Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Latest 12z ECMWF for YYZ 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC 0.8 4.7 1010 90 97 0.06 558 549 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 2.6 1012 95 100 0.26 559 549 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.4 2.7 1008 94 100 0.45 558 551 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.1 2.3 1008 94 94 0.76 556 549SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.1 5.0 1005 92 16 0.07 552 548 YYZ steady at -0.4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow that sucks. It can be a drag where you slowly build up a snow cover and all of sudden just before Christmas, "The Grinch" comes knocking on the door. And I can say the same for much of the Winter too. But we do see winters, like 08-09, where we can have a steady snow cover through out the Winter season, and have it survive through the warm-ups in-between. I would love a repeat of some of the 70s winters. Cold rains are a drag. I hate them. It ruins any sort of weather excitement you may have. Stay safe my friend. Never know what sort of surprises are lurking with these types of storms. Yeah models do hint some clippers coming in from now till New Years, should be interesting too. it majorly sucks, but it was expected though. If we didnt stay so mild for so long Thu/Fri, we would have been able to soak all the rain into a huge glacier, but too much damage done. I do have to drive to a Christmas party well north of Detroit tonight, so that may be interesting. The 70s winters were great but even they had periods like this. As 2007-08 taught us, sometimes to get the snowiest winters you have to have periods like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Can't believe how much EC is downplaying this event in their warnings. Winds gusting to 35 mph tomorrow following 1.5" of ice accretion?? The media needs to get people prepping NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If the GFS and Euro are correct I like where I sit especially if we can get some convective elements with the dry slot nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Unfortunately I think you're right. I'm betting Euro will come in drier with the 12z run, and it already was looking less juicy this far north than it was a couple days ago. None of the models handled the storm very well, as of now there is no winner with this storm model-wise. Yep, you were right, the Euro came in even drier. Maybe my 4.5" call will bust high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Agreed, Looks paltry, Downgrade in WSW's Now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro comes in drier as well.... qpf range of 0.3" near MSN to 0.6" in the far SE. Actually, yeah it did budge. Heaviest snow from Hannibal, MO to Chicago, to the northern suburbs of Detroit. Extreme gradient over SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 For whatever reason the 00z Euro runs have been wetter than the 12z Euro runs the last few days. Probably doesn't mean anything, but it's sort of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 chicago keeping warnings and advisories LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FEATURE A WARM NOSE CLOSE TO +3C AT 800 MBOVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COOL LATER IN THEAFTERNOON...SO WITH 850 MB NEAR 0C AND A DECENT SUB FREEZING LAYERDOWN TO THE SURFACE...HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON SLEET MENTION THAN ZRAS PRECIP GRADUALLY INCHES NORTHWARD. LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCEFOR FAR NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN IL WHICH VERY WELL COULD STILLBE TOO HIGH. THERMAL PROFILES FOR THESE AREAS SUGGEST LIGHT SNOWOR SLEET AT THE ONSET WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE.CONTINUE TO MONITOR W/V SATELLITE TRENDS CLOSELY WITH UPPER LEVELLOW STARTING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER TEXAS. EVEN AT THISLATE HOUR...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY SHARPLY ON THE TRAJECTORY OFTHIS FEATURE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PATH OF THEDEFORMATION AXIS SNOWS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT THAT WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT THE RAP/NAMMAY BE A BIT TOO FAR WEST IN EVEN KEEPING THE DEFO AXIS OUTSIDE OFTHE NW CWA BUT IN TURN THE LATEST GFS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTHEAST.NO HEADLINE CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR MID DAY AS WE CONTINUE TO ASSESSOBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA...BUT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORYSHOULD BE GOOD TO EXPIRE AT 19Z...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OFLIVINGSTON COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Heaviest snow from Hannibal, MO to Chicago, to the northern suburbs of Detroit. Extreme gradient over SE MI. WxBell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Anybody recall what the QPF of the Euro was for KRFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Can't believe how much EC is downplaying this event in their warnings. Winds gusting to 35 mph tomorrow following 1.5" of ice accretion?? The media needs to get people prepping NOW The local media is calling for a bit of Ice and all their weather personalities are calling for rain for Toronto-Hamilton (as of last nights newscasts) So the general public has no idea what could be on the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 score one for apx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Anybody recall what the QPF of the Euro was for KRFD? Right at a half inch total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 WxBell? It is, but I'm looking at it from a non-accumulation perspective. The cut off is extreme. From southern Wayne County to NW Oakland County there is a 9" spread. Take it FWIW, given those maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 it majorly sucks, but it was expected though. If we didnt stay so mild for so long Thu/Fri, we would have been able to soak all the rain into a huge glacier, but too much damage done. I do have to drive to a Christmas party well north of Detroit tonight, so that may be interesting. The 70s winters were great but even they had periods like this. As 2007-08 taught us, sometimes to get the snowiest winters you have to have periods like this. On the bench sitting this one out. Perhaps the next one will be more interesting for all of us. One thing is for sure there is still a lot of opportunities this winter for some very big snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Can't believe how much EC is downplaying this event in their warnings. Winds gusting to 35 mph tomorrow following 1.5" of ice accretion?? The media needs to get people prepping NOW EC I think is doing an ok job. The wording they're using in the text of the warning is "major ice storm" and they mention the risk of widespread power outages. I think it's the media that's downplaying the threat. To them, they just assume Toronto cannot be the victim of a major ice storm. That's more of an Ottawa-Montreal thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Latest 12z ECMWF for YYZ YYZ steady at -0.4C. EURO already too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Toronto is up a creek without a paddle. The only possible saving grace would be if more sleet mixes in than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 EC I think is doing an ok job. The wording they're using in the text of the warning is "major ice storm" and they mention the risk of widespread power outages. I think it's the media that's downplaying the threat. To them, they just assume Toronto cannot be the victim of a major ice storm. That's more of an Ottawa-Montreal thing. I too think EC is doing good here. EC is not downplaying this event and I thought the wording was strong in their warnings. Sometimes I think its not strong enough to convey how much damage could occur or how it easily could be more than "widespread" power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Alek was right about this being a sh*t fest with the models. I'm thinking it's because the wave dove down into Mexico, which out of the balloon network? RAP and EURO are sided together now. With the GFS not being much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 They do ok, but they should be more dramatic. They should not smile and laugh. It should be treated like a tornado watch-warning. They still explain to people what is freezing rain, I mean, ok. TWN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 new thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42081-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-4/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.