WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It is going to be an interesting situation unfolding. I feel like a lot of the public is going to be caught off guard if it unfolds like the models are saying because the weather was barely a mention on all 4 evening news casts. As well almost all of them are saying Toronto will be predominately rain with the worst in the North, West and East. I would also caution against Rain being thrown out the window. Im personally not worried (though prepared, batteries, water, ext) because from previous borderline events the Lakeshore escapes. South of the 403/QEW has a good chance to see mostly rain. Models are trending colder and as stated already, many locales are under performing with temps quite significantly. I think a PL event is more likely than a plain rain event. Sadly, my money is on a predominantly ZR event. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.5" of ice accretion out of this, if not more. This is a "Category 5" (out of 5) ice storm as per TWC's stupid little scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Such a useless model... It is the fact that it doesn't make sense conceptually, right? A low to C Indiana and then what looks like the thumb of Michigan shouldn't be torching the upper layers all the way to Madison and Sheboygan, and giving Omaha the back edge of a healthy defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks guys for the info. I'm officially rooting for rain for YYZ. As awesome as it would be to witness the headache is too much. Just got in. Went out a couple of hours ago when there was no icing. It is a glaze of freezing rain now in T O. Wood, metal, concrete, some pavement glazed Did hear odd ping here and there. Usually I am rightfully a pessimist to the hype for possible T.O events WOW, it looks like it could be a once or twice in a half century event for T.O. It has already started bit which i didn't expect. Sure feels like something memorable is going to happen even in downtown Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow, I'm checking this while on break at work. Sounds really bad for Toronto. Once more on to the breach dear friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Already below freezing here downtown. Colder than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Models are trending colder and as stated already, many locales are under performing with temps quite significantly. I think a PL event is more likely than a plain rain event. Sadly, my money is on a predominantly ZR event. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.5" of ice accretion out of this, if not more. This is a "Category 5" (out of 5) ice storm as per TWC's stupid little scale. I know that everything has trended cooler but theres already a significant difference in weather developing across the GTA. Good luck to you guys. I put the line of significant icing north of the 403. Between the QEW-403 ill say its a decent icing and those of us along the lakeshore this is minor event. We will have to wait and see. Someone will be busting hard. Either the hype of the models or all the new channels/media in Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Nowcasting indicates zr rates currently up to .10 to .20 inch per hr. for at least several hours throughout sections of OK into sw MO per SPC meso discussion. This storm may still hold surprises for us in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 if it's colder , than more ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z hi-res NAM moves the heaviest snow back into central to northeast Iowa, and here's DMX's new update. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA900 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013UPDATE REGARDING THE WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. TRENDS CONTINUEA BIT FARTHER NW WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z NAM UPPER LEVELENERGY NEARLY IN PHASE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT INTREMENDOUS QG FORCING OVERRIDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTIOWA AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES. SLOPED FORCING WILLRESULT IN THE FORCING OCCURRING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC ZONE FARTHERNW INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND THIS WILL BE THE REGION WITH THE GREATESTSNOW RATIOS. DESPITE HIGH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER THESOUTHEAST...A LESS FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE MAY RESULT IN THEHIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...EXCELLENTISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD FORCE MOISTURE WELLINTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE DRY WEDGE TO THE NORTHWEST STILL LIKELYWILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A SHARP CUTOFF. WIND GUSTS ONSUNDAY OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOWLEVEL BLOWING SNOW AND WILL KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS THROUGH THATPERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED 8 COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORMWATCH AREA ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Every model is now in unison of 1"+ for the GTA and surrounding areas. The question now is whether we see 1-2.5" of ice accretion. Brutal on the low and high ends of that scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z hi-res NAM moves the heaviest snow back into central to northeast Iowa, and here's DMX's new update. Always amazes me that a professional weather office will make changes on one model run. Particularly an unreliable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z hi-res NAM moves the heaviest snow back into central to northeast Iowa, and here's DMX's new update. My loss is your gain. Congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z RGEM shows heaviest snows from Des Moines through Wateroo/Dubuque up to Madison, and then up to around weatherbo. Keeps QC in sleet/freezing rain through 1am, followed by a brief burst of snow. NAM and RGEM aren't too great for northern IL, lets see how the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Actually, I'm torn. The storm tracking part of me wants a major storm of some sort, but the family part of me wants a minor storm so the girlfriend can get to work safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00z RGEM shows heaviest snows from Des Moines through Wateroo/Dubuque up to Madison, and then up to around weatherbo. Keeps QC in sleet/freezing rain through 1am, followed by a brief burst of snow. NAM and RGEM aren't too great for northern IL, lets see how the GFS does. I'm also hearing that one Omaha met is saying the NAM and RGEM are in error because they are initializing wrong information regarding the position of the system. This is just heresay from another forum, but if true, it adds another chapter to this drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Actually, I'm torn. The storm tracking part of me wants a major storm of some sort, but the family part of me wants a minor storm so the girlfriend can get to work safe. That's grounds for being banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No significant differences on the 00zGFS EDIT: Less cold sector QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Always amazes me that a professional weather office will make changes on one model run. Particularly an unreliable model. MKX has a bad habit of doing this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 That's grounds for being banned. If genuinely caring about family is grounds for being banned, sue me, but I've seen worse. In any case, over here in Raritan its slick as heck. We've lost most all of the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If genuinely caring about family is grounds for being banned, sue me, but I've seen worse. In any case, over here in Raritan its slick as heck. We've lost most all of the snowpack. he's joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 20s filtering into the area tonight. Going to be interesting to see how far they get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 he's joking... Sarcasm lost on me. Never did understand it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If genuinely caring about family is grounds for being banned, sue me, but I've seen worse. In any case, over here in Raritan its slick as heck. We've lost most all of the snowpack. Sarcasm on this end, dude. But you'll learn. Wait till severe season. BTW...welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 20s filtering into the area tonight. Going to be interesting to see how far they get tonight. Push those 20's down past I-88. My thermo has been stuck between 33 and 34 all day. It's annoying. Currently at 33.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Sarcasm on this end, dude. But you'll learn. Wait till severe season. BTW...welcome aboard. Lol sorry man, wasn't picking up the sarcasm, pretty bad at it. Thanks for the welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Push those 20's down past I-88. My thermo has been stuck between 33 and 34 all day. It's annoying. Currently at 33.6. Crashed hard up here, 26.7 with freezing fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z GFS nw with the ZR , Toronto again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 winter storm Gemini? Wow. Now I remember why I don't watch that channel.....ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0Z GFS/GGEM look crucifying for the GTA. Seems like they both paint the same picture as did the 0z Nam. Looks like rain to start along the Lake shore before it quickly transitions over to ZR and no sign of any PL. This would be treacherous. I recommend to my fellow GTA posters, to stay safe and keep all the emergency kits handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0Z GFS/GGEM look crucifying for the GTA. Seems like they both paint the same picture as did the 0z Nam. Looks like rain to start along the Lake shore before it quickly transitions over to ZR and no sign of any PL. This would be treacherous. I recommend to my fellow GTA posters, to stay safe and keep all the emergency kits handy. Do you expect power outages in north Toronto, Markham and Richmond hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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