cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This off the DVN fb page. They must be riding the Euro. As far as I know it's the only model showing that much precip in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 the 546dam is going north the last 3 runs GFS-NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This off the DVN fb page. They must be riding the Euro. As far as I know it's the only model showing that much precip in the cold sector. The NAM or RGEM would be considerations as well. Those are the other two models that are juicy atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm surprised how toasty you are. The low level cold air advection isn't finished though. You may sink another degree or so eventually. Irony is because of the interconnectedness of the grid, you may lose power even without experiencing an ice storm. Ya some of the models have shown the lakeshore getting in on the ice but I think it will be up to the weather gods. A good indicator for me is Toronto Islands weather. would it be possible for anyone get the data for that airport, that would be closer to whats going to happen to me rather then Pearsons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 was this precip shield forecasted to take a long time to progress north? LOT talked about a disturbance in N IL that may have slowed down its movement. prolly most likely due to subsidence. I see the RAP also develops a potent dry slot that passes over a good chunk of central and NE IL. that is a bit concerning. that would drastically kill any snow/ice totals. its weird b/c models are shifting SE some with their snow but the def band just want to stay around the QC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm thinking that the biggest story of this storm won't be the winter wx but the severe down south and on up into Ohio per SPC unless Michigan and Toronto get their predicted ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm surprised how toasty you are. The low level cold air advection isn't finished though. You may sink another degree or so eventually. Irony is because of the interconnectedness of the grid, you may lose power even without experiencing an ice storm. About the power grid, I have already figured that theres a good chance that that could happen. Im a KM away from the lake and it appears the icing starts around 3-4km away from the lake. Heres a link for the Hydro One Storm centre. http://www.hydroone.com/StormCenter3/ Should be interesting to watch this light up as the day/night goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 was this precip shield forecasted to take a long time to progress north? LOT talked about a disturbance in N IL that may have slowed down its movement. prolly most likely due to subsidence. I see the RAP also develops a potent dry slot that passes over a good chunk of central and NE IL. that is a bit concerning. that would drastically kill any snow/ice totals. its weird b/c models are shifting SE some with their snow but the def band just want to stay around the QC Dry slot could still creep up into Chicago, it wouldn't surprise me, it's talked about a ton on here how dry slots are always undermodeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It was amazingly crappy. 3 1/2 hour delay. I got to bed a 3:30 in the morning. Need coffee today. I'm surprised how toasty you are. The low level cold air advection isn't finished though. You may sink another degree or so eventually. Irony is because of the interconnectedness of the grid, you may lose power even without experiencing an ice storm. Ya some of the models have shown the lakeshore getting in on the ice but I think it will be up to the weather gods. A good indicator for me is Toronto Islands weather. would it be possible for anyone get the data for that airport, that would be closer to whats going to happen to me rather then Pearsons http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-128_metric_e.html YYZ now down to -0.4C. I remember I had a few blackouts during thunderstorms and once during the February 2008 snowstorm but they were minor and the longest was like 5 hours. Its dangerous outside. I cant even step a foot outside without slipping -_- I still have a nice snow cover of around 5" but all the standing water from yesterday is all ice. Trees are also covered in ice. Stay safe. I hope I can still watch the Hockey game tonight without losing power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 About the power grid, I have already figured that theres a good chance that that could happen. Im a KM away from the lake and it appears the icing starts around 3-4km away from the lake. Heres a link for the Hydro One Storm centre. http://www.hydroone.com/StormCenter3/ Should be interesting to watch this light up as the day/night goes onYeah you will definitely have the lake influencing your surface temps being that close. I'm 6km away, straight line distance.Already 5,000 Hydroone customers affected and this thing hasn't even really got going. I think I'm going to stop checking the models at this point, minus the HRRR (although it hasn't run in a while). It's definitely nowcasting time. Interesting to see YYZ temps trending down so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 About the power grid, I have already figured that theres a good chance that that could happen. Im a KM away from the lake and it appears the icing starts around 3-4km away from the lake. Heres a link for the Hydro One Storm centre. http://www.hydroone.com/StormCenter3/ Should be interesting to watch this light up as the day/night goes on I've never seen a BUFKIT profile for YTZ, even on the PSU page. Maybe the intrepid Harrisale can dig one up. Too bad the HydroOne power outage map isn't comprehensive (it doesn't cover the urban areas that have local power utilities). Maybe Toronto Hydro has a similar feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The latest look at the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Doesn't it though? It all started when a friend of my wife posted one of those WxBell weenie maps with 18"+ of snow on her Facebook, like Sunday I think it was. The meandering of the models from run-to-run just gave me headaches. And the best part is a large part of this storm will come down to now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I've never seen a BUFKIT profile for YTZ, even on the PSU page. Maybe the intrepid Harrisale can dig one up. Too bad the HydroOne power outage map isn't comprehensive (it doesn't cover the urban areas that have local power utilities). Maybe Toronto Hydro has a similar feature. Indeed they do. It's begun http://www.torontohydro.com/sites/electricsystem/PowerOutages/Pages/OutageMap.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-128_metric_e.html YYZ now down to -0.4C. I remember I had a few blackouts during thunderstorms and once during the February 2008 snowstorm but they were minor and the longest was like 5 hours. Its dangerous outside. I cant even step a foot outside without slipping -_- I still have a nice snow cover of around 5" but all the standing water from yesterday is all ice. Trees are also covered in ice. Stay safe. I hope I can still watch the Hockey game tonight without losing power Thanks for sending the link but I meant the airport data which show the 850s and 2M ground temps. Sorry I should have been clearer. On the hockey game note I was wondering what they will do if the storm is as bad as predicted. If I remember correctly someone mentioned the streetcars have a tough time during ice events. would that be the same for Go trains? having 20,000 fans get out during a significant ice storm could be a nightmare by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks for sending the link but I meant the airport data which show the 850s and 2M ground temps. Sorry I should have been clearer. On the hockey game note I was wondering what they will do if the storm is as bad as predicted. If I remember correctly someone mentioned the streetcars have a tough time during ice events. would that be the same for Go trains? having 20,000 fans get out during a significant ice storm could be a nightmare by itself I think raw data like that is available on NOAA, SSC must know about that. I havent seen Environment Canada releasing data about upper air temperatures. And its going to be horrible tonight. Imagine the power goes out while the game is going on? I believe if conditions worsen, the game will most likely be cancelled. Tonight will basically be a preview of the Winter classic If your a leafs fan i presume you'll be watching tonight, despite all the accumulated losses of late, LOL. Flights have already been delayed at Pearson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks for sending the link but I meant the airport data which show the 850s and 2M ground temps. Sorry I should have been clearer. On the hockey game note I was wondering what they will do if the storm is as bad as predicted. If I remember correctly someone mentioned the streetcars have a tough time during ice events. would that be the same for Go trains? having 20,000 fans get out during a significant ice storm could be a nightmare by itself Back on Dec 23, 2004, a few mm of freezing rain in the morning (after 18 cm of snow fell) was enough to shut down the entire TTC streetcar system. Streetcars couldn't move because of ice on the overhead wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah you will definitely have the lake influencing your surface temps being that close. I'm 6km away, straight line distance. Already 5,000 Hydroone customers affected and this thing hasn't even really got going. I think I'm going to stop checking the models at this point, minus the HRRR (although it hasn't run in a while). It's definitely nowcasting time. Interesting to see YYZ temps trending down so early. I guess the good news for me, is that Chris Scott just sent out a tweet saying that Toronto Lakeshore and QEW communities to Hamilton will see rain this afternoon turning to Freezing Rain this evening. At least if I end up losing power I don't have a cold rain to rub it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think raw data like that is available on NOAA, SSC must know about that. I havent seen Environment Canada releasing data about upper air temperatures. And its going to be horrible tonight. Imagine the power goes out while the game is going on? I believe if conditions worsen, the game will most likely be cancelled. Tonight will basically be a preview of the Winter classic If your a leafs fan i presume you'll be watching tonight, despite all the accumulated losses of late, LOL. Flights have already been delayed at Pearson. haha Ill be watching this interesting Leaf team tonight. Having the game cancelled would be best for both teams since Detroit has been crap lately as well. Detroit-Toronto NHL game tonight with both Michigan and Southern Ontario experiencing an Ice Storm, couldn't have written a better script for HBO. I wonder if HBO focuses some of its episode to the weather (Sorry for being OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm a bit new here, so sticking my neck out to make a call... I live in 53066 (Western Waukesha county WI). Calling for 4.5" imby. GFS runs have been slowly lowering qpf. (I may bust low big time judging by recent Euro and NAM runs showing more moisture, but I'm looking to make a name for myself...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just some like ZR over night, I'm heading out in a little bit to get a better grip on what's happening. We appear to be on the very north side of the precip right now. In the mean time LSX still seems to think it could get serious here today. Still appears that a very serious ice accumulation threat exists along a COU-MYJ-PPQ axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 haha Ill be watching this interesting Leaf team tonight. Having the game cancelled would be best for both teams since Detroit has been crap lately as well. Detroit-Toronto NHL game tonight with both Michigan and Southern Ontario experiencing an Ice Storm, couldn't have written a better script for HBO. I wonder if HBO focuses some of its episode to the weather (Sorry for being OT) Yeah I'm thinking of heading down to Detroit for the Winter Classic. Leafs started well but they fell back come November and now into December. I was p!ssed but we had our fair share of injuries this year too. I wouldn't be surprised if HBO does discuss about this storm in their episode as its affecting both cities. Lets go leafs! We need to gain some more wins to get a playoff position like we did last year.... YYZ steady around -0.4C. We still have a nice snow cover across much of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Emmett, why don't you wait for the new euro to come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm a bit new here, so sticking my neck out to make a call... I live in 53066 (Western Waukesha county WI). Calling for 4.5" imby. GFS runs have been slowly lowering qpf. (I may bust low big time judging by recent Euro and NAM runs showing more moisture, but I'm looking to make a name for myself...) Unfortunately I think you're right. I'm betting Euro will come in drier with the 12z run, and it already was looking less juicy this far north than it was a couple days ago. None of the models handled the storm very well, as of now there is no winner with this storm model-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Unfortunately I think you're right. I'm betting Euro will come in drier with the 12z run, and it already was looking less juicy this far north than it was a couple days ago. None of the models handled the storm very well, as of now there is no winner with this storm model-wise. Yeah, I fully expect to see many surprises once the Precip shield makes it here. Temps appear to be underperforming in N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol @ the gfs worst system ever temp 36 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah, I fully expect to see many surprises once the Precip shield makes it here. Temps appear to be underperforming in N IL Your surprises will be ice, but some snow is likely away from the lake and in the NW sections of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I've never seen a BUFKIT profile for YTZ, even on the PSU page. Maybe the intrepid Harrisale can dig one up. Too bad the HydroOne power outage map isn't comprehensive (it doesn't cover the urban areas that have local power utilities). Maybe Toronto Hydro has a similar feature. No CYTZ BUFKIT profiles that I know of unfortunately. Metar is at 34/32 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah I'm thinking of heading down to Detroit for the Winter Classic. Leafs started well but they fell back come November and now into December. I was p!ssed but we had our fair share of injuries this year too. I wouldn't be surprised if HBO does discuss about this storm in their episode as its affecting both cities. Lets go leafs! We need to gain some more wins to get a playoff position like we did last year.... YYZ steady around -0.4C. We still have a nice snow cover across much of the GTA. How much snow left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol @ the gfs worst system ever temp 36 IMBY this is a joke LAKE IL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN 832 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY... .REST OF TODAY...CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. NO ICE ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...SLEET OR SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BLUSTERY. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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