ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yeah, if he doesn't see 6"+, someone just north and west of him will, and perhaps up to 10" somewhere in SE Iowa. Wish it were me stupid just-east-of-des-moines-county -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 29.5° and still falling here. FYI: I will be home for this whole event. Mid 20s in Mc Henry County already with precipitation up to Springfield almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow talk about a gradient in SEMI KTTF which is Monroe is sitting at 36/36, Lambertville (KDUH) 14 miles to the SW, is 55/54 Impressive. Big picture view: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Haha! That's about right. I'm sure Justin, and the folks at DVN feel the same way lol. This is a nightmare laying out where the main snow axis is going to be...pretty much have GFS and Euro in one camp, NAM and SREF, and other short range stuff further W. Sweating like I'm on my wedding night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Impressive. Big picture view: Left my house in Spring Lake, MI with 30 degrees and freezing rain falling on a six inch snowpack to Spring and 50s at my sis in law's house in Pittsburgh. So strange to get in the car with a coat on and get out 7 hours later with a t shirt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Looking at some high res maps for this its really crazy how widespread of an area is forecasted to be within a like a degree or two of the freezing mark. Stupid tough forecast for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 One of worst entire model suite performances in recent memories. No, that goes to 2/6/11. 2/6/11 makes the model performance with this system seem excellent in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No, that goes to 2/6/11. 2/6/11 makes the model performance with this system seem excellent in comparison. what happened there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No, that goes to 2/6/11. 2/6/11 makes the model performance with this system seem excellent in comparison. The funny thing is the models haven't been way off from where they were when we started seriously tracking this thing, perhaps about 90 miles northwest of the consenus, but the flip flops back and forth, NW, SE, NW, SE, combined with the models diverging in the last 24 hours makes for a dizzying pattern of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No, that goes to 2/6/11. 2/6/11 makes the model performance with this system seem excellent in comparison. hoping we get a pleasant surprise like we did with that one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No, that goes to 2/6/11. 2/6/11 makes the model performance with this system seem excellent in comparison. And for folks who have been around for a while, 12/24/02. It's easy to give the models a pass in borderline situations (getting more mixing than expected when you're supposed to be just north of the rain/snow line, etc) but last minute 100-200 mile bodily shifts, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Well I did say recent memory... I mean can barely remember what I had for breakfast this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Precip exploding this evening. Huge swath of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That's nasty looking^ Wave spinning it's way towards western TX now. Water vapor loop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Already over 2800 posts on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That's nasty looking^ Wave spinning it's way towards western TX now. Water vapor loop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Already over 2800 posts on this system. Very impressive looking. This moisture laden system is the kind of thing we dream of when we're in a pattern of moisture starved clippers that take hours to saturate the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow talk about a gradient in SEMI KTTF which is Monroe is sitting at 36/36, Lambertville (KDUH) 14 miles to the SW, is 55/54 And I'm at 33.4 IMBY, crazy. I figure that's about to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 And I'm at 33.4 IMBY, crazy. I figure that's about to go up. No probably go down actually, especially once the NE flow kicks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 And I'm at 33.4 IMBY, crazy. I figure that's about to go up. I've been confusing your avatar with Geos the last several days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 what happened there? As I believe michsnowfreak describes it, the day Detroit picked up 4-6" of Partly Sunny. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0205.php (note the date the thread was started) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/12575-feb-4th-5th-snow-event/ It just goes to show, as bad as the models are doing with this system, they've done MUCH worse recently. The fact that, in the grand scheme of things, they haven't changed from the idea of a moisture-laden winter storm impacting the sub-forum, and there hasn't been any wild swings in the track/temps since earlier this week, is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Still sitting at 32 here. I just stepped out to check the situation and it does not appear to be glazing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 A light coating of ZR has already presented itself in downtown T.O this evening. This very icy initial presentation is a foreboding of possible rare historic weather event here in T.O. I was going to ask what the worst ice storm was for Toronto because none come to my mind. I don't know that much about ice storm history for southern Ontario. Someone from there might be able to answer. I'm also not sure where to post our situation in, this or the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That's nasty looking^ Wave spinning it's way towards western TX now. Water vapor loop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Already over 2800 posts on this system. That is incredible! you can clearly see both disturbances very well defined. def on course to phase very well 12z runs should have a full sampling of both waves so maybe that will eliminate some of the model flip flop. that front def made it pretty south. if that low deepens to fast a more nw path would make sense. kinda hoping for a slowly strengthening system b/c I am on the fine line of seeing cold rain or major ice. man this has been a tough storm to forecast. which model will be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No probably go down actually, especially once the NE flow kicks up. Hmm, I haven't been paying much attention to the storm since the rain prospects kicked up. That might not be too great considering all the water sitting around now. I just assumed a warm front was barging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 KDUH through the roof, up to 57 now. Almost reminds me previous to the 2003 ice storm when the Arctic boundary dropped in south of it was near 70 while north of it was 28-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wonder if we will have to worry about convective elements on the cold side of the storm, convective ZR, PL, SN? If you seen the yesterday as the low was near the baja, there was lightning with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I was going to ask what the worst ice storm was for Toronto because none come to my mind. I don't know that much about ice storm history for southern Ontario. Someone from there might be able to answer. I'm also not sure where to post our situation in, this or the other thread. The most disruptive one I can recall was around Jan 13-14 1968, it came after a heavy snowfall of about 30 cms and caused a lot of tree damage, power was out in some parts of the downtown (university) area for most of a week -- the storm was over a weekend but I recall the University of Toronto being either closed or some cancellations for several days. I was no longer residing in Ontario when the 1998 storm hit, but I remember a few bad ones in the 1980s in Peterborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wonder if we will have to worry about convective elements on the cold side of the storm, convective ZR, PL, SN? If you seen the yesterday as the low was near the baja, there was lightning with it.. check this out: http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wonder if we will have to worry about convective elements on the cold side of the storm, convective ZR, PL, SN? If you seen the yesterday as the low was near the baja, there was lightning with it.. I would say yes, some of the model soundings were showing some elevated instability, and it doesn't take much to get lightning with such strong dynamics that would be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks, Stebo & Roger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Dtx pulls the trigger on ice storm warnings from i69 corridor south to 8 mile road URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 326 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 ...ICE STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPLY JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-69...WITH FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR TO NEAR EIGHT MILE. FOR THE CITY OF DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH...JUST A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. MIZ060>062-211700- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0003.131221T1800Z-131222T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.IS.W.0002.131221T2200Z-131222T1200Z/ SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER 326 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. * THE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE ONSET. * NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADD STRESS TO THE ICE COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. IMPACTS... * ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AS TREE DAMAGE OCCURS. * THIS ICE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. * EXPECT ROADS TO BECOME ICY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.