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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Mt Geos sucks up all the surrounding snow lol.  Wouldn't surprised if some of our snow is sucked up by its presence.

 

Lol!

In fact I'll post a picture of the area in a bit.

 

Temp. not really going up at all today. Bridges are slick, shaded areas, driveways, etc.

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How much snow left?

 

I have 5.3" at my house exactly. I cant speak for anyone else but based on reports, much of the city has over 4" of snow cover left still. I believe downtown took the hardest city amongst any other part of the GTA. But they still have a decent snow cover. 

 

How about yourself? Stay safe man! :) 

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I came home to a 5" glacier. I was actually expecting a bit more but I guess the layer of ZR compressed it.

My 8am depth went...

12/17- 9"

12/18- 8"

12/19- 8"

12/20- 5"

12/21- 2"

 

You dont expect a full winter snowcover here, and you know theres plenty more on the way...but its never easy. Still about 2" of slush remaining past noon.

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I have 5.3" at my house exactly. I cant speak for anyone else but based on reports, much of the city has over 4" of snow cover left still. I believe downtown took the hardest city amongst any other part of the GTA. But they still have a decent snow cover. 

 

How about yourself? Stay safe man! :)

See above post. No ice here...I will be safe lol ;) Hopefully when you come for the winter classic there will be more than dirty snowbanks :)

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TD just plummeted to -1.7c at YYZ. Unless the QPF whiffs or it somehow ends up more as PL we are officially screwed.

 

Wow. Looks like this is going to be an all ZR event with perhaps PL mixed in at times? Based on the radar, the precip bands are confined to regions just south of the GTA, over Lake Ontario currently. The precip should start in the next few hours elsewhere. 

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TD just plummeted to -1.7c at YYZ. Unless the QPF whiffs or it somehow ends up more as PL we are officially screwed.

 

That 2C forecast high is going to bust HARD.

 

My thermometer outside is exactly 0C right now so no real accretion yet but I think its only a matter of time with the northerly flow.

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Lol!

In fact I'll post a picture of the area in a bit.

 

Temp. not really going up at all today. Bridges are slick, shaded areas, driveways, etc.

I'm in the woods where the snow likes to stick around, and there's no way we have 3"-4" left on the ground. A slushy, water-logged 2" might even be pushing it. I bet we pop above freezing later today.

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12z HRW NNM rapes eastern Iowa with heavy snow from mid-evening through the night.  Looks great for Hawkeye to Dubuque.  Really riding the eastern edge here.  Could be a situation where DVN gets 6-8", while we only get a few inches.  Gonna be a close one.  Still riding my general 3-6" for here and the QC.

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See above post. No ice here...I will be safe lol ;) Hopefully when you come for the winter classic there will be more than dirty snowbanks :)

 

Wow your snow cover took a big hit. I believe my snow pack will survive just in time for Christmas. Some bitterly cold conditions next week but atleast its clear skies for the time being. Should make it easier for the clean-up crews to do their jobs, lol. Same! We can have Winters where the snow cover survives the entire Winter season. Like for example, in 08-09, it did for the most part.

 

Whats the conditions expected for your area with this storm?

 

Haha, I cant wait. Leafs vs Detroit. A true Winter classic. 

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Current temp shows we are right at freezing....but I see what used to be frozen droplets on my tree are starting to drip off...so temp appears to be heading up...

 

I agree, if there are any surprises it will be in the form of ice....

 

It will be interesting to watch the trends in the deform band and dryslot...if nothing else from a standpoint of lessons to learn...

 

RAP is bringing the SLP (which I know doesn't really have any profound affect on the winter precip way up here due to the UL flow) from southern IL to central Indiana and onto northern central Ohio ish.....

 

Another interesting trend to watch will be how the ULL evolves and moves along...

 

I agree with still some surprises....but not too many on a major scale...at least to me with where my expectations were...I had been thinking ORD would do ok with this system...mix at MDW...and even worse at my location further west of MDW.  Perhaps I end up seeing a bit more wintery precip than MDW due to it's position within upper level flow as a precip shield works it's way in.  One thing I swung and missed on was the evolution of the dry slot...I expected it to stay south of the LOT for the most part and not be AS pronounced as it is currently modeled...again, for now, I will chalk that up to another lesson learned...but I will watch to see how things evolve through out the day before I toss my forecast in the toilet or put it on the mantle lol...cheers

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This off the DVN fb page.  They must be riding the Euro.  As far as I know it's the only model showing that much precip in the cold sector.

 

 

 

4-6"... I'll take that. 

 

Already slick around here. 

 

WSI-RPM 3am tonight. Close, real close.

 

1512436_10152050410736760_14853194_n.jpg

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White Christmas prospects? :unsure:

Meh, Ill go....chance of snowbanks...99%....chance of at least a dusting...75%...chance of an official White Christmas (1"+)...50% (right at climo lol). Right now DTX has snow likely Monday night (60%) and says 1-2" should fall in much of SE MI, but some of it is dependent on Lake MI so thats always iffy.

 

Side fact....3 of Detroits top 6 snowiest winters on record did not have an official White Christmas. In 1880-81 (93.6"), 2007-08 (71.7"), and 1899-00 (69.1"), all 3 winters saw Christmas snow depth of just a T.

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Wow your snow cover took a big hit. I believe my snow pack will survive just in time for Christmas. Some bitterly cold conditions next week but atleast its clear skies for the time being. Should make it easier for the clean-up crews to do their jobs, lol. Same! We can have Winters where the snow cover survives the entire Winter season. Like for example, in 08-09, it did for the most part.

 

Whats the conditions expected for your area with this storm?

 

Haha, I cant wait. Leafs vs Detroit. A true Winter classic. 

Yes...we didnt torch, but since Thursday morning it has mostly been in the mid-upper 30s (maxed at 41F), and pretty much all day yesterday dewpoints ranged from 35-40F. That, along with rain, is a slow snowcover eater. It doesnt disappear like magic as it would in a torch, but no freezing temps to slow or halt the process. Some winters have good snowcover here, incl 08-09, with just a few short-lived bare periods, but a 100% snowcovered winter from Nov to Apr as the old-timers would say has never happened.

 

Expecting lots of cold 32-34F rain here with this system, and the ground is frozen, so we will be left with waterlogged snowbanks, puddles, and probably mostly bare ground that should all flash freeze tomorrow night. With cold air and lake MI, there will be snow prospects between now and New years however.

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Meh, Ill go....chance of snowbanks...99%....chance of at least a dusting...75%...chance of an official White Christmas (1"+)...50% (right at climo lol). Right now DTX has snow likely Monday night (60%) and says 1-2" should fall in much of SE MI, but some of it is dependent on Lake MI so thats always iffy.

 

Side fact....3 of Detroits top 6 snowiest winters on record did not have an official White Christmas. In 1880-81 (93.6"), 2007-08 (71.7"), and 1899-00 (69.1"), all 3 winters saw Christmas snow depth of just a T.

 

Always forget about 07-08. After the December 15-16th storm it looked like it was going to be impossible for it not to be a white Christmas. That's why you ever underestimate mother nature's caprice. Actually, at least for you guys, this year is similar.

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Gilbertfly I still have some frozen drops here on my trees. Temp is right at 32F.  Has ticked up a few tenths since 11am. Looks like a more northern push of precip moving up thru southern IL. Question is....will temps be above freezing when it arrives.  Seriously a nowcast event if there ever was one. 

 

yeah....still have a halfway decent snowpack here....spots under the trees are down to the lawn...but elsewhere we still have an inch or two around....I was expecting that to be long gone except for the piles on the side of the driveway

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Gilbertfly I still have some frozen drops here on my trees. Temp is right at 32F.  Has ticked up a few tenths since 11am. Looks like a more northern push of precip moving up thru southern IL. Question is....will temps be above freezing when it arrives.  Seriously a nowcast event if there ever was one. 

 

 

Looks like much of the precip won't get in there until near sundown or after.  Tiny details matter in marginal situations so will nightfall be able to take even a half degree or degree off your temp?  We shall see.  

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Ice Storm Warning here in Southern Lower Michigan. Wonder where the other "Harry"

is.

Fully expecting the unexpected here. Anywhere from a glazing to nearly an inch of ice. NWS GRR pretty certain we drop to 29-30 with heavy rain this evening/overnight. I definitely feel a surprise coming.

Also, someone this morning called me.. "Hey Harry... How much rain we getting tonight?" Lol I told her we were going to have an ice storm and she said she heard 40 and rain on a local channel. Lol smh. People completely unaware.

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Emmett, why don't you wait for the new euro to come out?

 

I guess I find the drying trend on the GFS pretty convincing, so I didn't think of waiting for the 12z Euro run, after all, we are within the 24 hour window now. Its so hard to tell with this one, the models are still waffling around with the qpf, so my 4.5" call could bust big time.

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Yes...we didnt torch, but since Thursday morning it has mostly been in the mid-upper 30s (maxed at 41F), and pretty much all day yesterday dewpoints ranged from 35-40F. That, along with rain, is a slow snowcover eater. It doesnt disappear like magic as it would in a torch, but no freezing temps to slow or halt the process. Some winters have good snowcover here, incl 08-09, with just a few short-lived bare periods, but a 100% snowcovered winter from Nov to Apr as the old-timers would say has never happened.

 

Expecting lots of cold 32-34F rain here with this system, and the ground is frozen, so we will be left with waterlogged snowbanks, puddles, and probably mostly bare ground that should all flash freeze tomorrow night. With cold air and lake MI, there will be snow prospects between now and New years however.

 

Wow that sucks. It can be a drag where you slowly build up a snow cover and all of sudden just before Christmas, "The Grinch" comes knocking on the door. And I can say the same for much of the Winter too. But we do see winters, like 08-09, where we can have a steady snow cover through out the Winter season, and have it survive through the warm-ups in-between. I would love a repeat of some of the 70s winters.  

 

Cold rains are a drag. I hate them. It ruins any sort of weather excitement you may have. Stay safe my friend. Never know what sort of surprises are lurking with these types of storms. Yeah models do hint some clippers coming in from now till New Years, should be interesting too.

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Always forget about 07-08. After the December 15-16th storm it looked like it was going to be impossible for it not to be a white Christmas. That's why you ever underestimate mother nature's caprice. Actually, at least for you guys, this year is similar.

Yup..Ma Nature is not to be underestimated. We were up to 10" on the ground on the 17th and it was grinched away the overnight of the 22nd into the 23rd. The worst was probably 1973. After an 11.2" snowstorm on the 19th/20th, warm air started moving in on Christmas Eve, and while the 7am snow depth on Christmas was 7", it rained all day with temps into the 40s, and the depth was down to 1" on the 26th and a T by the next day. Picture displacing everything a day earlier (getting almost a foot of snow on the 18th and then having it washed away to almost nothing Christmas morn). Thats why it irritated me to hear everyone saying all week "a white Christmas this year" as it irritated me last year with everyone saying "a green Christmas" the week before Christmas. People will never learn when it comes to Mother Nature.

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