Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah I'm not heading all the way over to Des Moines to catch I-35. I-80 is a freakin disaster when it snows. Decisions, decisions. I would head straight north to Milwaukee and then just take 94 to Minneapolis. At least the further north you go the less the snowfall accumulations will be while you are driving through. If you go west and north, you'll hit higher snowfall accumulations earlier in the evening. Or 94, to US 41, catch WI 10 in Appleton, to 51/39, then take WI 29 to Eau Claire, then hook back up with 94 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 We are riding a fine line here in RAC and ENW. My first concern would be sfc temps with the NE wind off the warm lake. Second concern is an above freezing layer above 850mb, although it looks minimal and only the NAM is really showing it. Finally the dry air being shown in the mid-levels could cause us to loose ice crystals for a time, especially early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 We are riding a fine line here in RAC and ENW. My first concern would be sfc temps with the NE wind off the warm lake. Second concern is an above freezing layer above 850mb, although it looks minimal and only the NAM is really showing it. Finally the dry air being shown in the mid-levels could cause us to loose ice crystals for a time, especially early Sunday morning. How much snow cover do you have this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Straight rain, no road freezage. Car thermo says 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 How much snow cover do you have this morning? I would say most areas still have 2 inches although I've seen bare ground in some spots. Will be interesting to see how temps respond once winds become onshore later today. If we hold between 32-33 during the event we should be fine but anything warmer and we could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 thanks. Time to get the bags packed ready to go if need to. Inlaws here I come. Yay... the only place we could bug out to is north of Cadillac, so we're pretty much gonna be here, prepping as much as we can and hoping for the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z GFS on the weak side. All of the 0.50" precip snow area is gone, now it's mostly 0.30-0.40". After all the tracking this week that would be a little disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yay... the only place we could bug out to is north of Cadillac, so we're pretty much gonna be here, prepping as much as we can and hoping for the dryslot. It has begun here. Although it's very light but we are just below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Good luck on the drive...and do it safely. Thanks, i will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 12z GFS is dry...however it looks like thermals would'nt be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It has begun here. Although it's very light but we are just below freezing. Same. Just below freezing at -0.2C. Light freezing rain/drizzle. If temps don't bump up above zero today we could be in for some of the high end accretions. Ice wasn't forecast to start until this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 12z GFS is dry...however it looks like thermals would'nt be an issue. Of course, that's what happens when it trends SE and colder lol. The RGEM looks very nice for us, though. The question is whether to factor in the RGEM and other short term models more than the globals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I would say most areas still have 2 inches although I've seen bare ground in some spots. Will be interesting to see how temps respond once winds become onshore later today. If we hold between 32-33 during the event we should be fine but anything warmer and we could be in trouble. I have more snow than you then. 3-4" here with very little grass showing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I would head straight north to Milwaukee and then just take 94 to Minneapolis. At least the further north you go the less the snowfall accumulations will be while you are driving through. If you go west and north, you'll hit higher snowfall accumulations earlier in the evening. Or 94, to US 41, catch WI 10 in Appleton, to 51/39, then take WI 29 to Eau Claire, then hook back up with 94 there. Not a bad idea. Thanks brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I have more snow than you then. 3-4" here with very little grass showing through. Mt Geos sucks up all the surrounding snow lol. Wouldn't surprised if some of our snow is sucked up by its presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Same. Just below freezing at -0.2C. Light freezing rain/drizzle. If temps don't bump up above zero today we could be in for some of the high end accretions. Ice wasn't forecast to start until this evening. It still over 1C down here by the lake. How big of a hit has your snow taken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It still over 1C down here by the lake. How big of a hit has your snow taken? Took a decent hit but still about 6" on the ground if I had to guess. Started around 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just got back from a store run... 31 with heavy fog, vis way under a mile, probably like 1/2. Snow pack is down to about 2" from around 6" the other day and grass is starting to poke thru in spots. The back streets are really slick in spots from yesterday's glazing of ZR, but main roads were clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z DEC21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 1.8 1012 90 96 0.08 557 547 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -0.2 0.8 1014 95 95 0.21 559 548 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.6 1.5 1011 94 100 0.34 558 549 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.9 1.7 1010 90 100 0.66 556 549 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.9 6.8 1004 92 88 0.12 553 549 MON 00Z 23-DEC 2.3 -0.5 1006 91 19 0.09 551 547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Milwaukee staying the course AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1014 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013.UPDATE...STILL PLENTY OF CONCERNS HEADING INTO THIS EVENT. 12ZNAM STILL WARM SUGGESTING A MIX LINGERS THE LONGEST IN THESOUTHEAST. THE NAM ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PERWETZEL INGREDIENT PLOTS. THIS SHOWS UP AT 700 THROUGH 500MILLIBARS...AND RIGHT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOTWRAPPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERMAL PROFILE IS ALREADYQUESTIONABLE. IF NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT ANY CONVECTION WOULD LEADTO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RELATIVE MINDUE TO THE MIX CONSIDERATIONS. ALL MODELS DO HAVE 540DM PLUSTHICKNESSES IN THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER MUCH MORE OF A CLOSER CALLAND FOR A SHORTER DURATION. THE NAM SOUNDING ACTUALLY HAS A MIX INMILWAUKEE THROUGH 2 AM AND KENOSHA UNTIL 9 AM...BUT THIS IS THEWARMEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO. SSEO PRECIP TYPES BASED ON THEARW/NMM/NAM LIMITED MIX THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WHICH ISESSENTIALLY WHAT WE HAVE GOING ON IN OUR GRIDS...AND REALLY ONLYTHE VERY FAR SOUTHEAST...RACINE/KENOSHA/WALWORTH AND MAYBESOUTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY FOR A TIME. WILL NOT ADJUST MIX TIMINGOR AREAL EXTENT SINCE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH AWARMER LAYER INTO THE SE. QPF AMOUNTS CAME IN LOWER ON THE 12Z GFSBUT STILL RATHER ROBUST ON THE NAM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETWEENTHOUGH LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER NUMBERS OF THE NAM AT THIS TIME.WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS QPFSUPPORTS THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS DOES THE POTENTIALFOR A MIX. MEANWHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM STILL SUPPORT THEHIGHER NUMBERS WE HAVE GOING AT MOST OTHER AREAS WITHIN THE WARNEDAREA.PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z DEC21 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 1.8 1012 90 96 0.08 557 547 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -0.2 0.8 1014 95 95 0.21 559 548 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.6 1.5 1011 94 100 0.34 558 549 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -1.9 1.7 1010 90 100 0.66 556 549 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.9 6.8 1004 92 88 0.12 553 549 MON 00Z 23-DEC 2.3 -0.5 1006 91 19 0.09 551 547 Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Gonna be a looong day. Precip doesn't really get going for the QC until after dark. Looks like the best period for snow will be well after midnight, so gonna have to make it an all nighter. Man it seems like we've been tracking this thing for weeks and weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Gonna be a looong day. Precip doesn't really get going for the QC until after dark. Looks like the best period for snow will be well after midnight, so gonna have to make it an all nighter. Man it seems like we've been tracking this thing for weeks and weeks. Yep. Precip field is so close, yet so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for) Noticed that as well. GFS would bust high as well, Cobb data had 34.8F at 15Z and 33.5F at 18Z and we are nowhere near that... 31.6F currently reported at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for) Thank god your back home safe. Hope you had an amazing flight Canuck . The storm has begun. My thermometer has a reading -0.5C. And the freezing rain is right on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Scary thing is that EC and the EURO may bust high with temps today. I'm thinking we may not go above freezing (and definitely not +2 like the EC forecast is calling for) Good luck to you guys. I was seeing tweets about how slippery it is in parts of the GTA. I see they have issued freezing rain warnings pretty far south. All of Niagara and even points further along the Lake Erie shorelines. They also have rainfall warnings. This is a strange situation with your temps under performing and mine down here being correct or even warmer then originally thought. Even Buffalo NWS has no idea whats going to happen with regards to ice potential along the northern Buffalo Suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Man it seems like we've been tracking this thing for weeks and weeks. Doesn't it though? It all started when a friend of my wife posted one of those WxBell weenie maps with 18"+ of snow on her Facebook, like Sunday I think it was. The meandering of the models from run-to-run just gave me headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thank god your back home safe. Hope you had an amazing flight Canuck . The storm has begun. My thermometer has a reading -0.5C. And the freezing rain is right on our doorstep. It was amazingly crappy. 3 1/2 hour delay. I got to bed a 3:30 in the morning. Need coffee today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 was at 33.2 earlier, now up to 34.2, plain rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Good luck to you guys. I was seeing tweets about how slippery it is in parts of the GTA. I see they have issued freezing rain warnings pretty far south. All of Niagara and even points further along the Lake Erie shorelines. They also have rainfall warnings. This is a strange situation with your temps under performing and mine down here being correct or even warmer then originally thought. Even Buffalo NWS has no idea whats going to happen with regards to ice potential along the northern Buffalo Suburbs. I'm surprised how toasty you are. The low level cold air advection isn't finished though. You may sink another degree or so eventually. Irony is because of the interconnectedness of the grid, you may lose power even without experiencing an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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