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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Yeah I'm not heading all the way over to Des Moines to catch I-35.  I-80 is a freakin disaster when it snows.  Decisions, decisions. 

 

I would head straight north to Milwaukee and then just take 94 to Minneapolis. At least the further north you go the less the snowfall accumulations will be while you are driving through. If you go west and north, you'll hit higher snowfall accumulations earlier in the evening.

 

Or 94, to US 41, catch WI 10 in Appleton, to 51/39, then take WI 29 to Eau Claire, then hook back up with 94 there.

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We are riding a fine line here in RAC and ENW. My first concern would be sfc temps with the NE wind off the warm lake. Second concern is an above freezing layer above 850mb, although it looks minimal and only the NAM is really showing it. Finally the dry air being shown in the mid-levels could cause us to loose ice crystals for a time, especially early Sunday morning. 

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We are riding a fine line here in RAC and ENW. My first concern would be sfc temps with the NE wind off the warm lake. Second concern is an above freezing layer above 850mb, although it looks minimal and only the NAM is really showing it. Finally the dry air being shown in the mid-levels could cause us to loose ice crystals for a time, especially early Sunday morning. 

 

How much snow cover do you have this morning?

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How much snow cover do you have this morning?

 

I would say most areas still have 2 inches although I've seen bare ground in some spots. Will be interesting to see how temps respond once winds become onshore later today. If we hold between 32-33 during the event we should be fine but anything warmer and we could be in trouble.

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I would say most areas still have 2 inches although I've seen bare ground in some spots. Will be interesting to see how temps respond once winds become onshore later today. If we hold between 32-33 during the event we should be fine but anything warmer and we could be in trouble.

 

I have more snow than you then. 3-4" here with very little grass showing through. 

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I would head straight north to Milwaukee and then just take 94 to Minneapolis. At least the further north you go the less the snowfall accumulations will be while you are driving through. If you go west and north, you'll hit higher snowfall accumulations earlier in the evening.

 

Or 94, to US 41, catch WI 10 in Appleton, to 51/39, then take WI 29 to Eau Claire, then hook back up with 94 there.

 

Not a bad idea. Thanks brother!

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Just got back from a store run... 31 with heavy fog, vis way under a mile, probably like 1/2. Snow pack is down to about 2" from around 6" the other day and grass is starting to poke thru in spots. The back streets are really slick in spots from yesterday's glazing of ZR, but main roads were clear.

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z DEC21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SAT 18Z 21-DEC   1.3     1.8    1012      90      96    0.08     557     547    
SUN 00Z 22-DEC  -0.2     0.8    1014      95      95    0.21     559     548    
SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.6     1.5    1011      94     100    0.34     558     549    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -1.9     1.7    1010      90     100    0.66     556     549    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -1.9     6.8    1004      92      88    0.12     553     549    
MON 00Z 23-DEC   2.3    -0.5    1006      91      19    0.09     551     547

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Milwaukee staying the course

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1014 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS HEADING INTO THIS EVENT. 12Z
NAM STILL WARM SUGGESTING A MIX LINGERS THE LONGEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE NAM ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PER
WETZEL INGREDIENT PLOTS. THIS SHOWS UP AT 700 THROUGH 500
MILLIBARS...AND RIGHT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERMAL PROFILE IS ALREADY
QUESTIONABLE. IF NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT ANY CONVECTION WOULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RELATIVE MIN
DUE TO THE MIX CONSIDERATIONS. ALL MODELS DO HAVE 540DM PLUS
THICKNESSES IN THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER MUCH MORE OF A CLOSER CALL
AND FOR A SHORTER DURATION. THE NAM SOUNDING ACTUALLY HAS A MIX IN
MILWAUKEE THROUGH 2 AM AND KENOSHA UNTIL 9 AM...BUT THIS IS THE
WARMEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO. SSEO PRECIP TYPES BASED ON THE
ARW/NMM/NAM LIMITED MIX THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE HAVE GOING ON IN OUR GRIDS...AND REALLY ONLY
THE VERY FAR SOUTHEAST...RACINE/KENOSHA/WALWORTH AND MAYBE
SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY FOR A TIME. WILL NOT ADJUST MIX TIMING
OR AREAL EXTENT SINCE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A
WARMER LAYER INTO THE SE. QPF AMOUNTS CAME IN LOWER ON THE 12Z GFS
BUT STILL RATHER ROBUST ON THE NAM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN
THOUGH LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER NUMBERS OF THE NAM AT THIS TIME.
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS QPF
SUPPORTS THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS DOES THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MIX. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM STILL SUPPORT THE
HIGHER NUMBERS WE HAVE GOING AT MOST OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE WARNED
AREA.

PC

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z DEC21

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SAT 18Z 21-DEC   1.3     1.8    1012      90      96    0.08     557     547    

SUN 00Z 22-DEC  -0.2     0.8    1014      95      95    0.21     559     548    

SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.6     1.5    1011      94     100    0.34     558     549    

SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -1.9     1.7    1010      90     100    0.66     556     549    

SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -1.9     6.8    1004      92      88    0.12     553     549    

MON 00Z 23-DEC   2.3    -0.5    1006      91      19    0.09     551     547

 

Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for)

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Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for)

Noticed that as well. GFS would bust high as well, Cobb data had 34.8F at 15Z and 33.5F at 18Z and we are nowhere near that... 31.6F currently reported at YYZ.

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Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for)

Thank god your back home safe. Hope you had an amazing flight Canuck :).

The storm has begun. My thermometer has a reading -0.5C. And the freezing rain is right on our doorstep.

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Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for)

Good luck to you guys. I was seeing tweets about how slippery it is in parts of the GTA. I see they have issued freezing rain warnings pretty far south. All of Niagara and even points further along the Lake Erie shorelines. They also have rainfall warnings. This is a strange situation with your temps under performing and mine down here being correct or even warmer then originally thought. Even Buffalo NWS has no idea whats going to happen with regards to ice potential along the northern Buffalo Suburbs. 

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Man it seems like we've been tracking this thing for weeks and weeks. 

Doesn't it though? It all started when a friend of my wife posted one of those WxBell weenie maps with 18"+ of snow on her Facebook, like Sunday I think it was. The meandering of the models from run-to-run just gave me headaches.

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Good luck to you guys. I was seeing tweets about how slippery it is in parts of the GTA. I see they have issued freezing rain warnings pretty far south. All of Niagara and even points further along the Lake Erie shorelines. They also have rainfall warnings. This is a strange situation with your temps under performing and mine down here being correct or even warmer then originally thought. Even Buffalo NWS has no idea whats going to happen with regards to ice potential along the northern Buffalo Suburbs. 

 

I'm surprised how toasty you are. The low level cold air advection isn't finished though. You may sink another degree or so eventually.

 

Irony is because of the interconnectedness of the grid, you may lose power even without experiencing an ice storm. :(

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