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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Do you expect power outages in north Toronto, Markham and Richmond hill?

 

I'm no electrician but its quite possible. I remember during the 2009 Tornado outbreak in the GTA I lost power for 5 hours but on the other hand I was spared from the worst (Tornado), 

 

Already seeing freezing rain in my area and the ground is slippery everywhere. Hbu? 

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I'm no electrician but its quite possible. I remember during the 2009 Tornado outbreak in the GTA I lost power for 5 hours but on the other hand I was spared from the worst (Tornado), 

 

Already seeing freezing rain in my area and the ground is slippery everywhere. Hbu? 

The sidewalks are a sheet of ice in my area.

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Good luck to everyone with this storm. We are in the process of our 3 inches of rain and 4 straight days of 40 Degrees+. The 2 foot+ snowpack will be gone by sunday evening. But I am not really to mad, as this will help immensely in unfreezing whatever ice began to build up on lake erie. We should be good for another month+ of lake effect possibilities! Hopefully some people in this forum can cash in on some snow, and good luck to those who are going to see ice. ( I don't want any ice here)

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here in lake county will be lucky to get 1-2 inches.

 

If rooting on a GFS/EURO blend. I don't trust the NAM. 

 

Almost time to stop watching the models.

 

Temperatures that are feeding into the area now.

 

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I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing.

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0Z GFS/GGEM look crucifying for the GTA. Seems like they both paint the same picture as did the 0z Nam. Looks like rain to start along the Lake shore before it quickly transitions over to ZR and no sign of any PL. This would be treacherous. I recommend to my fellow GTA posters, to stay safe and keep all the emergency kits handy. 

 

A light coating of ZR has already presented itself in downtown T.O this evening.

This very icy initial presentation is a foreboding of possible rare historic weather event here in T.O.

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I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing.

 

Such a borderline setup for much of the LOT cwa.  I was looking at forecast soundings and surface wetbulbs are literally within a few tenths of 0C either way in a good chunk of the cwa for much of the event. 

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Down to 32 here and still falling. P&C has me at 32 tomorrow and 31 tomorrow night. Wonder if the guys in the LOT office are also thinking the forecasted temps might be too high. RCNYILWX?

Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface.

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I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing.

 

Such a borderline setup for much of the LOT cwa.  I was looking at forecast soundings and surface wetbulbs are literally within a few tenths of 0C either way in a good chunk of the cwa for much of the event. 

Very tough forecast for the midnight crew. Decent confidence that the Chicago heat island would see less of an issue even if the rest of the metro has a big icing problem. Curious to see what the Euro shows.

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Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface.

 

What are your thoughts about Milwaukee?  Are we likely to stay all snow, at least once you get 5 miles inland?  I saw the NAM, while 850 and 2m temps were likely below throughout, really lingered some of the upper level warmth, or so it looked on Earl Barker's maps.

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00Z run from my model shows reasonable amounts of ZR (at least compared to the craptastic NAM - this model used the 18Z NAM for BC's). I would eventually like to use GFS BC's, but thats another story.

Cool... You put output for that online anywhere or just run and view it on your own

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Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface.

 

What are your thoughts about Milwaukee?  Are we likely to stay all snow, at least once you get 5 miles inland?  I saw the NAM, while 850 and 2m temps were likely below throughout, really lingered some of the upper level warmth, or so it looked on Earl Barker's maps.

Didn't look too closely at MKE but you should be okay up there. Would think there would be enough wet bulbing to keep the column AOB from freezing and favor mainly snow. Will have to watch where exactly the dry slot wraps in and if it makes it all the way up there, would result in a lull overnight tomorrow night before the deformation band comes across.

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