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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3


Chicago Storm

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15z SREF plumes for ORD took a baby step up from 9z, less sub 1" members, larger spread between 1-4"

 

Decent cross model consensus for 1-4" of back end defo snows for the N/NW part of the CWA.

 

Hopefully we can get a few more timing changes to go our way and bump these numbers up a bit.

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15z SREF plumes for ORD took a baby step up from 9z, less sub 1" members, larger spread between 1-4"

 

Decent cross model consensus for 1-4" of back end defo snows for the N/NW part of the CWA.

 

Hopefully we can get a few more timing changes to go our way and bump these numbers up a bit.

 

Still think this thing looks pretty funky on the models, but at least there is a little more cold air being modeled to work with now. Those earlier solutions just didn't make much sense given the time of year and air mass north of the border. I anticipate some more surprises, but have no idea if they will benefit those of us in the LOT zones. My gut tells me not to expect much snow out of this storm, but it's all a learning process.

edit: looks like I'm getting a WSW for slop & a few inches of snow. That's as good a guess as any, I suppose. Ballsy LOT map:

v1l7a0c.png

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WSW for all of MKX.

 

 

321 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ONLY A THIN LAYER OF ICE IS NEEDED TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

 

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