DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 This is like "March Madness" in December .... Need the southern trend to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 WxBell snow maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 This is like "March Madness" in December .... Need another 275 mile shift south to be back in the good snow. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 About as useful for forecasting as this euro close up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As far as I remember a couple of days ago when EURO was showing these type of snow amounts for 5 straight runs, not one person here mentioned that there is something wrong with the maps, or complaining, and now of sudden everyone is against the WXBELL maps...Hm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As far as I remember a couple of days ago when EURO was showing these type of snow amounts for 5 straight runs, not one person here mentioned that there is something wrong with the maps, or complaining, and now of sudden everyone is against the WXBELL maps...Hm ok it's been explained to you 1000 times. Stop playing stupid (unless you're not playing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As far as I remember a couple of days ago when EURO was showing these type of snow amounts for 5 straight runs, not one person here mentioned that there is something wrong with the maps, or complaining, and now of sudden everyone is against the WXBELL maps...Hm ok Considering it shows 4-5" of snow for O'Hare when the text output shows both 850s and surface temps above freezing for all but the last couple hundredths of an inch of precip, I think that tells you all you need to know about its lack of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 gfs will be slower maybe hair south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 gfs will be slower maybe hair south wetter, sfc low a tad slow and a tad weaker at 66hr. Snow swatch still best DVN-RFD-MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS barely gets rain into SEMI except for the southeastern 3 counties, almost all ice for most of Metro Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I've never experienced an ice storm. I have a flight on Xmas morning. Likely cancelled if this verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS barely gets rain into SEMI except for the southeastern 3 counties, almost all ice for most of Metro Detroit. I like the trends. Accumulating Snow just NW of MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Winter Storm Watch for the N and NW suburbs/NW cwa. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL353 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANTWINTRY ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ILZ006-010>012-200600-/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0006.131222T0000Z-131223T0000Z/LAKE IL-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA353 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYAFTERNOON.* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO ALL SNOWSUNDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT...POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONBY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.* OTHER IMPACT...THE CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WITH FREEZING RAINSATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GLAZE ON ROADWAYS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I've never experienced an ice storm. I have a flight on Xmas morning. Likely cancelled if this verifies? I think in all but the worst case scenario, you should be ok for Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 going to play the hypotheticals for a minute. If the first low that's bringing the rain tomorrow would've been stronger, what does that mean for this storm? Would it suppress it a bit more SE and miss most of the forum members? Or would it be more of a wound up winter storm due to the strong LLT and baroclinic zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 going to play the hypotheticals for a minute. If the first low that's bringing the rain tomorrow would've been stronger, what does that mean for this storm? Would it suppress it a bit more SE and miss most of the forum members? Or would it be more of a wound up winter storm due to the strong LLT and baroclinic zone? I think the former, but it wouldn't have missed most of the forum members, just the ones on the NW side of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS barely gets rain into SEMI except for the southeastern 3 counties, almost all ice for most of Metro Detroit. My brain is going to explode..... Ice is not fun to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Is southern Ontario susceptible to freezing rain events? I would think areas near the lakes could escape most ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Another drastic cut in the QPF by the GFS. So far I think it's the only model showing us in a relative col between the WCB and CCB precipitation areas. Good news is I wouldn't be surprised if it verbatim is showing a couple hours of snow Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Is southern Ontario susceptible to freezing rain events? I would think areas near the lakes could escape most ZR. Granted, this is east of the Toronto area, but this is an interesting read if you haven't heard of it. I couldn't even imagine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Ice_Storm_of_1998 Also, I'd imagine most icing events see winds out of the northeast, thus little moderating effects from Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Is southern Ontario susceptible to freezing rain events? I would think areas near the lakes could escape most ZR. I wouldn't say Lk Ontario has much effect on our ability to get ZR in Toronto, unless the winds are from the east. In fact the topography around Toronto is amenable to CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 yeah, if the heavy rain makes it well into SEMI, then this thing is going full hilt. If it doesn't, it isn't. confused by this statement. If tomorrows low is stronger (still hypothetical) and pulls down more cold air, and forces this storm a bit more Se, it could go full tilt and still hit us and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The zone of suck...stuck in the middle with just a lousy SWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 yeah, if the heavy rain makes it well into SEMI, then this thing is going full hilt. If it doesn't, it isn't. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 LOT with an excellent AFD. Excerpt of section w/snow discussion. AS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION IS WINDING DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLYSUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM NOT ONLY WILLBE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEPHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NRNPLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SECONDARYCIRCULATION OVER NRN IL BY SUNDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE DRAW OFCOOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND A STRONGDEFORMATION ZONE ARE ADVERTISED TO SET UP OVER NRN IL/SRN WI WHICHWILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSSING ELEMENTS FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. ATTHIS POINT...BASED ON THE GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE NAM ANDECMWF...WHICH WOULD WOULD INDICATE AN AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW GENERALLYFROM ERN IOWA TO SERN WISCONSIN. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CONFIDENCEIS BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH FOR IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THENRN AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS OUTLINED IN THE WINTER STORMWATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT THE ENTIRECWA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG A LINEFROM CHIGACO TO PONTIA AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM VALPARAISO TOPONTIC...TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAR SERN PORTIONSOF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan45 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Hope this thing shifts a bit more...I don't want to see my 14"+ snowpack melt away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just to highlight the ice potential locally, from WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 LakeEffectVideos.com?? WxBell snow maps: The funny thing is that JB is full of praise for Ryan Mauie who designed these maps. To be honest, though, JB hasn't done too poorly this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 You know, here we are... Sitting less than a week from Christmas. A lot of people are traveling Saturday-Sunday, many at night too. Cutting to the center of this, I really think WSW's should have been posted for all areas where the "wiggle" of the current low track could effect. I've talked to several people who are traveling this weekend, one in particular driving Saturday night to avoid traffic from Marshall into Canada. He said "the weather said heavy rain and 50 degrees"... Maybe this is where my firefighter/public safety comes out and says really? COME ON. Millions are traveling this weekend. Someone is going to end up with a ice storm, snow storm and flooding conditions. Post a WSW or atleast a statement! Know what I mean? Worst comes to worst, the NWS busts and only minimal amounts of precip will fall, Atleast the public would be AWARE of the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Any extra data tonight compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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