Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Very tough forecast for the midnight crew. Decent confidence that the Chicago heat island would see less of an issue even if the rest of the metro has a big icing problem. Curious to see what the Euro shows. I think the worst sequence of events would be if temps tonight end up 1-2 degrees colder than progged and precip starts earlier than expected tomorrow...if that happens then it probably increases the ice threat dramatically. I also wonder about the warm layer aloft as forecast soundings look like they could support more of a sleet mixture the farther north you go. If there's going to be a surprise with ice amounts then it may be in the central third or so of the cwa if temps can stay AOB freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Congrats to weatherbo!!! Solid call in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Is it me or is the Euro further southeast and colder at 18z tomorrow? Maybe just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Is it me or is the Euro further southeast and colder at 18z tomorrow? Maybe just slower. Looks that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z ECMWF is coming SE with the deformation snow band. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think the worst sequence of events would be if temps tonight end up 1-2 degrees colder than progged and precip starts earlier than expected tomorrow...if that happens then it probably increases the ice threat dramatically. I also wonder about the warm layer aloft as forecast soundings look like they could support more of a sleet mixture the farther north you go. If there's going to be a surprise with ice amounts then it may be in the central third or so of the cwa if temps can stay AOB freezing. Actually checking radar now and comparing to models, there is an area of precip moving through MO and into IL that the models are not picking up or are too slow with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 850mb's are just below freezing at the starting of the main event here. GFS at that. Going to be interesting that's for sure. Down to 29° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Good lord, these models aren't gonna decide on a path even 1 hour out..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 my gut says the consensus will be a blend of the euro and gfs...toss the nam I bet that's where we are headed. all the wfo's will grit their teeth, duck under the table, cover their heads, and hope they made a good guess. the lack of agreement so close to this thing starting is unreal. absolutely unreal. our winds here have started turning W instead of NW temps continue going down... 26.3 here now. that front though should be just about to put on the brakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Depending on ratios, the Euro looks like 3-4" here. 850's not nearly as warm as previous runs at the onset of precip. DPA 850mb temp is 0.2 deg C tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z ECMWF is coming SE with the deformation snow band. lol One of worst entire model suite performances in recent memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Rain has begun here and we are sitting at 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'll go with 1" at ORD and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z ECMWF is coming SE with the deformation snow band. lol I have access to the maps but i dont have access to the raw data, lol. What does it show for Toronto? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z ECMWF is coming SE with the deformation snow band. lol Odds these models are right or the NAM scoring the win of the century. I mean honestly the NAM and all the NAM clowns (SREF) could not be any further from the global models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Keep in mind that the wave was in Mexico for the 00z runs which could explain some of the bouncing around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Odds these models are right or the NAM scoring the win of the century. I mean honestly the NAM and all the NAM clowns (SREF) could not be any further from the global models at this point. To be continued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Guess I'll stick this morning's first call of 3-6" for here and the QC. Was thinking earlier we may be on the low end of that, but a few models indicate 6"+, so who knows. Definitely a tricky system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z ECMWF is coming SE with the deformation snow band. lol cyclone jackpot? can just see him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Keep in mind that the wave was in Mexico for the 00z runs which could explain some of the bouncing around... Yea, I was just about to mention that. The main vort and jet have stayed offshore or in Mexico at the base of the trough, so I woudn't be surprised if things change a tad once again with the 12z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 cyclone jackpot? can just see him Haha! That's about right. I'm sure Justin, and the folks at DVN feel the same way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Odds these models are right or the NAM scoring the win of the century. I mean honestly the NAM and all the NAM clowns (SREF) could not be any further from the global models at this point. I believe the NAM has often been right when being such an outlier. Hopefully not this time. The Canadian seems to be further NW as well...or North. Well, I came "home" to visit family in PA for the week, so I will be missing this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 I have access to the maps but i dont have access to the raw data, lol. What does it show for Toronto? Thanks! Unfortunately I don't get the text data anymore at this point in time. Looks like mostly FZRA, with some RA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Unfortunately I don't get the text data at this point in time anymore. Looks like mostly FZRA, with some RA though. Yeah same, lol. And thanks. Seems like its similar to the GGEM and GFS then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow talk about a gradient in SEMI KTTF which is Monroe is sitting at 36/36, Lambertville (KDUH) 14 miles to the SW, is 55/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 cyclone jackpot? can just see him Yeah, if he doesn't see 6"+, someone just north and west of him will, and perhaps up to 10" somewhere in SE Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Yea, I was just about to mention that. The main vort and jet have stayed offshore or in Mexico at the base of the trough, so I woudn't be surprised if things change a tad once again with the 12z's. At that point it becomes more about the hi-res models anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 At that point it becomes more about the hi-res models anyway. Eh. Sometimes. Not with every case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Very tough forecast for the midnight crew. Decent confidence that the Chicago heat island would see less of an issue even if the rest of the metro has a big icing problem. Curious to see what the Euro shows. I think the worst sequence of events would be if temps tonight end up 1-2 degrees colder than progged and precip starts earlier than expected tomorrow...if that happens then it probably increases the ice threat dramatically. I also wonder about the warm layer aloft as forecast soundings look like they could support more of a sleet mixture the farther north you go. If there's going to be a surprise with ice amounts then it may be in the central third or so of the cwa if temps can stay AOB freezing. Strongly agreed. I've been worried about the icing threat because we lock in the north northeast flow.Going to be a true nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 cyclone jackpot? can just see him You are sitting in a damn good spot yourself unlike here in the tropics down in southern MS oops MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.