be a good thing that the heavy rain didn't begin during the snow release or there would surely be some flash flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 You could be quite busy, especially in Central And Southern IN if those QPF maps come close to verifying. I know that our area is going to send close an inch of liquid equivalent snow melt down the Wabash before the heavy rains get going. It might be a good thing that the heavy rain didn't begin during the snow release or there would surely be some flash flooding concerns. That's our concern too. Its not something we want to necessarily want anyone to deal with right before Christmas. Local EMAs are going to be busy regardless. I am sure within the next 24 hours or so we will hear about some activation talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 pretty big differences with the 12z gfs= 4.05" nam=1.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 pretty big differences with the 12z gfs= 4.05" nam=1.38" I'm not bitin' on this morning's NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The devil is in the details. Which ever QPF verifies will determine how wide spread the flood conditions will be. Worst case scenario is the GFS with a QPF of around 5 inches plus another inch in snow melt. That would turn my house into a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The devil is in the details. Which ever QPF verifies will determine how wide spread the flood conditions will be. Worst case scenario is the GFS with a QPF of around 5 inches plus another inch in snow melt. That would turn my house into a boat. do you live near a river or lowlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 do you live near a river or lowlands? Yes sir. Along the mad river prior to entering into the Miami river. It's a floodplain that tends to leave me stranded for up to a couple days in situations like this. I'll post pictures if it gets bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yes sir. Along the mad river prior to entering into the Miami river. It's a floodplain that tends to leave me stranded for up to a couple days in situations like this. I'll post pictures if it gets bad... I don't think the state's seen a situation like this in decades, actually. Maybe January 1959? January 2005 was very rainy and there was a lot of flooding, but it did not come all together over the course of a few days. Even then, I remember the Scioto reaching heights of 2nd or 3rd highest historical crests from Columbus down to the Ohio. They had to close the Franklinton floodwalls for that one. But a good 3"-5" rain over the course of 2 days over a widespread area of the state, especially with frozen grounds and snowcover (no snowcover and unfrozen ground in 2005)... that happened in 1959. That was the worst statewide flood since 1913. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yes sir. Along the mad river prior to entering into the Miami river. It's a floodplain that tends to leave me stranded for up to a couple days in situations like this. I'll post pictures if it gets bad... sorry to hear that, hopefully the models are overdoing the precip.....sounds like you have a lot preparations ahead.. Goodluck to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 18z NAM...man in the boat overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ya hopefully models are overdoing everything... Just have a gut feeling this could get bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ya hopefully models are overdoing everything... Just have a gut feeling this could get bad Unfortunately it's probably legit. You just don't get this kind of LLJ/moisture transport very often at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ILN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND OHIO... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN INDIANA...DEARBORN... FAYETTE IN...FRANKLIN IN...OHIO...RIPLEY...SWITZERLAND...UNION IN AND WAYNE. IN KENTUCKY...BOONE...BRACKEN...CAMPBELL... CARROLL...GALLATIN...GRANT...KENTON...MASON...OWEN...PENDLETON AND ROBERTSON. IN OHIO...ADAMS...AUGLAIZE...BROWN...BUTLER... CHAMPAIGN...CLARK...CLERMONT...CLINTON...DARKE...DELAWARE... FAIRFIELD...FAYETTE OH...FRANKLIN OH...GREENE...HAMILTON... HARDIN...HIGHLAND...HOCKING...LICKING...LOGAN...MADISON... MERCER...MIAMI...MONTGOMERY...PICKAWAY...PIKE...PREBLE... ROSS...SHELBY...UNION OH AND WARREN.* FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RECENT MELTING OF SNOW HAS ELEVATED STREAMS SLIGHTLY AND WILL HELP INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING SATURDAY.* IMPACTS MAY INCLUDE FLOODED ROADS AS WELL AS WELL AS STREAMS AND RIVERS EXCEEDING BANK FULL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Gfs has been getting a bad rap from snow lovers this whole storm but I have to say it has been incredibly consistent on qpf for this region the last 4 days. And I second the concern for frozen ground. Flood inundation maps don't take in to account frozen ground and how that affects runoff flows... Hence a high level of uncertainty of how this event will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At least this isn't a severe weather event this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Insane swath of flood watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Models still aren't agreeing with the areas of heaviest QPF. Nam has it around Indy while the GFS takes it up through Cincy to Columbus... hopefully the next few model runs come into more agreement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it's safe to say Findlay is going to be underwater from this. Really though the snowpack is huge here, ground completely frozen, rivers full of ice, what even 3" would do is devastating. I think this may be more remembered for the epic flooding event honestly, maybe not 1913 or 1957 level, but still it should be significant like what was seen around here in '07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it's safe to say Findlay is going to be underwater from this. Really though the snowpack is huge here, ground completely frozen, rivers full of ice, what even 3" would do is devastating. I think this may be more remembered for the epic flooding event honestly, maybe not 1913 or 1957 level, but still it should be significant like what was seen around here in '07 Agree! The snowpack all the way from Michigan south will affect areas even further south that do not necessarily even have snow on the ground because of the increase water load from rivers to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it's safe to say Findlay is going to be underwater from this. Really though the snowpack is huge here, ground completely frozen, rivers full of ice, what even 3" would do is devastating. I think this may be more remembered for the epic flooding event honestly, maybe not 1913 or 1957 level, but still it should be significant like what was seen around here in '07 I remember that flooding event, driving through Findley seeing the flooding along side I-75, really incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 not much 'noise' in the local media about the flood threat. Instead the local mets are gleefully talking up the coming warmth. I think there are going to be some unpleasantly surprised people living in flood prone areas. Because flood watches are hoisted so often in thunderstorm months, and often don't become warnings, I think there is a lot of complacency about all of this. If the nam is right, we'll be spared here in central OH, outside of heavy rain. If the gfs is right...holy sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 not much 'noise' in the local media about the flood threat. Instead the local mets are gleefully talking up the coming warmth. I think there are going to be some unpleasantly surprised people living in flood prone areas. Because flood watches are hoisted so often in thunderstorm months, and often don't become warnings, I think there is a lot of complacency about all of this. If the nam is right, we'll be spared here in central OH, outside of heavy rain. If the gfs is right...holy sh*t NWS Wilmington was one of the last to issue watches, which I thought was very late. It ticks me off that everyone plays flood threats down until their cities are under water. If we warned floods like we do for things like tornadoes, maybe floods wouldn't be at the top list of killers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think the placement of the heavy precip on the NAM is off. I'm throwing it to the side for now... I think it's off 75 miles west or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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